BABIP Correcting season over season?

bigyunit · 07-09-2015, 03:00 PM

After winning the AL West in my 2017 season with the Mariners, my hitting coach's contract expired and he refused to re-sign me. I hired a new hitting coach for 2018 and acquired two new players - a 26 year old rightfielder who was the NL MVP in 2016, and a 28 year old catcher with a .284 career average. Both significant offensive upgrades. Otherwise my offense was the same.

Through 70 games in 2018, my offense has absolutely imploded. After about 50 games I fired my new hitting coach and tried someone else, but it didn't seem to make much difference.

I should add that only one player, my 3B, really had a career year in 2017. Everyone else was pretty in line with their career numbers. The difference seems to like in BABIP. Several of my guys seemed to get pretty lucky last season, and now every single one of them seems to be extremely unlucky.

Is this an automatic correction? Should I expect this trend to continue the rest of this season, leading nearly my entire team to have career worst seasons, when many should be in their primes?

Here's the drop for each of my 9 starters, with ages, slash lines and BABIP (The average BABIP for these guys in 2017 was .317 - through 70 games in 2018 its down more than 50 pts to .261):

2B (25 yo) -

2017: .259/.346/.353 (BABIP: .290)
2018: .285/.367.430 (BABIP: .310)

SS (28 yo) -

2017: .315/.374/.505 (BABIP: .344)
2018: .201/.267/.304 (BABIP: .242)

3B (28 yo) -

2017: .307/.365/.527 (BABIP: .334)
2018: .243/.312/.407 (BABIP: .261)
(Also on pace for 12 doubles, after hitting 44 in 2017)

1B (28 yo) -

2017: .306/.375/.474 (BABIP: .352)
2018: .201/.260/.382 (BABIP: .214)

RF (26 yo) -

2017: .294/.393/.583 (BABIP: .326)
2018: .225/.286/.418 (BABIP: .260)
(2017 in Wrigley, 2018 in Safeco)

LF (34 yo) -

2017: .268/.361/.434 (BABIP: .332)
2018: .250/.325/.444 (BABIP: .268)

DH (28 yo) -

2017: .255/.313/.425 (BABIP: 304)
2018: .252/.308/.424 (BABIP: .295)

C (28 yo) -

2017: .279/.324/.404 (BABIP: .295)
2018: .229/.267/.364 (BABIP: .228)
(2017 in Kaufman, 2018 in Safeco)

CF (27 yo) -

2017: .247/.364/.316 (BABIP: .284)
2018: .251/.317/.344 (BABIP: .278)

saturn2187 · 07-09-2015, 03:17 PM

ouch

Raidergoo · 07-09-2015, 05:26 PM

Sometimes aging and reversion to the mean feels like an anvil being dropped onto one's head. Teams that win pennants often have an unusual degree of luck involved. Sometimes the breaks all go their way. Sometimes they are preternaturally healthy. Sometimes that 25 HR dude hits 44. Sometimes Zoilo Versalles rocks out and wins the MVP.

You've done the right thing offering a propitiatory sacrifice to the Gods after firing the hitting coach.

Wingedlion14 · 07-09-2015, 07:26 PM

Absolutely agree with everything that's been said so far.

Also take into account that league-average for BABIP is about .300, and that BABIP tends to stay rather consistent throughout someone's prime. So eventually everything should return to the mean - if not this season, perhaps next.

bigyunit · 07-10-2015, 10:42 AM

Just brutal that all of these guys are having regression at the same time. Will have to see how the final 90 games play out.

RchW · 07-10-2015, 10:49 AM

I see four maybe five on that list where the word regression doesn't fit. Normal variation in BABIP does not mean regression.

Number4 · 07-11-2015, 06:45 AM

Regression is part of normal variation. If someone was lucky, had better stats than his skill was suggesting and then his lucky streak ended, he regressed (returned) to his normal stats.

