Questionable AI decisions

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

No data? Haven't I posted screen shots of everything?

And most of the stuff you posted I can find at least ten examples of happening with a simple baseball-reference search. And again, you posting one or two plays and saying "this happens way too much" is not data.

Go through a whole season and let me know how many runners get popped going first to third with two outs and I guarantee you are within a normal deviation of actual MLB.

I've also said there are going to be times when you are going to be right. The game is obviously not perfect...there are still things that have yet to happen in MLB such as the first 4-5-4 triple play the other day.

If you are striving for perfect recreations I advise avoiding sports games altogether. However if you can put aside a few things that might not please you...it's the best on the market.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

You took my post which was in response to one made by Matt Arnold way out of context. You are entitled to your opinions but this thread is now verging into dishonesty. Show the context around my post and stop with the bull****.

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

We always look to improve things. We had in our mind to make an extra look through player substitution logic, but essentially ran out of time. I think for next year we'll take another look to improve things.

But keep in mind, it's incredibly hard to get "right". If we shift guys around for a more optimal positioning, we'll get people complaining about the AI using too many bench players, or that they ended up shifting 3 guys for a marginal upgrade. There's definitely room for improvement, but so much depends on who's on field and who's available, we'll try our best.

Edit:

I was one of the leading advocates for changes in AI behavior that limits player movement. Again there seems to be a disconnect between players like me who prefer non-optimal but realistic player usage and strategy vs an unrealistic optimal AI.

There is a middle ground here but I suspect some posters are not interested in it.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

And most of the stuff you posted I can find at least ten examples of happening with a simple baseball-reference search. And again, you posting one or two plays and saying "this happens way too much" is not data.

Go through a whole season and let me know how many runners get popped going first to third with two outs and I guarantee you are within a normal deviation of actual MLB.

I've also said there are going to be times when you are going to be right. The game is obviously not perfect...there are still things that have yet to happen in MLB such as the first 4-5-4 triple play the other day.

If you are striving for perfect recreations I advise avoiding sports games altogether. However if you can put aside a few things that might not please you...it's the best on the market.

I'm not posting these examples to try and prove this game is bad. I probably "waste" 40 hours per week on this game. I love it. It is what I wish I had when I was a kid playing Strat-O-Matic and trying to play out a whole season by myself. That doesn't mean it can't be improved, especially the AI.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I'm not posting these examples to try and prove this game is bad. I probably "waste" 40 hours per week on this game. I love it. It is what I wish I had when I was a kid playing Strat-O-Matic and trying to play out a whole season by myself. That doesn't mean it can't be improved, especially the AI.

Sure, it can be improved.

But there are a lot of areas where you think it is failing where it is probably giving you what it should. It just isn't doing it in a manner you expect, perhaps.

That is what people are saying. Also, considering that we play a game revolving around a sport where stats and data are the biggest draw, not having stats and data is going to set you up to get criticized in a debate.

If you've got something legitimate, people will support it.

[jaysdailydose]

I'm sticking to my word from earlier, though. I'm going to actually do an MLB game for my dynasty report and I'll make sure to look out for questionable stuff.

Trust me, most of the people you are disagreeing with have been on your side of the fence at one point or another. I know I used to have a ton of problems with how teams market size was determined, so I put together a whole project that a ton of people used to set their market sizes since OOTP 13.

[MKG1734]

...not having stats and data is going to set you up to get criticized in a debate ... If you've got something legitimate, people will support it.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...7-post280.html

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by RchW

You took my post which was in response to one made by Matt Arnold way out of context. You are entitled to your opinions but this thread is now verging into dishonesty. Show the context around my post and stop with the bull****.

Oh stop with the fake outrage. That was a statement of fact, not of opinion within some context of a different argument. I even went on to claim that Miggy would probably get moved to first if the first baseman was replaced by a guy who could play third. You even argued against that possibility by showing stats. So don't tell me that isn't all relevant to the example I posted of the third baseman being moved to second so an infielder with almost no experience could be played at third instead of playing him at second where he was basically equivalent to the third baseman that got moved there.

[jaysdailydose]

Posting it again isn't going to make any of us change our tune, buddy.

There are absolutely valid reasons there why a manager might have made that decision. If you disagreed with it so vehemently, you should have made use of the number of tools available to you as the player.

Player B is a very young, plus-plus power hitter with the potential to develop into an elite power hitter..

Besides that, you aren't playing stats only. You've very clearly said that you're using 5/62/22/11. That isn't stats-only. Ratings are being considered with a heavy emphasis on stats.

It probably sees the crazy power relative to the whole league, and it wants to keep that power in the lineup. Not farfetched, especially when, as stated several times, you are dealing with a difference of *THREE* points of overall between three young, and at this point all below-average players.

Christ, you used to be a scout and you can't think of one possible reason why an MLB manager would have kept that kind of power tool in the lineup at a historically power-scarce position like shortstop? Come on, man... after you posted that I kind of wonder if you are seriously trying to be disingenuous.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Oh stop with the fake outrage. That was a statement of fact, not of opinion within some context of a different argument. I even went on to claim that Miggy would probably get moved to first if the first baseman was replaced by a guy who could play third. You even argued against that possibility by showing stats. So don't tell me that isn't all relevant to the example I posted of the third baseman being moved to second so an infielder with almost no experience could be played at third instead of playing him at second where he was basically equivalent to the third baseman that got moved there.

