Finding Cheap Pitching

[JCarter93]

Going into my second year in rebuilding an online team that was 50 million in debt. I've found ways to generate offense, but finding bargain pitching is a challenge, mostly because I am unsure of what to look for. I'm not looking for all-stars, but just pitchers that can hold the line for a season or two until my farm system ramps up.

What stats should I be looking at to evaluate pitchers? How do you find the hidden pitching gem that other managers might miss?

[ThatSeventiesGuy]

I go after 3+ star guys that have been in the minors for a bit. Almost always seems to get you 10-15 wins as a 3rd to 5th starter. ERAs and other stats vary, but usually aren't too bad. Maybe they pitch better because they're happy to finally be out of the minors, or maybe it's just because my teams tend to be pretty good, I don't know, but it usually works.

[JCarter93]

Originally Posted by ThatSeventiesGuy

I go after 3+ star guys that have been in the minors for a bit. Almost always seems to get you 10-15 wins as a 3rd to 5th starter. ERAs and other stats vary, but usually aren't too bad. Maybe they pitch better because they're happy to finally be out of the minors, or maybe it's just because my teams tend to be pretty good, I don't know, but it usually works.

I appreciate the suggestion, but what metrics (FIP, BABIP, etc) should I use to evaluate talent? Bear in mind also that this is an online league and prying 3 star pitchers out of a human GM's hands is kind of difficult. I'm trying to find pitchers that might be overlooked at a casual glance; some hidden talent guy that I might be able to wrestle from an unsuspecting GM. Because I'm evil.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Is scouting on? Accuracy? Stats only?

[JCarter93]

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

Is scouting on? Accuracy? Stats only?

Scouting, standard accuracy I believe, but I prefer to use stats because let's face it, not everyone does, and I find the star ratings lie.

[TomVeal]

Originally Posted by JCarter93

Scouting, standard accuracy I believe, but I prefer to use stats because let's face it, not everyone does, and I find the star ratings lie.

In real life, BABIP for pitchers is a measure of luck and the fielding behind them, not of the pitcher's own ability. I like the simple RA/9 or WHIP. FIP is also enlightening.

So far as ratings go, I think that Stuff and Control are most useful. For starting pitchers, one should look at the individual pitches; a guy with only two won't last as a starter unless both are pretty terrific.

The star ratings are helpful, I think, for identifying players who deserve a closer look.

[fsclb66]

If your struggling to find good pitchers on the market you could try upgrading your defense, great defense at 2nd and short plus a groundball oriented staff can save quite a few runs

[Orcin]

K/BB ratio
IP / start
Quality start %

[TGH-Adfabre]

All of my pitching assessment starts with BABIP. It puts the rest in context. I would look for pitchers with high ERAs who have correspondingly high BABIP. If you can see if you can check the defense behind them. Probably not going to happen for relievers but SP you can look at the team they were on. If other GMs are not paying attention you will be able to sign players whose stats were high because of factors other than their pitching.
When doing this you are going to want to know GB/FB ratios to weigh OF defense vs IF defense.

[Izz]

FIP is most important for me, and i also look at WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB. BABIP is useful for knowing if a pitcher is having an unusually good, or unusually bad, season.

And if you've got great infield defense, invest in groundball pitchers.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by Izz

FIP is most important for me, and i also look at WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB. BABIP is useful for knowing if a pitcher is having an unusually good, or unusually bad, season.

And if you've got great infield defense, invest in groundball pitchers.

You can find Gold Gloves easy and cheap. I would play great fielding SS and 2B as long as you have solid bats at the corners. That should help your pitching. Also, and this may be debatable, get a Catcher with a high C ability. I find that rating helps keep ERA's down.

[tejdog1]

FIP. I love FIP. But you need a good infield for that, usually.

[ThatSeventiesGuy]

I don't go in for the fancy stats stuff much. Mostly just groundball guys with decent ratings get the job done for me.

[HomerOne]

I noticed that after playing a season that there tends to be much more cheap pitching available during the offseason. I tend to look at a pitcher's age, past performance, control, leadership abilities, etc. During one replay, I took a shot on Tommy Hanson and signed him to a minor-league contract. He won 15 games, had an ERA under 3 and did pretty good for my big-league club until late in the season when he struggled.

[Number4]

I've had great success with the following strategy:

I went for those guys who aren't considered traditional starters (low stamina or weak third pitch), converted them to starters. They absolutely should be ground ball pitchers. They want reliever money, so that is a lot of budget room to invest in batters and bullpen.

