Player of the Game logic

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

So turn it into a popularity contest? No thanks.


Fans will always vote a home team player, bias that isn't needed in the game.

Then maybe who they guys on the Network (not local broadcast) post-game show would choose

I seem to notice a semi-common theme of something like this:
The starting pitcher on the losing team pitched well, but nothing spectacular, the starter on the eventually winning team pitched poorly, and there are no standouts among the hitters. From looking at the boxscore and having watched the game develop, it becomes obvious to me that the POG was the middle reliever who gave the eventual winners 3 solid scoreless innings, although he didn't get the win because the game was decided after he departed. The game awards the POG to the loser's starter, though. Certainly it's because he had the higher game score, but he wasn't really the POG, if you're thinking from the perspective of more than just raw stats.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by thehef

Then maybe who they guys on the Network (not local broadcast) post-game show would choose

I seem to notice a semi-common theme of something like this:
The starting pitcher on the losing team pitched well, but nothing spectacular, the starter on the eventually winning team pitched poorly, and there are no standouts among the hitters. From looking at the boxscore and having watched the game develop, it becomes obvious to me that the POG was the middle reliever who gave the eventual winners 3 solid scoreless innings, although he didn't get the win because the game was decided after he departed. The game awards the POG to the loser's starter, though. Certainly it's because he had the higher game score, but he wasn't really the POG, if you're thinking from the perspective of more than just raw stats.

I think you're definitely on the right track. The problem, though, is that the POG logic is so "flawed" right now that the POG is going to middle relievers on the losing team on some occasions. Unless the guy went five scoreless in a one-run loss, then it's safe to say someone on the winning team was certainly more deserving. See some of the examples myself and others posted earlier in the thread.

[ToTheBackstop]

Originally Posted by TomVeal

Thinking about this issue further, it occurs to me that the suggestion of a WPA-based system has merit, since it would measure performance in a way that isn't tracked currently. The game already recalculates win probability after every play, so perhaps the programming wouldn't be too daunting.

I raised the issue of the Player Of The Game logic in my introductory post on these forums, so I'm glad to see others noting some of the existing shortcomings. (Disclaimer: the rest of this is mostly rehashing my earlier proposal; also, tldr )

Based on earlier threads, it has become more clear to me that the issue with PotG selections may not be as evident to people who sim their games and review the boxscores afterwards; it's more clear when you actually play out the games and watch them unfold. Since the current PotG algorithm ignores game context (more on that below), it's often difficult to reconcile the selections that appear.

The current OOTP PotG is based on Game Score -- for starting pitchers, it uses Pitching Game Score (using the established methodology for calculating game score; somebody has already linked to it in this thread), which is entirely based on their pitching line, and for batters, it uses "Batting Game Score", which is based on their batting line. (I'm guessing that this is some proprietary formula -- have never seen Batting Game Score methodology published elsewhere -- and don't exactly know how it's calculated, although with enough data points we can probably reverse-engineer it.) And TBH I frankly have no idea how it works with relief pitchers.

Anyway, with the starting pitchers and the batters, it's pretty straightforward -- highest Game Score gets the PotG.

There are a few fundamental issues with this.

1. This approach ignores League Run Environment.

If you're playing in a deadball era, starters are going to regularly throw up superficially impressive pitching lines. As such, Pitching Game Scores are going to regularly be very high (and high Batting Game Scores are going to be infrequent), and PotGs are predominantly going to be a starter.

Conversely, if you're playing in a slugger's paradise, where a 5 AB / 2 R / 3 H / 4 RBI / 1 HR / 1 BB batting line is fairly commonplace, the opposite is going to be true -- you're going to have lots of high Batting Game Scores, few high Pitching Game Scores, and the PotG is going to usually be a batter.

(My current dynasty has a ~9R/G environment, and it seems to be slightly tilted towards starters as PotG)

The problem with ignoring League Run Environment is that impressive individual performances relative to their environment are not recognized. For example, if most games in a league wind up being 2-1 affairs, throwing up a 7 IP / 5 H / 2 ER / 3 BB / 6 K pitching line is no big deal, relatively speaking. But a hitter who goes 2 for 5 with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs has done something noteworthy in this environment, but he's not going to be PotG.