Except the data DOESN'T SHOW THAT WITH MIGGY AND YOU WERE SHOWN THAT AND IGNORED IT.

The Tigers with Prince Fielder would CONSISTENTLY leave Fielder in the game at first base even though he was a bigger defensive liability than Cabrera at the spot, while pulling Cabrera for Don Kelly's defense. Don Kelly, as you probably know, is also capable of playing both first and third base.

[MKG1734]

Besides that, you aren't playing stats only. You've very clearly said that you're using 5/62/22/11. That isn't stats-only. Ratings are being considered with a heavy emphasis on stats.

Sorry, maybe I'm not making myself clear. The game is being played under DIFFERENT settings that do NOT affect the lineups. The game is backed up, and I re-start the game from the same point using different AI Evaluation settings.

This has included everything you can think of:

100 / 0 / 0 / 0
0 / 100 / 0 / 0
25 / 25 / 25 / 25
and so on and so forth.

With each setting - the only thing that changes is the headline overall / potential rating. The lineups do not change.

It probably sees the crazy power relative to the whole league, and it wants to keep that power in the lineup.

Is this not ignored when playing 100% stats? ... (please see my comment with regard to playing at 100% current year stat)

Come on, man... after you posted that I kind of wonder if you are seriously trying to be disingenuous.

I'm being serious in the fact that, I'm not understanding what the point of the AI Evaluation settings accomplishes. It doesn't seem to do anything? The lineups do not change no matter what settings I use (and then recalc) them to.

My question is:

If I'm playing on 100% stats ... 0 ratings ... what is going on here?

Why is the lineup vs RHP set such as it is? It appears to be 100% ignoring the statistics of said players...

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Oh stop with the fake outrage. That was a statement of fact, not of opinion within some context of a different argument. I even went on to claim that Miggy would probably get moved to first if the first baseman was replaced by a guy who could play third. You even argued against that possibility by showing stats. So don't tell me that isn't all relevant to the example I posted of the third baseman being moved to second so an infielder with almost no experience could be played at third instead of playing him at second where he was basically equivalent to the third baseman that got moved there.

Once again you ignore what people are saying and make up a straw man to argue against.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

Except the data DOESN'T SHOW THAT WITH MIGGY AND YOU WERE SHOWN THAT AND IGNORED IT.

The Tigers with Prince Fielder would CONSISTENTLY leave Fielder in the game at first base even though he was a bigger defensive liability than Cabrera at the spot, while pulling Cabrera for Don Kelly's defense. Don Kelly, as you probably know, is also capable of playing both first and third base.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume for now that you are missing the context. So I'll explain it again. It has been argued that we shouldn't expect the OOTP AI to rearrange the defensive alignment in the infield to the most optimal possible because in real life most players don't move around much. So here the argument isn't about it being a "game" but instead about realism. But let's forget that for now. Let's look at the example I posted previously in this thread of the second baseman getting pinch hit for and the OOTP AI bringing in an infielder and playing him at third base, where he is rated a "1" and moving the third baseman to second where the two of are basically equivalent defensively. So if they aren't supposed to be moved to improve the defensive alignment, why are they being moved to make the defensive alignment worse?

Originally Posted by RchW

Once again you ignore what people are saying and make up a straw man to argue against.

I believe I accurately stated your argument in the paragraph above. Feel free to correct my errors.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume for now that you are missing the context. So I'll explain it again. It has been argued that we shouldn't expect the OOTP AI to rearrange the defensive alignment in the infield to the most optimal possible because in real life most players don't move around much. So here the argument isn't about it being a "game" but instead about realism. But let's forget that for now. Let's look at the example I posted previously in this thread of the second baseman getting pinch hit for and the OOTP AI bringing in an infielder and playing him at third base, where he is rated a "1" and moving the third baseman to second where the two of are basically equivalent defensively. So if they aren't supposed to be moved to improve the defensive alignment, why are they being moved to make the defensive alignment worse?



I believe I accurately stated your argument in the paragraph above. Feel free to correct my errors.

I would want more info. The fact that he is rated at the position means he can play it and especially at third, if he has a better arm, he might get that call into exactly the situation you describe. Maybe he has a horrid turn dp we aren't seeing that while his position rating indicates a ton of experience doesn't make him have great tools.

Do I see your argument? Absolutely. As I've said a bunch in this post, though, there are a TON of factors in play. Do I like the situation you describe? Probably not...but you've said they are "almost the same player at second" which means they aren't and I'd like to see both players in question before calling it wrong.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I believe I accurately stated your argument in the paragraph above. Feel free to correct my errors.

No you did not. Your error is that I used the factual data with respect to Cabrera to support Matt's point that it is exceedingly difficult to balance the need for defensive replacements vs moving too many players around. Nothing more nothing less. You are using that post to argue a point never made. Hence my objection which you falsely label fake outrage.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

I would want more info. The fact that he is rated at the position means he can play it and especially at third, if he has a better arm, he might get that call into exactly the situation you describe. Maybe he has a horrid turn dp we aren't seeing that while his position rating indicates a ton of experience doesn't make him have great tools.

