Why do the ratings of most players under 30 steadily decline?

allenciox · 12-19-2015, 10:25 PM

So I am new to the game, and I started a historical league starting in 1966 as the Atlanta Braves (this was their first year in Atlanta). It has gone well so far except for one very confusing item: the scouted actual ratings of most players (even those under 30) generally decline. Only those players 25 and younger show any kind of progression, and it is small or nonexistent.

So I actually checked changes in actual ratings from the improvement reports over the first 2 1/2 years of my league for my team and for another team. Here is what I found:

ages Atlanta Baltimore
<= 25: 27 imps, 22 declines 33 imps, 35 declines
26-30 9 imps, 21 declines 10 imps, 22 declines
31-35 2 imps, 9 declines 0 imps, 13 declines
36+ 1 imp, 5 declines 1 imp, 12 declines

I can understand why it has players 31 and over declining most of the time. I guess I am surprised that over 2/3 of the time, players in their later 20s are declining, and even those 25 and under are declining about half the time! Baseball must have lousy coaching. By the way, I did not count overall ratings changes in these numbers as they should be a reflection of the individual rating changes.

Here are settings I am using, in case it matters:

Scouting reports bi-monthly, during season. Accuracy: 100% (there doesn't appear to be a way to change this), ratings scale 20 to 80. Batter aging speed: .75, batter dev, pitcher aging, and pitcher dev. speed: 1. Talent change randomness: 70. No recalc,. AAA only filled with ghost players except for those that eventually come into majors.

Is there something I am missing, something I have set wrong? Or is it going to be the case that the highest rating for a player usually is when they are drafted and there is nothing I can do about it?

Thanks for your help!

perez24 · 12-20-2015, 09:00 AM

My first reaction was all the dope in the 1960s. But reactions to illicit substances is not in this version of OOTP.

Seem to be a lot of opinions. Here's a link that discusses the settings. They seem to run the gamut between leaving them default and changing everything.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...o-you-use.html

Reed · 12-20-2015, 07:39 PM

I think I've read that most players reach there peak around 26 or 27 and then start a decline some can stay near their peak a lot longer than others. The chances of improving after 28/29 is very slim. A lot of players that come up when they are 22-23 but a lot of them are out of the majors in 3 or 4 years. Look at the KC Royals-most of their players are in their prime 26-28 and they have very few players past 30.

allenciox · 12-22-2015, 12:43 PM

By simming this league and some others that I have created, I have found that, yes, among younger players (even those in late teens), with default improvement settings, only about half the improvements are positive ones. This actually works well for leagues that have 5 levels of minors: there are an awful lot of players, and if everyone improved, you would soon have fantastic players in your majors!

However, this really flops when you have one level of minors, or no levels of minors. I have found some settings that "appear" to work in this situation: make batter and pitcher development faster (I am seeming to get good results when batter development is set to 2 and pitcher to 2.5) and reduce the variability parameter below 1.

I am still playing with this and will let people know what I find.

12-19-2015, 10:25 PM	#1
allenciox All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 735	Why do the ratings of most players under 30 steadily decline? So I am new to the game, and I started a historical league starting in 1966 as the Atlanta Braves (this was their first year in Atlanta). It has gone well so far except for one very confusing item: the scouted actual ratings of most players (even those under 30) generally decline. Only those players 25 and younger show any kind of progression, and it is small or nonexistent. So I actually checked changes in actual ratings from the improvement reports over the first 2 1/2 years of my league for my team and for another team. Here is what I found: ages Atlanta Baltimore <= 25: 27 imps, 22 declines 33 imps, 35 declines 26-30 9 imps, 21 declines 10 imps, 22 declines 31-35 2 imps, 9 declines 0 imps, 13 declines 36+ 1 imp, 5 declines 1 imp, 12 declines I can understand why it has players 31 and over declining most of the time. I guess I am surprised that over 2/3 of the time, players in their later 20s are declining, and even those 25 and under are declining about half the time! Baseball must have lousy coaching. By the way, I did not count overall ratings changes in these numbers as they should be a reflection of the individual rating changes. Here are settings I am using, in case it matters: Scouting reports bi-monthly, during season. Accuracy: 100% (there doesn't appear to be a way to change this), ratings scale 20 to 80. Batter aging speed: .75, batter dev, pitcher aging, and pitcher dev. speed: 1. Talent change randomness: 70. No recalc,. AAA only filled with ghost players except for those that eventually come into majors. Is there something I am missing, something I have set wrong? Or is it going to be the case that the highest rating for a player usually is when they are drafted and there is nothing I can do about it? Thanks for your help!

12-22-2015, 12:43 PM	#4
allenciox All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 735	I actually have learned quite a bit by simming By simming this league and some others that I have created, I have found that, yes, among younger players (even those in late teens), with default improvement settings, only about half the improvements are positive ones. This actually works well for leagues that have 5 levels of minors: there are an awful lot of players, and if everyone improved, you would soon have fantastic players in your majors! However, this really flops when you have one level of minors, or no levels of minors. I have found some settings that "appear" to work in this situation: make batter and pitcher development faster (I am seeming to get good results when batter development is set to 2 and pitcher to 2.5) and reduce the variability parameter below 1. I am still playing with this and will let people know what I find.

12-20-2015, 09:00 AM	#2
perez24 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: various Posts: 198	My first reaction was all the dope in the 1960s. But reactions to illicit substances is not in this version of OOTP. Seem to be a lot of opinions. Here's a link that discusses the settings. They seem to run the gamut between leaving them default and changing everything. http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...o-you-use.html

12-20-2015, 07:39 PM	#3
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	I think I've read that most players reach there peak around 26 or 27 and then start a decline some can stay near their peak a lot longer than others. The chances of improving after 28/29 is very slim. A lot of players that come up when they are 22-23 but a lot of them are out of the majors in 3 or 4 years. Look at the KC Royals-most of their players are in their prime 26-28 and they have very few players past 30.