League Totals modifier for Hits

[Dutch Alexander]

I'm trying to set up a fictional league and adjust the modifiers to get the statistical output I'm looking for. Adjusting the modifiers works fine and I am getting the correct output. Except for batting average. During testing I noticed that in some of my leagues the batting average is a bit high, so I tried to adjust this by lowering the "Hits" modifier. The batting average however remained the same. In the league totals I have 18750 AB and 4950 hits (.264 average). During testing the BA stays around .270 no matter how low the modifier is set. Even when the modifier is set to 0,001. If I set the modifier to a high number then the number of hits does go up. (modifier of 10,000 results in a league BA of .811).


I also noticed that when I increase the number of hits in the league totals to 5250 (.280 average) the batting average drops to .251. When I decrease the number of hits then the BA goes up. Logically you would ec[ect the opposite to happen. I am failing to understand this. Perhaps someone more enlightened than myself can answer the following two questions:

1. Why doesn't lowering the hits modifier result in fewer hits after certain point?
2. Why does increasing/decreasing the number of hits in the league totals have a reverse effect?

[sprague]

Dutch i can only share my experiences.

Batting average is one area that can fluctuate incredibly even after auto calc to start the season. One year the league will play to .251, the next to .264 for no logical reason. Historical leagues the variation is great.

In general though if I want a .260 average year, most years it will be close. Some reasons it changes- the auto calc is run on a league at that moment of the pre season, and without injuries i think. So if some free agents are not yet signed, or during the year key pitchers or hitters get injured, that will effect the totals as the game goes through.

BUT altering the modifier does for me always work. If I want a .260 average and the year is playing on May 1 at .256, i raise the modifier from say .965 to .990 and in 2 months the league average will have risen say to .259 where i can drop it back a tad to even out the year. So am not sure why it is not having such an effect for you, it always does for me. Try out another test league, and change it every couple of months- say .050 up or down and see if that works in the test league. It shoulld.

I never change the actual league totals, because that will have quite drastic effects because the modifier is working with that league total. So if you change the total and not the modifiier with it, it is going to go wild. Say a .955 on 43000 hits is going to be a much lower number to .955 with 46000 hits. I keep the league total I want and then only massage the modifier. I generally only do this for hits. If I notice the other numbers for say 2B or HR or K are getting a bit too high or low as history progresses then I will bump those league totals at that time but not by much . If not enough home runs I may go fromo 5000 a season to 5070. Its enough to make an overall difference...

Hope that helps some for you

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

1. Why doesn't lowering the hits modifier result in fewer hits after certain point?
2. Why does increasing/decreasing the number of hits in the league totals have a reverse effect?

#2 first - No idea.. doesn't matter though, as you will see.

don't change the Totals values... if you have, no worries. just leave them the same for easier manipulation of results with the modifiers. i'd leave BABIP in one spot too.

Hits LTM will affect BABIP (league results, not the setting) the most. (among other things... this LTM will affect the results of many statistical categories) I am virtually certain this is true as the result of ~1000+ years of fiddling with these things.

if you want more singles/2b/3b/hr, lower Strikeout LTM. even decreasing walks *might help a bit. this is more complicated than this, but all other things reamaining the same lowering strikeouts will rais batting averages.

changing 2b/3b/hr seem to affect each other... e.g. based on Hits and other LTM, there are X number of extra base hits, and changing these modifiers changes the ratios of the extra base hits. I am less confident about this phenomenom than i am about hits ltm and babip.