Do I see your argument? Absolutely. As I've said a bunch in this post, though, there are a TON of factors in play. Do I like the situation you describe? Probably not...but you've said they are "almost the same player at second" which means they aren't and I'd like to see both players in question before calling it wrong.

The data is already there. You don't have to wonder about that stuff. Go look at my posts.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

The data is already there. You don't have to wonder about that stuff. Go look at my posts.

All you have said is the guys position rating is 1 at 3B and they are "almost the same" at second. That isn't all the info needed.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by RchW

No you did not. Your error is that I used the factual data with respect to Cabrera to support Matt's point that it is exceedingly difficult to balance the need for defensive replacements vs moving too many players around. Nothing more nothing less. You are using that post to argue a point never made. Hence my objection which you falsely label fake outrage.

It may be difficult to balance but I would argue that moving them when it makes the defense worse and not moving them when it makes the defense better would be quite unbalanced. Would you not agree?

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

All you have said is the guys position rating is 1 at 3B and they are "almost the same" at second. That isn't all the info needed.

No. Go look at my posts. I already posted the screen shots earlier in this thread as I have referenced before.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by RchW

^^This^^

Also the fact that to be realistic some questionable things must happen in-game. A perfectly tuned AI (not possible I know) would become boring over time. Human managers in real life rarely use optimal lineups or optimal substitution patterns because seniority contract value and player comfort at certain positions still dictate who plays and where on many teams.

It is an established fact that real life teams do not swap IF positions. Starting SS do not play 2B and 3B do not play 2B or vice versa in any significant way. Even backup IF tend to play one position predominantly. Last season only 5 of 30 backup SS and 2B played significant time at both positions. So in real life a starting SS will not be moved to another position and replaced with a better fielding backup even if that is theoretically optimal. It shouldn't happen in OOTP either.


See this linked post.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3818738

This is a beta link, but let me quote from a few posts within it that I think point to the crux of a philosophical split that is, in essence, causal in its nature and likely to always exist.

RchW, you and I among others, have championed specific changes in the structure of AI positional thinking for a number of years. The highlights in the posts below show clearly, IMHO, where it exists, and demonstrate as clearly that the debate will continue until the developer decides differently as his final word, of course entitled, is the only thing that really matters in the course of the design. FWIW

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Well, this is a very complex topic. There are two elements here in OOTP: 1) How does the AI set up the depth charts and 2) How does it handle in-game substitutions.

For example, in real life when a player is the 2B vs RHP, he is most likely the 2B against LHP as well, even if the platoon starter at 3B has a better rating at 2B and vice versa. In OOTP these two would switch positions if possible. And they should do in real life too, but managers don't do this most of the time.

Originally Posted by endgame

But our objective is to model RL closely, right, not to model a suggestion of what we/you think they should be doing? IMHO, the chief culprit is in this post (snipped in the next post): http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3816842 a cause I've advocated for some time now and echo Ian's sentiments about what can drastically reduce this aberration.

Originally Posted by injury log

- Never (or almost never) move a guy from one position vs RHP to another vs LHP.

Originally Posted by injury log

To encourage the human manager to behave the same way as the AI, starting players should become unhappy when forced to move around the diamond a lot. Utility players should obviously be happy with their role, but they're not in the starting lineup.

Beyond the merits of this thread and the obvious benefit of solid debate and discussion, we should be careful of at least two elements that easily occur in these kinds of environments, FWIW and IMHO.

I've presented my case in an earlier post of what constitutes needed documentation and rationale for identifying bugs or the potential bugs. That isn't opinion, it's inarguable. Been there, done that. It's essential and observations of the anomaly or repeated erratic choices eventually will be required to provide adequate data in support of the claim.

In addition, it's typical of these threads to characteristically risk a subtle disintegration into ego-driven exchanges, and while we all suffer a bit of risk because we possess an ego, it simply has to take second place to a reasonable discussion of observable behavior and the articulation of the same. It's a broad brush swipe of a philosophical brush, but frankly, as I pointed out in my exchange with Markus, things don't change unless we do. I tend to favor a Zen approach and offer it up often: seek first to understand and only then to be understood. It's a simple governor for growth.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

No. Go look at my posts. I already posted the screen shots earlier in this thread as I have referenced before.

This thread is now 16 pages long, but I went back and looked.

Exactly like I figured, your Randolph that they put at 3B has an 18 arm, compared to an 11 for Sanchez. Arm is generally looked at as the most important tool for a third baseman.

Can easily see why they moved him to third, and Sanchez to second now.

See what I mean? Most of these things you are describing can be explained with even a cursory look at the ratings. An 11 arm on the 10-20 scale is actually extremely low for anyone with 3B experience and true 3B ability.

What the numbers show me is a man who is comfortable playing third but doesn't really have the tools to play there, and a backup coming in who doesn't have a ton of experience but has all the tools to play the position and then some.