Pitcher/Batter WAR?

[Gai1997]

I know Batter WAR is from Fangraphs, but is Pitcher WAR also from Fangraphs? I've heard a lot of people say to use Fangraphs for Batters, Baseball Reference for pitchers since Fangraphs doesn't have the best pitcher WAR.

A big reason for not liking Fangraphs pitcher WAR would be because their formula uses FIP, which might not be the best thing to use when it comes to a stat like WAR.

[ToTheBackstop]

As per this post from Bluenoser quoting Markus, OOTP16 (and previous versions) uses Fangraphs WAR for pitchers.

[Gai1997]

Originally Posted by ToTheBackstop

As per this post from Bluenoser quoting Markus, OOTP16 (and previous versions) uses Fangraphs WAR for pitchers.

Ahh, and I was right below in that thread too. Facepalm. I only remember seeing about batters, thanks.

[Matt Arnold]

We've used fWAR for pitchers for a few versions now, batters is new this year.

And yes, the pitcher WAR is controversial. If in the next couple years a true gold standard comes out, I'm sure we'll switch to that, but for now the Fanrgaphs version is good for us. Plus I like it

[Gai1997]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

We've used fWAR for pitchers for a few versions now, batters is new this year.

And yes, the pitcher WAR is controversial. If in the next couple years a true gold standard comes out, I'm sure we'll switch to that, but for now the Fanrgaphs version is good for us. Plus I like it

Yeah, people just have some concerns over using FIP when calculating WAR when WAR is used to calculate what happened on the field while FIP isn't what actually happened, but what really/could have happened. (I can't explain it, whatever) Just seems odd to me, I don't see how FIP fits with a stat like WAR.

[Syd Thrift]

I think it does come from the same place though. No, a pitcher won't literally post a 4.00 FIP if he actually posted a 5.00 ERA, but a. FIP is much more predictable than ERA, and b. it does, in fact, encapsulate a lot of things we've learned about defense and pitching, namely that the vast majority of pitchers do not have very much control at all over how many hits they give (except of course in the context of getting strikeouts and avoiding homeruns).

Pitchers get hit-lucky or play in front of a good defense rather often, and if you ask me the people who should be credited for the latter are the actual defenders themselves, not the pitcher. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that that's kind of the entire point of WAR.

[ToTheBackstop]

I know where you're coming from, but strictly speaking FIP really is what actually happened -- the pitcher really did allow that many homers, walk and hit that many batters, and strike out that many opponents; FIP is completely performance-based. It's more a matter of how FIP is perceived, which for some is something loosely akin to "his ERA ought to have been around this".

[Piccamo]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I think it does come from the same place though. No, a pitcher won't literally post a 4.00 FIP if he actually posted a 5.00 ERA, but a. FIP is much more predictable than ERA, and b. it does, in fact, encapsulate a lot of things we've learned about defense and pitching, namely that the vast majority of pitchers do not have very much control at all over how many hits they give (except of course in the context of getting strikeouts and avoiding homeruns).

Pitchers get hit-lucky or play in front of a good defense rather often, and if you ask me the people who should be credited for the latter are the actual defenders themselves, not the pitcher. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that that's kind of the entire point of WAR.

To add to this, there is some ability by pitchers to limit hits, but it is in the context of inducing weak contact or ground balls. There is little a pitcher can do to force a batter to hit the ball to a specific part of the field where a fielder might be standing. The main reason that batted balls (except for home runs) are not counted in WAR is because then you would double dip on for player value. You would credit position players for saving runs on defense and also pitchers for the result of the batted balls.

[jaa36]

Tangotiger has written about (and I agree) that the two main iterations of pitcher WAR (Fangraphs vs Baseball Reference flavors) take differing positions on how much the pitcher is responsible for. Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) accounts for only things that pitchers are 100% responsible for- walks, strikeouts, and home runs, as mentioned earlier. (Although as framing research has shown in the past few years, catchers are likely responsible for a substantial portion of even those variables.) Baseball reference WAR (rWAR) considers pitchers responsible for everything, and is based on total runs scored against the pitcher. The reality is that pitcher value is likely in between those two poles, but it is nearly impossible to determine whether it should be closer to one pole or the other, and likely that it varies from pitcher to pitcher.

OOTP15 and the last few versions had pitcher VORP- which was actually a pretty useful proxy for rWAR- but this stat is gone from OOTP16. It would be really nice for OOTP16 or a future version to calculate RA9 (total runs allowed per nine innings) and rWAR (which is largely based on RA9) so we can than interpolate a pitcher's true value between rWAR and fWAR.