2. This approach ignores game context.

As Game Score is based solely on the pitching line or batting line, it doesn't factor in game context at all. That is, someone who goes 3 for 5 with 2 HR and 4 RBI has the same Game score, whether he's the decisive difference-maker in a 4-3 squeaker, whether this all comes as part of a pile-on in a 17-2 drubbing, or if this occurs from the losing side -- a vailiant effort in a 13-7 loss. Game Score also makes no distinction between a 2-run homer that gives a team a 2-0 lead in the top of the 1st, widens a 6-run lead in the 7th, or walks his team off with a come-from-behind win in the bottom of the 9th. (Or whether it comes when his team is 9 runs down, etc.)

I think this is where is where PotG selections go awry most frequently. It may not be as obvious if you're simming the game and reviewing the boxscore after-the-fact -- it superficially seems "correct" that the player with the flashy pitching/batting line gets PotG -- but if you're actually watching the game play out inning by inning, occasionally the PotG selections will be confounding and will not seem true-to-life. After all, in the case of a hypothetical 5-4 win, the next day's recap in the real world would open with "Joe Smith hit a 2-run walk-off double in the bottom of the 9th to lead Richmond to a 5-4 win" as opposed to "Ron Clark scattered 7 hits over 7 innings as Richmond came from behind in the bottom of the 9th to win 5-4"; typically, the Player of the Game would be bestowed on the player who had the greatest impact on the game, as opposed to the player who strictly had the best batting line or pitching line. Much of the time, it's the same person -- i.e. the guy with the 3 HR game usually is the one chiefly responsible for his team's win -- but there are many cases where it's not.

As others in this thread have suggested, I'd like to propose using Game WPA as the methodology for determining Player of the Game. Advantages:

• it takes into account game context
• it takes into account league run environment
• it uses a common scale for both hitters and pitchers (Batting Game Score and Pitching Game Score both work on a loose 0ish-to-100ish scale [not truly], but +5 points in a Batting Game Score is not necessarily equivalent to +5 points in a Pitching Game Score; on the other hand, a WPA of +0.1 by a pitcher legitimately has the same value as a batter +0.1 WPA.)
• by definition, hitting and pitching contributions are weighted equally (since WPA is a zero-sum metric)
• Player of the Game for someone on the losing team is still very much possible, but more infrequent

Strictly speaking, I don't think there are any drawbacks for using WPA to determine Player of the Game. Practically speaking, the one downside I can envision is potential puzzlement from people who sim their games out and don't see the context in which player contributions took place -- "How did this guy who went 1-for-4 with 2 RBIs get Player of the Game over this other guy who drove in 4 RBIs? Is this broken?"

(The only other concern about using WPA I would have is whether it's derived from the various win probability percentages that are actually displayed onscreen during the game, as I'm pretty sure the table being used contains a few errors -- i.e. instances where win probability for the losing team incorrectly goes up when the losing team makes outs, etc. -- which would result in some individual WPA values being off.)

Anyway, I hope this was easy to follow, and hope that the OOTP team will consider switching to WPA for PotG. Very much looking forward to all the new additions in OOTP16!

[Bluenoser]

I'd be fine with a game WPA, would be a good starting point that could always be fine tuned.

I will however, disagree with the simmed/played out argument.

IMO there's no difference, I can look at the boxscore and see when the player hit the 2 run homer, and how it impacted the game at that moment. If I want to see the inning played out I can read the game log.

I don't find a difference between them, because in both cases you're reading a text line.


Please do submit your suggestion for POG in the suggestions forum though. When we get closer to the end of beta testing and if Markus has a bit of time for any other features, I'll mention the suggestion to him.

[ToTheBackstop]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

I will however, disagree with the simmed/played out argument.

IMO there's no difference, I can look at the boxscore and see when the player hit the 2 run homer, and how it impacted the game at that moment. If I want to see the inning played out I can read the game log.

Oh, agreed -- you most definitely can figure out when the player cashed in the 2 runs and how that impacted the game by looking at the game log, and by perusing details portion of the boxscore to piece together the action. It's all there.

I'm presuming (perhaps wrongly) that many who sim out games are mostly just looking at the batting lines and pitching lines alone, e.g. "Okay, Clark went 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs, Johnson had an 0-fer, Lewis went 1-4 with 2 runs", etc. and moving on, rather than necessarily trying to piece together the action in the game. I'm sure some do, but figure that many are plowing through their league's schedule and are not scrutinizing the boxscore/game logs to such an extent.

