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#1 |
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No Low Draft Classes = Huge Player Turnover in Small Leagues
I don't mean to be an ass, but there's no feedback in the suggestions forum and I do think this toes the line as being a technical issue, because it does make a no-minors league borderline unplayable.
I'll try and get some concrete results posted tomorrow or the next day, but by making drafts a minimum of five rounds any league without minors if it is to run a draft gets bombarded with young players, causing older players to retire earlier, unless you set massive roster sizes. I don't think it's too much of a big ask for Patch 2 to offer smaller draft sizes. |
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#2 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Why not just disable draft and have new players come into the league as free agents?
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#3 | |
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Quote:
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#4 |
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Well, my guess is that it was set to insure that a league won't run out of players (i.e. have more retiring than entering). However, I think 5 is definitely a bit high. I would think a minimum of 2 rounds would likely keep a sufficient number of players around in a league without minors.
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#5 |
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Some results: 8 year sim, 1 league, 1 div, six teams, five round draft:
Assuming 40 players kept after original draft, 40 draftees since, thus meaning every combined below 80 can be guessed retired/retired injured (using RMY's injury file, so should be minimal). Obviously, not all retired can be linked to age, many may have retired due to being released and not being picked up. However, it's important that we indicate there is big turnover going on, and that there is a shortage of older players. Atlanta Arsenal: 25 on roster, 25 on reserve; 30 presumed retired 6 on active roster >30; 5 on reserve >30 Boston Baboons, 25 on roster, 24 on reserve, 31 presumed retired 7 on active roster>30; 6 on reserve>30 El Paso; 25, 18, presumed retired 37 5 on active roster, 4 on reserve Los Angeles, 25 on active, 31 on reserve, 24 pr. ret. 4 on active roster, none on reserve roster New Orleans, 25 on active, 27 on reserve, 28 presumed ret. 8 on active roster, 2 on reserve Pheonix, 25 on active, 25 reserve, 30 presumed ret. 6 on active, 3 on reserve To make a little more sense of this, the average team has six players over 30. That's not shocking, although it's too few, but what gets me is that because of the lack of players on the reserve lists, of 300 players in the league, only 56 are over 30, and 170 players have disappeared from the game. Considering the evidence, it seems wise to link the two together - all the old people are leaving, quickly. Moreover, we're only eight years in here. This is very rough working, but it's just intended as a quick guide to show that a big draft for a small league means that veterans disappear quicker, and too quickly. Within 8 years, the league is well on its way to having been completely refreshed. I'll update after the next ten years, and see the average ages. EDIT: The basic point is that even after only eight years of five-round draft, a league without minors will have a huge player turnover and a shortage of veterans. My theory is after 15-20 years, players over 30 will become a virtual rarity.
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tThis shower of clowns My park-adjusted, historically split Born in '69 league file! (also at Joe's wonderful site +BBSC) Last edited by dougaiton; 06-20-2006 at 04:18 PM. |
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#6 |
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Join Date: Nov 2003
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Two test sims, with the default FBL. No settings changed (also using my injuries.txt). Only difference is # of draft rounds. Run for 10 years, do SQL dump, check ages of players on active roster.
Sim 1 (5 draft rounds) Code:
Age Players 18 0 19 3 20 6 21 14 22 13 23 34 24 40 25 30 26 48 27 34 28 27 29 22 30 23 31 15 32 22 33 31 34 11 35 9 36 8 37 4 38 1 39 2 40 0 41 3 Sim 2 (10 draft rounds) Code:
Age Players 18 0 19 0 20 6 21 21 22 16 23 23 24 38 25 40 26 54 27 52 28 34 29 18 30 19 31 19 32 12 33 17 34 9 35 8 36 4 37 4 38 2 39 1 40 1 41 2 Hardly conclusive, but 0.5 years difference in the average is hardly insignificant either. Also a sharper decline after the age of 27/28. Decided to do another, 20 player draft this time. Sim 3 (20 draft rounds) Code:
Age Players 18 0 19 1 20 1 21 8 22 10 23 34 24 53 25 31 26 46 27 71 28 33 29 20 30 18 31 14 32 9 33 17 34 11 35 13 36 4 37 2 38 1 39 1 40 1 41 0 42 0 43 1 Average age up a little, but even greater concentration of players around 24-28 and a more rapid tailoff. Still got the saves, so I might run these for another decade or so later.
