Double steals

SaoMagnifico · 02-14-2016, 09:35 PM

So, uh, I went a bit crazy with double steals this season, and this happened:

Carlos and Maggy are still eating Rickey Henderson's dust in terms of all-time stolen base records for the Athletics franchise, but I obliterated the single-season record for base-stealing since 1890, with the sixth most steals of any team in MLB history.

What I found in the course of playing is that single-steal attempts were relatively easy for opposing pitchers to counter. Above-average runners on first base could swipe second, or could steal third from second, but they were vulnerable to pitchouts, pitchers with good hold ratings, and catchers with strong arms, making it much harder to manufacture runs in those circumstances -- just as it should be. But once I had runners on first and second, the rate of success for double steals (even with slow runners like Yan Gomes, who was rarely successful in steal attempts otherwise) seemed to be significantly higher. What's more, the runners always took off when ordered instead of idling near the bag, seemingly unable to ever get a good enough jump to go. My players combined grounded into just 86 double plays on the season; by comparison, the AL West runner-up Colorado Rockies grounded into 130, and the league-leading Boston Red Sox grounded into 113.

So, my question is: how realistic is this? And given how big an advantage a successful double steal gives a team with 0-1 outs, is this really fair? I cashed in a lot of runners by getting them into scoring position, including on RBI groundouts that would have otherwise been inning-ending double plays. Given how relatively infrequent double steals are in the MLB, maybe they shouldn't be so easy to pull off in OOTP...

bwburke94 · 02-14-2016, 09:41 PM

The success rate of the runner stealing 2nd>3rd should be about the same as any other 2nd>3rd steal. Not sure why double steal odds are coded the way they are.

The Game · 02-15-2016, 02:21 AM

While I dont use double steal often because of lack of overall team speed, when I do I would guess that I have around a 95% success rate. There is one team I play against fairly often that has a C with a 4 arm (1-10) I have a game this season with 11 steals vs him. His CS rate is 26.4% this season. Career is 29.4%. Nice to see people who like to run often in OOTP. Not too many players like this anymore.

JMDurron · 02-15-2016, 09:13 AM

I also run heavily, but only with players who have over a 75% success rate in my modern league. Lots of "Run and Hit" on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to stay out of GIDP, too.

02-14-2016, 09:35 PM	#1
SaoMagnifico Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 144	Double steals So, uh, I went a bit crazy with double steals this season, and this happened: Carlos and Maggy are still eating Rickey Henderson's dust in terms of all-time stolen base records for the Athletics franchise, but I obliterated the single-season record for base-stealing since 1890, with the sixth most steals of any team in MLB history. What I found in the course of playing is that single-steal attempts were relatively easy for opposing pitchers to counter. Above-average runners on first base could swipe second, or could steal third from second, but they were vulnerable to pitchouts, pitchers with good hold ratings, and catchers with strong arms, making it much harder to manufacture runs in those circumstances -- just as it should be. But once I had runners on first and second, the rate of success for double steals (even with slow runners like Yan Gomes, who was rarely successful in steal attempts otherwise) seemed to be significantly higher. What's more, the runners always took off when ordered instead of idling near the bag, seemingly unable to ever get a good enough jump to go. My players combined grounded into just 86 double plays on the season; by comparison, the AL West runner-up Colorado Rockies grounded into 130, and the league-leading Boston Red Sox grounded into 113. So, my question is: how realistic is this? And given how big an advantage a successful double steal gives a team with 0-1 outs, is this really fair? I cashed in a lot of runners by getting them into scoring position, including on RBI groundouts that would have otherwise been inning-ending double plays. Given how relatively infrequent double steals are in the MLB, maybe they shouldn't be so easy to pull off in OOTP... Last edited by SaoMagnifico; 02-14-2016 at 09:37 PM.

02-15-2016, 02:21 AM	#3
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	While I dont use double steal often because of lack of overall team speed, when I do I would guess that I have around a 95% success rate. There is one team I play against fairly often that has a C with a 4 arm (1-10) I have a game this season with 11 steals vs him. His CS rate is 26.4% this season. Career is 29.4%. Nice to see people who like to run often in OOTP. Not too many players like this anymore. __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

02-14-2016, 09:41 PM	#2
bwburke94 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Belchertown, MA, USA Posts: 4,507	The success rate of the runner stealing 2nd>3rd should be about the same as any other 2nd>3rd steal. Not sure why double steal odds are coded the way they are.

02-15-2016, 09:13 AM	#4
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,262	I also run heavily, but only with players who have over a 75% success rate in my modern league. Lots of "Run and Hit" on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to stay out of GIDP, too.