Errors, Wild Pitches, Hit Batters, Walks Realism

ajone102 · 11-12-2015, 05:31 PM

Hey guys -

I'm new to the game, I've played probably like 50 games and put in around 30 hours of playtime. I have to admit so far that the most annoying thing is the excessive amount of gaffs by my players.

I don't mind losing but it is frustrating when your own players cause the loss in such an unrealistic matter. For instance here is my last game I played as the Cardinals vs. the Indians:

Matt Carpenter isn't the best third basemen. -0.7 UZR per 150 games as a 3B in 2014 according to Fangraphs. Little bit below average... I can't see him committing 2 errors in one game (he committed 16 total errors in 156 games in 2014, basically 1 error per 10 games) but hey it happens...whatever. It's chance... I understand... It varies.

But Wainwright hitting a batter and throwing a wild pitch? I looked up his 2014 stats and Waino hit 3 batters and had 0 wild pitches for the entire 2014 regular and postseason. 227 innings... so he averages .013 hit batters and wild pitches per inning. In other words, he should hit a batter or throw a wild pitch once every 77 innings. I could summarize his entire career stats but I'm lazy... you'll just have to believe me that his other years are similar.

I had this one game where I consecutively committed a string of 6 walked batters, 1 wild pitch, and 1 balk using 4 relievers! Has that ever been done in the history of major league baseball? It wasn't like I was playing as a single A team either... they were all relievers on the 25 man roster for the St. Louis Cardinals. I wish I had a screenshot of the box score but I quit the game in frustration haha.

Is there any way I can edit the settings to tone it down a bit? Don't get me wrong... I don't want a Single A reliever to all of the sudden have the control of Bartolo Colon. I still want these mistakes to happen because they happen in real life baseball but I would just like it to be realistic.

Hotwheelz · 11-12-2015, 06:07 PM

Wainwright has hit 2 batters in a game 3 times in his career.

August 5, 2007
April 24, 2010
May 14, 2012

If it happened all the time it would be out of the ordinary but it does happen.

Westheim · 11-12-2015, 06:16 PM

Wait until you have the bases loaded and your guy wild-pitches all the runners in - in the course of one at-bat.

magritte · 11-12-2015, 06:26 PM

I wonder if there's a function that causes these events to cluster? I mean maybe it's just that errors happen when there are people on base (which is surely true statistically), but I feel like if an error is made in an inning, the chance that more errors will occur in that inning is much increased.

I wonder if it's proportionate so that everybody is 2x as likely to throw a wild pitch if they've already thrown one that inning, but if the pitcher throws an unusually large number of wild pitches to start with, the doubling causes him to get into absurd territory. Mind you, such things have been known to happen in real life (anyone remember Calvin Schiraldi in Game 6 of the World Series in 1986?).

I think I've been noticing it more because I'm playing with 1870's players who make gobs of errors anyway, so they'll sometimes string together errors and passed balls to six or seven consecutive batters. That said, the total number of errors made is consistent with the data, as is the total number of runs. It makes me wonder whether if the statistical probability of hit errors, wild pitches, etc. were imposed uniformly in every inning, perhaps there wouldn't be enough big innings to generate the amount of run scoring observed.

ajone102 · 11-12-2015, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by magritte

I wonder if there's a function that causes these events to cluster? I mean maybe it's just that errors happen when there are people on base (which is surely true statistically), but I feel like if an error is made in an inning, the chance that more errors will occur in that inning is much increased.

I wonder if it's proportionate so that everybody is 2x as likely to throw a wild pitch if they've already thrown one that inning, but if the pitcher throws an unusually large number of wild pitches to start with, the doubling causes him to get into absurd territory. Mind you, such things have been known to happen in real life (anyone remember Calvin Schiraldi in Game 6 of the World Series in 1986?).

I think I've been noticing it more because I'm playing with 1870's players who make gobs of errors anyway, so they'll sometimes string together errors and passed balls to six or seven consecutive batters. That said, the total number of errors made is consistent with the data, as is the total number of runs. It makes me wonder whether if the statistical probability of hit errors, wild pitches, etc. were imposed uniformly in every inning, perhaps there wouldn't be enough big innings to generate the amount of run scoring observed.

That's a good point. Logically, it seems like walks and wild pitches are likely to cluster because the pitcher is losing control. They also might happen more often when players are on base because the pitcher is throwing out of the stretch and paying more attention to the runners. That would be an interesting report.

Maybe I should just start simming the games and prevent myself from having a heart attack...

