Market Sizes

[PSUColonel]

I am attempting to put together a list for market sizes to be used within OOTP. The first thing people need to realize, is market sizes within OOTP are not about population, but rather media revenue. So the best way to think of market size, is each team's national brand and popularity. So here goes nothing. Market ratings is OOTP span from 1-20, however I will be using 3-11. 3 is tiny, while 11 is astronomical. I am attempting to make these rankings appear current. If you have any input, I'd like to hear from you here.

Here it goes:

11: Yankees

10: Red Sox, Dodgers

9: Giants, Cubs

8: Mets, Cardinals, Angels

7: Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Tigers

6: Blue Jays, Mariners, Braves, White Sox, Astros

5: Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Twins

4: Reds, Padres, Brewers, Royals, Rockies

3: Indians, Rays, Marlins, Athletics

[PSUColonel]

I debated a few here, and still may tweak a little. For instance...Not sure if the Cardinals should be an 8 or 7. Not sure if the Mariners should be 6 or 5. Not sure if Tigers should be 6, or 7

[ThePretender]

Jays should be much higher. Their market is not just Toronto (a major city) but Canada. Beyond that, they're attendance leaders IRL.

[PSUColonel]

again, remember this is about "national brand" and media markets...not saying Toronto shouldn't be higher just keep that in mind. Where would you put the Blue Jays? Would you move Detroit to 7, and Toronto to 6?


EDIT: for now, this is what I did. Please give feedback on what you think might be appropriate.

[ThePretender]

You could make a decent argument for any of 6-8

[nutriahunter]

Being a Astro fan I hate to say it but you probably should drop the 'Stros down by to 5. They just don't have a very big following outside of Houston and even in Houston the Texans and the Cowboys get most of the media attention. I also would bump the Cubs up by 1. They have a huge following

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by nutriahunter

Being a Astro fan I hate to say it but you probably should drop the 'Stros down by to 5. They just don't have a very big following outside of Houston and even in Houston the Texans and the Cowboys get most of the media attention. I also would bump the Cubs up by 1. They have a huge following

Thanks for your input!...The Astros are in a pretty big market, and as you stated, aren't a huge national draw...but they do have some good young talent which is helping their marketability. If it were just market size, I'd make them a 7...so they are likely rising from 5 to 6.

[BBGiovanni]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

again, remember this is about "national brand" and media markets...not saying Toronto shouldn't be higher just keep that in mind. Where would you put the Blue Jays? Would you move Detroit to 7, and Toronto to 6?


EDIT: for now, this is what I did. Please give feedback on what you think might be appropriate.

I might flip-flop the Blue Jays and Phillies. The Blue Jays have been fielding attractive teams for a few years now and control Canada, and the Phillies have been in not-rebuilding mode for a while (although they seem to be turning the corner). Philadelphia isn't a gigantic market in the first place. I'd think about rating the Tigers down a notch because of Detroit, but any of these are just suggestions, in general the numbers look ok.

[PSUColonel]

OK...I found the estimated TV contracts for each MLB team (which is what market size essentially is in OOTP...media contracts) So I have put together a new list based on these numbers. Some of these will be shocking to people. The Yankees are no longer number one for instance. The Athletics being average might also be a bit strange to people as well. The biggest issue I have is with the Blue Jays. You will notice they are missing, so please give your feedback and let me know what you think of this new/amended list. I realize this one will likely draw more debate, so have at it.




(11) Astronomical: Dodgers

(10) Huge: Angels, Yankees

(9) Very Big: Red Sox, Mariners,

(8) Large: Cubs, Phillies, Astros

(7) Rather Big: Rangers, Tigers, Giants

(6) Above Average: White Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets, Nationals, Orioles

(5) Average: Athletics, Indians, Padres, Twins, Braves, Cardinals, Reds

(4) Below Average: Pirates, Brewers, Royals

(3) Small: Marlins, Rockies, Rays

[JaBurns]

I am not sure what Rogers Sportsnet is paying for the Jays broadcast rights but every game is televised nationally which should amount to a huge market. Although the population of Canada may lower that number.

[PSUColonel]

Thinking about putting Torono in large...also thinking of moving Seattle to large, down from very large

[rjl518]

how come the mets are above average when the yankees are in the same city?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Jays should be much higher. Their market is not just Toronto (a major city) but Canada. Beyond that, they're attendance leaders IRL.

I think market in this case refers to local draw. Yes Toronto gets national attention across Canada but in fact they don't benefit from their TV package like other teams because it is an in-house deal. So the national attention the Jays get does nothing for revenues because Rogers doesn't pay market price for TV rights and the Jays don't share in the US national deal AFAIK. Not 100% sure about the US part.

The issue in determining the Toronto market is the population from Oshawa to Niagara approaches 6 million not the 3.5 million pop of Toronto.

Last but not least is currency exchange. Toronto used to get makeup funds from MLB to account for USD exchange. That stopped several seasons ago so they make 25%-30% less from revenues in CAD.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by RchW

Toronto used to get makeup funds from MLB to account for USD exchange. That stopped several seasons ago so they make 25%-30% less from revenues in CAD.

I wonder if that'll resume given the CAD's drop against the USD over the last while.

[PSUColonel]

Thinking I will leave the Mariners where they are and place the Blue Jays in (7) Rather Large.

[PSUColonel]

Would anyone here do things any differently?

[Padreman]

Why 11 for the highest and not 20?

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Padreman

Why 11 for the highest and not 20?

a good question...11 is the "Astronomical" threshold, and the MLB rosters don't use anything above it. if 20 were used, I have no idea what would happen...10 could never be average, as it is the "Huge" rating.

So it goes:

11 Astronomical
10 Huge
9 Very Large
8 Large
7 Rather Large
6 Above Avg
5 Avg
4 Below Avg
3 Small

NOTE: The MLB rosters do not go below 3 either. I assumer (but never checked) there are tiny markets also.

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by RchW

I think market in this case refers to local draw. Yes Toronto gets national attention across Canada but in fact they don't benefit from their TV package like other teams because it is an in-house deal. So the national attention the Jays get does nothing for revenues because Rogers doesn't pay market price for TV rights and the Jays don't share in the US national deal AFAIK. Not 100% sure about the US part.

The issue in determining the Toronto market is the population from Oshawa to Niagara approaches 6 million not the 3.5 million pop of Toronto.

Last but not least is currency exchange. Toronto used to get makeup funds from MLB to account for USD exchange. That stopped several seasons ago so they make 25%-30% less from revenues in CAD.

OP said:

So the best way to think of market size, is each team's national brand and popularity.

So yes, based on what the OP is doing, it's important to factor in how all of Canada impacts on Toronto, where as most of the other teams are regional teams.

[PSUColonel]

I did not have the Media revenue information when I started this, so things have changed a bit. What started out as being extremely subjective, now has some numbers to go on.