You absolutely want gold glovers at second and short. Try to get at least one good or decent offensive batter in one of those positions, second should be easier, but depends on who is in your organisation or on the market. The other guy can be one of those young "can't hit well, but great defense, speed (and maybe bunting)" guys you usually pay only half a million. Have another such guy on the bench, so you can pinch-hit for him in important situations and have a comparable replacement coming in. Edit: Should be a lefty and righty platoon - remember you want the most bang for low bucks.


You will lose some matches with those guys, no question. My best starters have ERAs about 3-4, my 4th and 5th starters right now about 7, all behind a great defense. Not good, yes, but that is for a payroll of below 15 millon - one single good traditional starter costs more.

But if you have a good, high-stamina bullpen, they'll take over.

And that money from cheap starters got me 2 speedy, .350 hitting leadoff guys, the maybe best hitter of the league cleaning up, strong guys at 3rd, 5th-7th and a decent hitter at 8th. The only batting weakness is at 9th, but that is solved by pinch hitting.

Got me a win-loss ratio of over 2:1 at the moment. I'm looking to improve my starters of course, but right now, with that results in my first real OOTP season, I'm quite content.

[harrumph]

Originally Posted by Orcin

K/BB ratio
IP / start
Quality start %

This. FIP is good, but I think it's best to look at the components of FIP (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) individually so you can tailor your choices to your team's strengths and weaknesses. Got a bunch of butchers for infielders? A guy with a not-so-great FIP because he gives up a lot of homers might actually be a decent choice, if he's got good K/BB numbers. Etc. etc.

And for what you're looking for I doubt there's anything more important than IP. Anybody who can consistently throw 200+ innings in a season will be a godsend in the rotation, no matter how mediocre his stats or peripherals look. It's self-selecting: anybody who can go deep into the game often enough to average 6 IP/start must be a pretty decent pitcher—otherwise he'd be getting hooked. Even if he gives you pedestrian numbers himself, he saves the bullpen wear and tear and improves the team's overall performance.

Also, a very OOTP-specific strategy: look for young guys who are projected as "borderline starters," specifically guys who have great ratings all around but only two good pitches; they'll usually have one amazing fastball, one amazing breaking ball (often a slider), and one mediocre or downright terrible breaking ball (usually a curve or change). You can pick them up for peanuts (other teams will value them as relievers) and convert them into excellent starters—for a few years. As soon as their velocity starts to come down, they'll tank as starters (you can often send them back to the bullpen successfully).

[MrDov]

When I go bargain bin shopping for SP I generally try to target unlucky players and bet on a bounce back year. I look for low FIP paired with a high BABIP. Ideally someone like that would have an inflated ERA and other similar stats and be cheaper. This may be preference, but I also like targeting control guys with low walk rates as opposed to a stuff guy with impressive K numbers but a higher than ideal walk rate. On top of all this, I do my best to target guys who don't get hurt. The last thing you want to do is lose your guy halfway through the season when (I'm assuming) you don't have the depth to cover that loss.

[fhomess]

I have no trouble finding cheap pitchers... it's the performance they struggle with.

Seriously, though, I go for high control. I'd much rather they give up 30 solo home runs than 12 3-run bombs because they walked everyone. Plus, guys who don't walk batters will go comparatively deeper into games reducing workload on the bullpen. When rebuilding, ask around about older AAA guys that don't figure into a team's plans. You can often get them below market value and plug them in as stopgaps while waiting for your prospects to develop.

[chazzycat]

I play as the giants so I try to go for flyball pitchers who get undervalued by giving up homers in bandbox stadiums (like how the giants got peavy in real life whose numbers were inflated by fenway then he pitched to a 2+ ERA in SF). Movement isn't as important if you play in a pitchers flyball park, so you can cheat on that a little for extra stuff and control.

But in general pay way more attention to the ratings for individual pitchers rather than the overall rating. 3 decent pitches makes a good starter, you can find this on players with only 1.5 star overall rating sometimes. Scott Kazmir is a guy I picked up in my recent game for example. With solid infield defense and catcher, he's putting up all star type numbers.

[Tram2Whitaker]

If this is a MLB game, seriously look at Rule 5 pitchers; I mean, you have to look out, because sometimes the A.I. waive veterans with big contracts, but for the most part they're on minor league deals. Take a few with you into spring training (where you can see them in action), and if they don't work, you can release them back to their home teams (total cost $0, because unlike in real life, they don't charge you the $50K for the pick). If you find that gem, he's yours for the low-low price of league minimum ($502K). Every version of this game, I've done this in the early stages of my dynasty, and every time I've found at least one.