NoOne · 11-12-2015, 11:18 PM

it's completely random. some factors increase or decrease the likelihood, like a tiring pitcher, of course.

at the end of the season you can look at wild pitches, hits batsmen, and fielding percentage and make changes to the league total modifiers (don't change the league totals - just the mods - referenced as LTMs below). get an idea of what you want 'normal' to be from baseball-reference.com or wherever else.

don't be so focused on a small sample size (your team's results). just because something is supposed to happen 10% of the time doesn't mean it can't happen multiple times in a row. once you have a few seasons of data from the entire league, you will know if the percents are way off.

take note of your current LTMs. try running autocalc once and compare the results. e.g. if it has reduced 'wild pitches' by quite a bit, your suspicions were probably right. autocalc can only be used at certain times of the year, i believe.

edit: there is a config file you can edit with notepad or any other txt editor. i'd stick to the modifiers in game though. i think it's in the game's root directory... it should stand out.

11-12-2015, 05:31 PM	#1
ajone102 Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 4	Errors, Wild Pitches, Hit Batters, Walks Realism Hey guys - I'm new to the game, I've played probably like 50 games and put in around 30 hours of playtime. I have to admit so far that the most annoying thing is the excessive amount of gaffs by my players. I don't mind losing but it is frustrating when your own players cause the loss in such an unrealistic matter. For instance here is my last game I played as the Cardinals vs. the Indians: Matt Carpenter isn't the best third basemen. -0.7 UZR per 150 games as a 3B in 2014 according to Fangraphs. Little bit below average... I can't see him committing 2 errors in one game (he committed 16 total errors in 156 games in 2014, basically 1 error per 10 games) but hey it happens...whatever. It's chance... I understand... It varies. But Wainwright hitting a batter and throwing a wild pitch? I looked up his 2014 stats and Waino hit 3 batters and had 0 wild pitches for the entire 2014 regular and postseason. 227 innings... so he averages .013 hit batters and wild pitches per inning. In other words, he should hit a batter or throw a wild pitch once every 77 innings. I could summarize his entire career stats but I'm lazy... you'll just have to believe me that his other years are similar. I had this one game where I consecutively committed a string of 6 walked batters, 1 wild pitch, and 1 balk using 4 relievers! Has that ever been done in the history of major league baseball? It wasn't like I was playing as a single A team either... they were all relievers on the 25 man roster for the St. Louis Cardinals. I wish I had a screenshot of the box score but I quit the game in frustration haha. Is there any way I can edit the settings to tone it down a bit? Don't get me wrong... I don't want a Single A reliever to all of the sudden have the control of Bartolo Colon. I still want these mistakes to happen because they happen in real life baseball but I would just like it to be realistic.

11-12-2015, 06:16 PM	#3
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 13,744	Wait until you have the bases loaded and your guy wild-pitches all the runners in - in the course of one at-bat. __________________ Portland Raccoons, 92 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

11-12-2015, 11:18 PM	#6
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	it's completely random. some factors increase or decrease the likelihood, like a tiring pitcher, of course. at the end of the season you can look at wild pitches, hits batsmen, and fielding percentage and make changes to the league total modifiers (don't change the league totals - just the mods - referenced as LTMs below). get an idea of what you want 'normal' to be from baseball-reference.com or wherever else. don't be so focused on a small sample size (your team's results). just because something is supposed to happen 10% of the time doesn't mean it can't happen multiple times in a row. once you have a few seasons of data from the entire league, you will know if the percents are way off. take note of your current LTMs. try running autocalc once and compare the results. e.g. if it has reduced 'wild pitches' by quite a bit, your suspicions were probably right. autocalc can only be used at certain times of the year, i believe. edit: there is a config file you can edit with notepad or any other txt editor. i'd stick to the modifiers in game though. i think it's in the game's root directory... it should stand out. Last edited by NoOne; 11-12-2015 at 11:20 PM.

11-12-2015, 06:07 PM	#2
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	Wainwright has hit 2 batters in a game 3 times in his career. August 5, 2007 April 24, 2010 May 14, 2012 If it happened all the time it would be out of the ordinary but it does happen.

11-12-2015, 06:26 PM	#4
magritte Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 49	I wonder if there's a function that causes these events to cluster? I mean maybe it's just that errors happen when there are people on base (which is surely true statistically), but I feel like if an error is made in an inning, the chance that more errors will occur in that inning is much increased. I wonder if it's proportionate so that everybody is 2x as likely to throw a wild pitch if they've already thrown one that inning, but if the pitcher throws an unusually large number of wild pitches to start with, the doubling causes him to get into absurd territory. Mind you, such things have been known to happen in real life (anyone remember Calvin Schiraldi in Game 6 of the World Series in 1986?). I think I've been noticing it more because I'm playing with 1870's players who make gobs of errors anyway, so they'll sometimes string together errors and passed balls to six or seven consecutive batters. That said, the total number of errors made is consistent with the data, as is the total number of runs. It makes me wonder whether if the statistical probability of hit errors, wild pitches, etc. were imposed uniformly in every inning, perhaps there wouldn't be enough big innings to generate the amount of run scoring observed.