07-09-2015, 03:00 PM	#1
bigyunit Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 18	BABIP Correcting season over season? After winning the AL West in my 2017 season with the Mariners, my hitting coach's contract expired and he refused to re-sign me. I hired a new hitting coach for 2018 and acquired two new players - a 26 year old rightfielder who was the NL MVP in 2016, and a 28 year old catcher with a .284 career average. Both significant offensive upgrades. Otherwise my offense was the same. Through 70 games in 2018, my offense has absolutely imploded. After about 50 games I fired my new hitting coach and tried someone else, but it didn't seem to make much difference. I should add that only one player, my 3B, really had a career year in 2017. Everyone else was pretty in line with their career numbers. The difference seems to like in BABIP. Several of my guys seemed to get pretty lucky last season, and now every single one of them seems to be extremely unlucky. Is this an automatic correction? Should I expect this trend to continue the rest of this season, leading nearly my entire team to have career worst seasons, when many should be in their primes? Here's the drop for each of my 9 starters, with ages, slash lines and BABIP (The average BABIP for these guys in 2017 was .317 - through 70 games in 2018 its down more than 50 pts to .261): 2B (25 yo) - 2017: .259/.346/.353 (BABIP: .290) 2018: .285/.367.430 (BABIP: .310) SS (28 yo) - 2017: .315/.374/.505 (BABIP: .344) 2018: .201/.267/.304 (BABIP: .242) 3B (28 yo) - 2017: .307/.365/.527 (BABIP: .334) 2018: .243/.312/.407 (BABIP: .261) (Also on pace for 12 doubles, after hitting 44 in 2017) 1B (28 yo) - 2017: .306/.375/.474 (BABIP: .352) 2018: .201/.260/.382 (BABIP: .214) RF (26 yo) - 2017: .294/.393/.583 (BABIP: .326) 2018: .225/.286/.418 (BABIP: .260) (2017 in Wrigley, 2018 in Safeco) LF (34 yo) - 2017: .268/.361/.434 (BABIP: .332) 2018: .250/.325/.444 (BABIP: .268) DH (28 yo) - 2017: .255/.313/.425 (BABIP: 304) 2018: .252/.308/.424 (BABIP: .295) C (28 yo) - 2017: .279/.324/.404 (BABIP: .295) 2018: .229/.267/.364 (BABIP: .228) (2017 in Kaufman, 2018 in Safeco) CF (27 yo) - 2017: .247/.364/.316 (BABIP: .284) 2018: .251/.317/.344 (BABIP: .278)

07-09-2015, 05:26 PM	#3
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,005	Sometimes aging and reversion to the mean feels like an anvil being dropped onto one's head. Teams that win pennants often have an unusual degree of luck involved. Sometimes the breaks all go their way. Sometimes they are preternaturally healthy. Sometimes that 25 HR dude hits 44. Sometimes Zoilo Versalles rocks out and wins the MVP. You've done the right thing offering a propitiatory sacrifice to the Gods after firing the hitting coach. Last edited by Raidergoo; 07-09-2015 at 05:28 PM.

07-10-2015, 10:49 AM	#6
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	I see four maybe five on that list where the word regression doesn't fit. Normal variation in BABIP does not mean regression. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

07-09-2015, 03:17 PM	#2
saturn2187 All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 521	ouch

07-09-2015, 07:26 PM	#4
Wingedlion14 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 170	Absolutely agree with everything that's been said so far. Also take into account that league-average for BABIP is about .300, and that BABIP tends to stay rather consistent throughout someone's prime. So eventually everything should return to the mean - if not this season, perhaps next.

07-10-2015, 10:42 AM	#5
bigyunit Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 18	Just brutal that all of these guys are having regression at the same time. Will have to see how the final 90 games play out.

07-11-2015, 06:45 AM	#7
Number4 Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 460	Regression is part of normal variation. If someone was lucky, had better stats than his skill was suggesting and then his lucky streak ended, he regressed (returned) to his normal stats.