Bad Luck or am I doing something Wrong?

Mrgiraffe00 · 11-14-2015, 02:23 PM

Hello, I have a very serious problem, it seems that whenever I develop a player or even trade for one most of the time they do not live up to their career numbers. For example I was running a mets franchise and usually Matt Harvey would pitch to a 3.5era and degrom to about the same except for one or two years he had to start. Noah Syndergaard devloped into a 5 star pitcher but after two seasons he regressed into a one star pitcher. Same with conforto and most of my other players/prospects. I just wanted to know if there is a reason they are regressing at such a young age and/or not living up to their career numbers. Keep in mind my scouts reputation is "excellent".

ihatenames · 11-14-2015, 03:49 PM

It's probably bad luck. Have you change any league settings are is everything default? Was the is the MLB quickstart or are you running a historical league?

NoOne · 11-14-2015, 04:53 PM

more info needed to know. but most likely bad luck. a good reputation doesn't affect accuracy of ratings. it might help with international FA signing or something else? so, he may or may not be a more accurate scout. the only way to know is to look at his profile in the editor (commish mode?).

i notice on 'normal' scouting accuracy setting, things are generally close (~5-7pts), but on occasion something can be off significantly (~20-30pts). you still get surprises, but the bulk of ratings are mostly accurate. this was tested with a '200' scout and high res scouting scales, 1-100.

that matt harvey thing isn't unusual. take a look at a few retired pitchers' careers. even good players put up stinker years quite often.

if you play 100% stats, you'll have to decide whether your player's ability has fallen off the table or merely had a bad year.

MLB players will change quickly on occasion. a simulated flash-in-the-pan, so to speak. he just got hit with the ugly stick repeatedly over time. the ai, i assume, is indiscriminate

if you've increased "talent change randomness" setting (TCR), it would cause this to happen more often, as well as beneficial talent change, too.

i will only explain the extremes and you can pick what you want in between. a TCR toward zero will result in more consistent development, more consistent aging, and amateur drafts will be less mysterious. you will have fewer good players develop from lower rounds.

increasing it will have the opposite effect, of course. the default of 100 works well for me but each to their own.

RchW · 11-14-2015, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mrgiraffe00

Hello, I have a very serious problem, it seems that whenever I develop a player or even trade for one most of the time they do not live up to their career numbers. For example I was running a mets franchise and usually Matt Harvey would pitch to a 3.5era and degrom to about the same except for one or two years he had to start. Noah Syndergaard devloped into a 5 star pitcher but after two seasons he regressed into a one star pitcher. Same with conforto and most of my other players/prospects. I just wanted to know if there is a reason they are regressing at such a young age and/or not living up to their career numbers. Keep in mind my scouts reputation is "excellent".

The biggest issue you face is name recognition, excessive real life build up and time compression when playing the game over multiple seasons. Note you say "career numbers". Problem with that is that the three pitchers mentioned don't have significant careers IRL. Harvey has 3 seasons plus a major injury, deGrom 2 and Syndergaard 1. Statistically that's not much to go on.

Keep in mind that current MLB roster sets are a snapshot in time. Once you start a league the OOTP development engine takes over as if it just woke from a coma. Regression is common, player development (positive and negative) is rapid, and when it happens to recognizable names it seems wrong. Look around your league and you may find other less well known names doing better than RL. Those are the players you should be interested in. It's not a replay, it's an alternate universe.

Kent814 · 11-14-2015, 08:01 PM

Your luck will turn up soon sometimes a minor league filler will turn into a Cy Young/MVP winner annually a

11-14-2015, 02:23 PM	#1
Mrgiraffe00 Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2	Bad Luck or am I doing something Wrong? Hello, I have a very serious problem, it seems that whenever I develop a player or even trade for one most of the time they do not live up to their career numbers. For example I was running a mets franchise and usually Matt Harvey would pitch to a 3.5era and degrom to about the same except for one or two years he had to start. Noah Syndergaard devloped into a 5 star pitcher but after two seasons he regressed into a one star pitcher. Same with conforto and most of my other players/prospects. I just wanted to know if there is a reason they are regressing at such a young age and/or not living up to their career numbers. Keep in mind my scouts reputation is "excellent".

11-14-2015, 03:49 PM	#2
ihatenames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rockford Posts: 2,534	It's probably bad luck. Have you change any league settings are is everything default? Was the is the MLB quickstart or are you running a historical league? __________________ New Album coming soon!

11-14-2015, 04:53 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	more info needed to know. but most likely bad luck. a good reputation doesn't affect accuracy of ratings. it might help with international FA signing or something else? so, he may or may not be a more accurate scout. the only way to know is to look at his profile in the editor (commish mode?). i notice on 'normal' scouting accuracy setting, things are generally close (~5-7pts), but on occasion something can be off significantly (~20-30pts). you still get surprises, but the bulk of ratings are mostly accurate. this was tested with a '200' scout and high res scouting scales, 1-100. that matt harvey thing isn't unusual. take a look at a few retired pitchers' careers. even good players put up stinker years quite often. if you play 100% stats, you'll have to decide whether your player's ability has fallen off the table or merely had a bad year. MLB players will change quickly on occasion. a simulated flash-in-the-pan, so to speak. he just got hit with the ugly stick repeatedly over time. the ai, i assume, is indiscriminate if you've increased "talent change randomness" setting (TCR), it would cause this to happen more often, as well as beneficial talent change, too. i will only explain the extremes and you can pick what you want in between. a TCR toward zero will result in more consistent development, more consistent aging, and amateur drafts will be less mysterious. you will have fewer good players develop from lower rounds. increasing it will have the opposite effect, of course. the default of 100 works well for me but each to their own.

11-14-2015, 08:01 PM	#5
Kent814 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: San Diego Posts: 650	Your luck will turn up soon sometimes a minor league filler will turn into a Cy Young/MVP winner annually a