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#7 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 241
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Just curious why did you run a league without any minors? What was your roster size? 40?
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#8 | |
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Quote:
Thanks very much - I'm going to try another ten years on mine to the point the league is 100% draftees rather than startup players. I am quite cheered by your results, because that looks like a semi-normal age distribution.
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tThis shower of clowns My park-adjusted, historically split Born in '69 league file! (also at Joe's wonderful site +BBSC) Last edited by dougaiton; 06-21-2006 at 03:47 AM. |
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#9 | |
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#10 | |
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Quote:
I'm having a look at a 20year sim right now and the results seem pretty darn stable. I'm honestly impressed, I thought (percieved?) from my first few sims that this would be a game breaker. It's all a little illusory, because the reserve roster covers a lot of sins, and I do think a smaller draft would lead to more older players kicking about on the reserve roster and getting longer careers. My initial fears may have been too hasty. The OOTP6 simming engine is an impressive beast indeed. |
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#11 |
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Alas, I think I can confirm an issue I read elsewhere. Too many players (which you do get, after 100 years) appears to break the SQL export - stuck at exactly the 37% point someone else reported.
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#12 |
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Well, my twenty year sim has me a little worried. I hate Access, and wish I was at work with SPSS, but here's my age distribution for a 20 year sim.
Code:
age Count Of Players 18 7 19 10 20 12 21 19 22 30 23 31 24 22 25 24 26 20 27 25 28 21 29 24 30 21 31 17 32 15 33 7 34 5 35 5 36 5 37 2 39 1 41 2 The reserve roster is of course the problem here, and I wish I could switch it off. Nevertheless, the point is clear, a five-round draft means older players get flushed out of the reserve league too quickly, meaning that they lose the chance to play on longer. I'll have a look at the teams and have a think.
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tThis shower of clowns My park-adjusted, historically split Born in '69 league file! (also at Joe's wonderful site +BBSC) Last edited by dougaiton; 06-21-2006 at 07:37 AM. |
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#13 |
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Yeah, all 41 and 39 year olds are legacies of the inaugural draft.
The way I see it is that the unescapable Reserve Roster favours young players rather than older ones, quite sensibly. With a five round draft, however, it gets full up of 22-25 year olds, with virtually no veterans, which in turn means there are no vets to call up as the season progresses. By the end of a season, most roster in the league has 6 or more under -23s. Bring shorter drafts!
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tThis shower of clowns My park-adjusted, historically split Born in '69 league file! (also at Joe's wonderful site +BBSC) Last edited by dougaiton; 06-21-2006 at 07:39 AM. |
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#14 |
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Uhhh.... that's a bit odd.
