When to call up top prospects

[brian_msbc]

I have an 21 year old 80 FV 3B that developed so much over the off-season that he’s now my best 3B and ready to play in the majors. However my current 3B is very good. Should I start the youngster on opening day or wait until June 5th? I’ve heard it’s beneficial to wait a month, and he’s not so much better than my current 3B that there’s a large drop off.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

When to call up top prospects

1) when they are ready
2) when it makes sense for your team to do it

The reason it's beneficial to wait to bring up a prospect is that:
-If you bring a player up on opening day 2020, they will be a free agent after the 2025 season
-If you wait, they will be a free agent after the 2026 season.

Another benefit to waiting is that, if the player still has room do develop, they'll be more developed when you do bring them up. Just to make a very oversimplified example. Say you call this player up now, and they are good enough to hit 100 home runs over the next six seasons until they become a free agent. If you wait a year, and they develop more, they will be able to hit 120 home runs over the six years. You get more production over the same time.

A disadvantage is that by taking away a year of MLB time, they'll have a shorter career and less time to compile career numbers. Imagine this player misses the career home run record by 1 home run and you waited a season to bring them up.

Also, these are just digital representations of players, but with real life human players, teams are taking money away from the players by bringing them up later in the season. And by delaying their time to free agency, they are risking tens of hundreds of millions of dollars of potential earnings.

[TomVeal]

In real life, some players and more fans resent delayed call-ups, but OOTP doesn't seem to incorporate that psychological factor.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by TomVeal

In real life, some players and more fans resent delayed call-ups, but OOTP doesn't seem to incorporate that psychological factor.

Right

Kris Bryant is the most recent high profile case
https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2020/01/29...-through-2021/

This is something that OOTP doesn't incorporate. And something that the players basically never win IRL

[brian_msbc]

Ok great, so I think I would be best advised to delay his call-up. Is June 5th the official call-up date for prospects that are ready to start?

[Charlie Hough]

I would start the best player at that position, regardless of age. But I would make sure he's truly better overall, including offensively, defensively and running the bases. And if you're using the morale system and your current 3B has been promised a starting position or might get upset over being replaced, you may want to keep that in mind as well.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

Ok great, so I think I would be best advised to delay his call-up. Is June 5th the official call-up date for prospects that are ready to start?

There is no official call-up date

I'm not sure the exact numbers (and it might be different in your league), but it works like this

A season is, say, 180 days long
To get 1 service time year a player has to get, say, 172 days in the active roster.
If you bring them up on the 10th day of the season, they will only get (180-9) 171 service days. That's less than 172 so it won't count as a full service year. They will have to play 6 more full seasons to reach free agency.

There is also arbitration and super-two.

A player is eligible for arbitration after 3 full service years. Like with free agency, if the end a season with 2 years and 171 days, they have to wait a full extra year to be eligible.

But, if they are in the top, I think, 27% of players with 2 years and some days of service time, they become eligible for arbitration before their third year. So a player with 2 years 171 days would certainly be eligible for arbitration early.

[Bobfather]

Not counting salary implications. I have a 3 step process. When I have an open roster spot I call him up. Play him 4-8 times in two weeks. This way I can see what he has, and the incumbent is still playing. Then I return him to the minors and have him work on what he needs. A few weeks later I recall him, play him more often this time. Rinse repeat. This way I take the pressure off the player to be great right away. And I don't have a .180 hitter clogging the lineup. In the last 7 seasons, I have 5 ROYs. (2 pitchers). For pitchers I use the old Earl Weaver plan, Start in long/middle relief for most of the first year. With Starters getting less than 5 spot starts. And easing relievers into higher leverage situations. Also, I play out all my games, if simming not sure if this would work. I've had success with this, may not work for everyone. It works for me though.

[ThePretender]

There's no benefit to delaying service time in ootp. The risk in real life is players won't sign an extension. That risk doesn't exist here. Bring them up opening day if they are ready.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

There's no benefit to delaying service time in ootp. The risk in real life is players won't sign an extension. That risk doesn't exist here. Bring them up opening day if they are ready.

I think you mean there is no risk in OOTP.

The benefit is that you get an extra year before free agency. Thus, you "should" delay bringing them up until they won't receive a full year or service time in year 1.

[ThePretender]

Except you can easily sign a 5 year deal in ootp during arbitration bypassing that extra year of control. All you're doing by delaying a prospect's promotion is guaranteeing you get less production out of the player when you're never in any danger of losing said player to fa in OOTP.

In real life there is a real risk of losing the player who won't sign an extension. That doesn't happen in ootp so it's pointless to delay promotion. Get them up when they're ready.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Except you can easily sign a 5 year deal in ootp during arbitration bypassing that extra year of control. All you're doing by delaying a prospect's promotion is guaranteeing you get less production out of the player when you're never in any danger of losing said player to fa in OOTP.

In real life there is a real risk of losing the player who won't sign an extension. That doesn't happen in ootp so it's pointless to delay promotion. Get them up when they're ready.

Sure

Though, signing a player to a multi-year contract has its own risks and rewards
Risk-The player is injured or doesn't perform
Reward-you are typically getting the player for a lower salary (because the team is assuming risk)

[ThePretender]

I'll gladly take the discounted salary and the minimal risk associated to it if it means I play the guy from day 1. That extra production matters in a close division race. And even if I wait till the player has 4 or 5 years of service I'm still not concerned with my ability to extend them in ootp. There is no upside to delaying service time here. The extra year of control isn't worth it here. It's trying to copy mlb teams but we don't have the same consequences here.

If anything i test my prospects in August even if they're close but not fully developed (45-50 ovr) to see if they can handle a full time spot for April. Especially if they have to be added to the 40 man the next year.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

I'll gladly take the discounted salary and the minimal risk associated to it if it means I play the guy from day 1. That extra production matters in a close division race. And even if I wait till the player has 4 or 5 years of service I'm still not concerned with my ability to extend them in ootp. There is no upside to delaying service time here. The extra year of control isn't worth it here. It's trying to copy mlb teams but we don't have the same consequences here.

Holding a player back for a few weeks is a pretty minimal consequence as well.
Like many things in baseball, and life, it's about finding the balance.

Some players, like Trevor Bauer. Prefer to go year to year trying to maximize their total dollar value. Other players, like Ozzie Albies, sign long-term deals that assure them life-changing wealth while likely leaving potentially millions, or tens of millions, on the proverbial table.

Teams have begun to favor these long-term pre-arb extensions for the reasons that you mentioned. Even if a few players don't work out, the teams more than make up for it with the ones that do.

[ThePretender]

You are talking about real life. I don't disagree. My argument is in OOTP it makes no sense.

Also Albies is a terrible example, that was awful advice by his agent. Shouldn't be used as a real example.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

You are talking about real life. I don't disagree. My argument is in OOTP it makes no sense.

Also Albies is a terrible example, that was awful advice by his agent. Shouldn't be used as a real example.

If it makes no sense in OOTP then OOTP is not accurately modeling real life and a change should be made

Could be that the players are accepting too small of contracts. Or that it is too easy to sign them.

[Brad K]

"When to call up top prospects"

For me its usually when someone gets injured.