Whereas if you're playing the game out (and watching it), it's pretty much in your face what happened.

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Please do submit your suggestion for POG in the suggestions forum though. When we get closer to the end of beta testing and if Markus has a bit of time for any other features, I'll mention the suggestion to him.

Cool, thanks!

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by ToTheBackstop

Oh, agreed -- you most definitely can figure out when the player cashed in the 2 runs and how that impacted the game by looking at the game log, and by perusing details portion of the boxscore to piece together the action. It's all there.

I'm presuming (perhaps wrongly) that many who sim out games are mostly just looking at the batting lines and pitching lines alone, e.g. "Okay, Clark went 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs, Johnson had an 0-fer, Lewis went 1-4 with 2 runs", etc. and moving on, rather than necessarily trying to piece together the action in the game. I'm sure some do, but figure that many are plowing through their league's schedule and are not scrutinizing the boxscore/game logs to such an extent.

Whereas if you're playing the game out (and watching it), it's pretty much in your face what happened.



Cool, thanks!

I agree, but I would also say those who sim along at a steady pace probably only give POG a cursory glance. It probably isn't too important to a lot of people.

I sim out games mostly now, but it's 1 game at a time and I often sift through a boxscore and log to get a picture in my head of what happened. I'm guilty of my previous comment as well, sometimes I just don't care about POG, and am only concerned with the actual game results.

[ToTheBackstop]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

I agree, but I would also say those who sim along at a steady pace probably only give POG a cursory glance. It probably isn't too important to a lot of people.

Oh yes, I get it -- this is definitely a minor quibble in the grand scheme of things, and there are far bigger fish to fry .. but hopefully this might be an easy, painless thing for the OOTP team to change.

(Where it becomes most blatant to me is when i.e. I've just watched one of my players deliver a dramatic, come-from-behind walkoff hit, and am mentally fist-pumping and picturing him being pulled over by the sideline reporter for an immediate post-game interview, which then gets interrupted by his happy teammates dousing him with Gatorade... and then the OOTP boxscore screen pops up. "Aaand the player of the game is....... that starting pitcher from earlier who turned in an unremarkable start." *sad trombone*)

[Markus Heinsohn]

I disagree with this... currently the PoG directly relates to the score calculated for the top player game performances report. And it'll remain that way

[ToTheBackstop]

I'm sorry that you disagree, but I do appreciate the response; thanks, Markus.

Using Batting/Pitching Game Score to assemble the Top Player Game Performances report makes sense, since these are by definition a collection of flashy batting/pitching lines, devoid of any game context, whereas the player of the game is (or ought to be IMO) named in relation to the context of the game. Keeping Top Player Game Performances based off of Game Score is certainly reasonable.

Food for thought: Under the current system, Kirk Gibson would not be the OOTP Player of the Game for his legendary home run in the 1988 World Series -- it would be Jose Canseco (on the losing side). IRL, it was Gibson who was getting swarmed in the locker room and feted by the press after the game.

And I'm not sure whether Joe Carter would be the OOTP Player of the Game for his classic WS-winning walkoff homer in 1993 -- it might be Paul Molitor instead. (It'd be close, and would definitely be Molitor if Joe's walk-off had 'only' been a 2-run homer rather than 3-run homer, though in practical terms that extra run made no difference in the game.)

[rpriske]

Disappointing... but not devastating.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

I disagree with this... currently the PoG directly relates to the score calculated for the top player game performances report. And it'll remain that way

So a guy who pitches three meaningless shutout innings of relief for the losing team is considered to have a better game performance than a guy who went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs for the winning team? No offense, Markus, but this kinda feels like you're taking the easy way out by using the top game performances report.

In the grand scheme, this is only a step or two above being a speck of sand on a beach. But hopefully at some point in the future you'll have time to take a better look at this.

[Matt Arnold]

I think a mix of the 2 makes sense. I completely disagree with the NHL logic that the player who scores the shoot out winning goal is automatically first star, so I feel similarly that a game winning hit alone isn't enough if someone else had a better game.

I do agree it's not a big deal - personally I never pay attention to it. I don't think the choices now are terrible enough to really care about, but I can definitely see how it can miss the more "epic" moments.

[BusterKing]

I can see Markus point of view, the POTG is a fun option in the game but it would probably take a lot of time to code it differently and he doesn't want to use his time for it when there are other serious options that needs his attention.