No reserve roster has more than 1 SP on it. Some have 6+ catchers, yes, but no starters. Hmm... |
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#15 |
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Qualitative stuff, now. I looked at three of the teams in 2024, who had 12 retirements between them. Of these retirements, three I'd consider natural retirements:
Alanzo Lechuca, retired at 37 Bienvenido Coarra, retired at 34 M. Nuncz, retired at 35 The rest I would call forced retirements – players with capable skill levels, and skill levels better than their compatriots on the reserve roster, well below retirement age. Name, Age, Ratings, Notes SS B. Ussery, 30, 10/10/1/8, had 10 seasons service for big team MR J. Kinneir, 30 5/3/12 - 10 seasons service, last season 5.9 VORP MR J. Yeley, 30 11/8/9 pitched six years of positive VORP ball in the majors SS J. Strickland, 28, 7/9/4/8/7 SS M. McMires, 28, 7,7,2,10,10 SP J. Ballard, 32, 4/13/5 - 12 years as a starter in the majors SS J. Bertemarti, 30, 8/13/3/10 - signed a 500k per year extension 1 month before retiring! MR K. Ushiyami, 30, 7/13/7 C K. Sor, 28, 7/12/7/10 Obviously, the ratings are just for illustrative purposes, and to show that these guys, weren’t just walking stiffs. Of the 12 retirements, 3 looked like natural retirements, while, IMO, the others were players who had a record of major league service and most importantly ratings good enough to stay in the organisation. One had just signed an extention and, although he had missed the season before with injury, had put up a .746 OPS year at SS in the bigs the year before that. Rather predictably, the game force-retires players on the reserve roster regardless of their ability as long as they are a) over 26 and b) didn't have any ABs at the major league level the season just finished. These players were all of a decent level, had a track record in the majors (although not necessarily a good one) and hadn't ever been released by the AI. Only one was over 30. The problem of this approach, as to culling bad prospects, is three fold: a) Decent players stuck on reserve rosters are wiped from the game, as one season with ML ABs will probably result in instant retirement. b) The league becomes artificially young, because all the backups are young. The chance of any non-regular veteran establishing themselves are minimal. Almost all of these players got their major league start at 20. c) There reserve roster does not resemble a roster at all. By making arbitrary retirements on the basis of age, rather than releasing bad young players, the reserve roster gets skewed in favour of positions that often get called up to the majors. Thus, the vast majority of reserve rosters consist of middle relievers and backup catchers, but only a couple (if any) starting pitchers because these are very rarely called up into action, the AI seems to prefer to bring up reserve MRs and convert one of the ML relievers back to an SP. This in turn is cyclical: when the big club’s SPs get injured, there are none in the reserve roster so they instead select a MR. So I see three things here: 1) A five round draft fills the reserve roster with young players, and the game needs to force retire players to maintain this. The league gets artificially young - almost all these players had played upwards of 8 or 9 years in the majors, most starting at 20. 2) Forced retirements are bad things if it forces decent players out of the game while really bad young players (5th round draftees, for example) are not cut. Remember, these are reserve roster players that the AI considers good enough not to release. 3) There is no 'reserve roster AI', so reserve rosters become storing pools for young MRs and Cs, rather than players that could actually help the AI at times of crisis. So there are three solutions, IMO: 1) Give us the option for smaller draft classes 2) Replace force-retirements with releases into the FA pool, meaning that decent 28 year olds with track records of decent MLB service don't simply disappear. 3) Impose 'sensible' roster limits on the reserve roster; if someone needs force-retired, make it the fourth backup catcher, not the only SP on the reserve roster. The reserve roster, if possible, should be made optional, as well. Most needed is the option for <5 round drafts. I could write a whole other post about how these individuals all got starts in the major |
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#16 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Quote:
And the problem wasn't that the teams were stocking their reserve rosters with position players...they only had about 3 on average per team, plus a couple of pitchers. At any rate, the percentage of position players being spawned as free agents seemed to be way, way too low. Made for extremely long player careers, at least. ![]() |
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#17 |
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I've posted more about this in the other thread. This, IMO, is a bit of a gamebreaker.
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#18 |
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This is the thread!
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=124890 |
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#19 |
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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OK, next on my list of threads to resurrect...this one!
I know you guys put a lot of effort into this. Can anyone tell me if this issue persists in patch 1.0.2? Thanks, Steve |
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#20 |
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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We have a rule that states that Tech Support threads wherein we have not received a response within 7 days will be closed.
This one meets this criteria, so I'm closing this. If you want to discuss it again, just PM me with the thread link, and I'll re-open. (Don't just say "Hey, reopen my thread." I need to know the URL, thanks!) Steve |
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