It's not perfect and I'm ok with that.

[ToTheBackstop]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

I completely disagree with the NHL logic that the player who scores the shoot out winning goal is automatically first star, so I feel similarly that a game winning hit alone isn't enough if someone else had a better game.

Agreed, and WPA already takes this into account; a game-winning hit alone doesn't automatically mean the player has the highest WPA in the game. (In fact, it may not even necessarily be most of the time.)

I took this list of 2012 MLB walk-offs, and just arbitrarily went through the first ten in chronological order. Half of the time, the highest WPA player was someone else.

1.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th: Austin Jackson single for 3-2 win
Highest WPA: +0.573, Justin Verlander -- 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K
Smell test: Definitely makes sense
April 5, 2012 Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

2.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th, Carlos Pena single for 7-6 win
Highest WPA: +0.471, Ben Zobrist, mostly for his 9th inning triple to tie the game up at 6
Smell test: Sure. Thanks to Zobrist, TB went from down 6-5 to tied, with the winning run on 3rd. It's really Zobrist who put TB in the position to win.
April 6, 2012 New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

3.
Walk-off, bottom of 10th, Alex Presley single for 2-1 win
Highest WPA: +0.245, Alex Presley
April 7, 2012 Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

4.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th, Scott Rolen single for 6-5 win
Highest WPA: +0.553, Jay Bruce -- 2-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR
Smell test: 2-homer game in a close contest takes it
April 8, 2012 Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

5.
Walk-off, bottom of 11th, Alex Aliva come-from-behind homer for 13-12 win
Highest WPA: +0.885, Alex Aliva
Smell test: Of course. A come-from-behind walk-off in extras? No doubt.
April 8, 2012 Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

6.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th, Andrew McCutchen single for 5-4 win
Highest WPA: +0.614, Andrew McCutchen, 3-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, double
Smell test: Another good game by Cutch even putting aside the walk-off hit
April 8, 2012 Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

7.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th, Daniel Murphy single for 4-3 win
Highest WPA: +0.286, Ruben Tejada, advanced the eventual winning run from 1st to 3rd in bottom of 9th with 0 out
Smell test: Kinda goofy, but obviously getting the winning run 90 feet away with none out is beneficial for your team, so...
April 9, 2012 Washington Nationals at New York Mets Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

8.
Walk-off, bottom of 9th, Chris Heisey single for 4-3 win
Highest WPA: +0.411, Joey Votto, 4-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 double
Smell test: Great game by Votto!
April 11, 2012 St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

9.
Walk-off, bottom of 12th, Jonny Gomes HBP for 5-4 win
Highest WPA: +0.433, Jonny Gomes (also hit a 2-run HR earlier)
April 11, 2012 Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics Play by Play and Box Score | Baseball-Reference.com

10.
Walk-off, bottom of 11th, Gaby Sanchez double for 5-4 win
Highest WPA: +0.309, Gabby Sanchez, 3-5, RBI
April 13, 2012 Houston Astros at Miami Marlins Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com

The player with the highest WPA is the guy who cumulatively did the most to help his team's chances of winning. This can be the guy who delivered the walk-off hit, but it can also be the guy who contributed in earlier plate appearances. (Or it can be poor Ike Davis, who slammed 3 HR in a 6-3 loss for a WPA of +0.341, the highest among all players in the game. The Mets lost, but hey, you can't pin that on Ike.)

(Aside: Very cool to see so many Toronto-based OOTPers!)

Originally Posted by BusterKing

the POTG is a fun option in the game but it would probably take a lot of time to code it differently

OOTP already tracks player WPA.

By contrast, Batting/Pitching Game Score is a derived statistic, where it actually needs to be calculated for every player in the game based on their hits, runs, RBIs, HRs, IP, strikeouts, etc. Strictly speaking, there's actually more computation involved with Game Score.

[TomVeal]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

I disagree with this... currently the PoG directly relates to the score calculated for the top player game performances report. And it'll remain that way

Perhaps, then, the accolade should be relabeled "Outstanding Performance" and awarded to both a pitcher and a batter. That would make your intention clearer and eliminate anomalies stemming from a league's relative offense and defense.

[BusterKing]

Player of the game seems so important to the fans even if it's a stat that doesn't mean anything.

Look at this NHL thread and the chat that it generated last night:

Post-Game Talk: DD da GOAT: Habs win 2-1 OT - HFBoards