Mystery guys

[Andrej72]

Hi Fellows!

I am just curious your opinion. I have these two guys on my team, and I just can't figure them out.

Delgado should be a solid major league player by his ratings and still his offensive performance is way below acceptable level. I know that only 10 games played in the season and from 10 games it is hard to tell any kind of statistic, but can we say that this guy is right now struggling, and we can hope he will improve?


Then there is Walton, I got him from Oklahoma City where he had .364 AVG and .364 OBP in 11 PA. As you can see in our team he has .000 in 4 PA.


I really want to improve the team's batting average and OBP, but I guess that there is not any strategy or other kind of setting by which I can achieve this. Strategy does not start working until a player gets on base. Or is there any way to instruct a guy with high gap power to aim for the gaps and try not to hit flyball?

[CBeisbol]

It's no mystery
It takes A LOT more playing time that 1 or 10 games

One of the most difficult tasks a responsible baseball analyst must take on involves avoiding small samples of data to make definitive claims about a player. If Victor Martinez goes 4-10, it does not automatically make him a .400 hitter.

The question asked most often with regards to small sample sizes is essentially – When are the samples not small anymore? As in, at what juncture does the data become meaningful? Martinez at 4-10 is meaningless. Martinez at 66-165, like he is right now, tells us much, much more, but still is not enough playing time. What are the benchmarks for plate appearances where certain statistics become reliable?

Cutter basically searched for the point at which split-half reliability tests produced a 0.70 correlation or higher.

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-sam...come-reliable/

This data, of course, is for major league baseball, not for OOTP. One could do their own analysis of OOTP if they wanted. My guess is that the split-half correlations would be higher (fewer PA's) in OOTP. But that's a guess. But they still wouldn't be anything like what you list for the above players

Originally Posted by Andrej72

I really want to improve the team's batting average and OBP

Focus on playing players with high contact and eye ratings

but I guess that there is not any strategy or other kind of setting by which I can achieve this. Strategy does not start working until a player gets on base. Or is there any way to instruct a guy with high gap power to aim for the gaps and try not to hit flyball?

No
You may be able to get hitting coaches who focus on contact or patience. But the effects of this will
1) be subtle
2) take years, not a few games because those coaches will influence your prospects' hitting development. Your major league hitting coach should also have some effect, but, again, it will be subtle.

[Andrej72]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

It's no mystery
It takes A LOT more playing time that 1 or 10 games


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-sam...come-reliable/

This data, of course, is for major league baseball, not for OOTP. One could do their own analysis of OOTP if they wanted. My guess is that the split-half correlations would be higher (fewer PA's) in OOTP. But that's a guess. But they still wouldn't be anything like what you list for the above players

So then, this is challenge in a fantasy league's first season. There is not historical data for the players by which they can be judged. Mostly we can use their ratings and personality traits, but that's all.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

So then, this is challenge in a fantasy league's first season. There is not historical data for the players by which they can be judged. Mostly we can use their ratings and personality traits, but that's all.

Yes
The batting statistics will mean next to nothing until there are a few hundred or more plate appearances.

[Andrej72]

So one more thing then. If I understand correctly I do not really have any influnce whatsoever on a batter when he steps up to the plate. Only "God" knows if it will be a base hit or a fly out, right?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

So one more thing then. If I understand correctly I do not really have any influnce whatsoever on a batter when he steps up to the plate.

Pretty much
You can do things like bunt or hit and run. Those are more likely to hurt OBP than help it

[Charlie Hough]

Always focus on player ratings and not statistics. A player's compiled statistics in OOTP are only a measure of past results, and as CBeisbol has said, you need a LOT of statistics before you can draw a valid conclusion.

Players will have slumps, streaks, and will sometimes underperform or overperform compared to your expectations. This can happen over an entire season too, especially due to statistical probabilities and randomness. There are standard variations that seem extreme to an observer, but they are within the realm of normal statistical probabilities. For example, a player whose ratings indicate that he should probably hit .300 might only hit .275 for a season because he goes through a long slump. We see these fluctuations in real life all the time, and when they happen in OOTP, they can be frustrating, but they are normal.

Here's a good example. I have a CF in my fictional league who had an amazing season one year ago. He hit far better than his ratings would indicate and finished in the top 5 in batting average despite only having a 6 contact rating on a 10-point scale. At one point he was hitting around .383 and still finished around .350. He was going to be a free agent, so I rewarded him with an expensive long-term contract extension.

Then he started the first month of his second season hitting an abysmal .150 to .170. He was cold and slumping for the first few weeks. I kept him out of the lineup on occasion or dropped him to the bottom of the lineup because he was doing so poorly. I even tried to trade him away and no one would take him. But I kept giving him chances, and suddenly he has been on an amazing streak and is now hitting a bit over .300 for the season, only two weeks after he was barely hitting .200. Be patient and keep playing or simulating games. Eventually a player's ratings will usually win out. But it's perfectly acceptable to bench a player or take him out of your pitching rotation or bullpen if it seems like he's in a bad slump and you want to minimize damage. You can do something like I did and give him chances to break out of the slump without playing him as a regular.

[BullDozier]

I also have a struggling slugger in Twins simulation that I am doing. Miguel Sano has a 39% strike out rate and a 78 OPS+. I looked into somehow tinkering with his strategies with no affect. I have simply moved him down the line up to at least reduce the amount of at bats. Like real baseball , he is just going to struggle. Hopefully he may have an uptick come play off time but I will simply play others up the line up that are producing.

[Andrej72]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Pretty much
You can do things like bunt or hit and run. Those are more likely to hurt OBP than help it

In fact the image is more complex if I watch other stats than the AVG alone. If I look at OBP and WOBA we are in the upper half of the league, while our base running is pretty bad. How can this be improved?

As for pitching, if I look ERA it is nothing impressive, but pitching WAR and FIP indicate that in fact our pitching performance is not bad at all, so I would conclude that relatively higher ERA is the consequence of bad fielding performance, if I am not mistaken.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

In fact the image is more complex if I watch other stats than the AVG alone. If I look at OBP and WOBA we are in the upper half of the league, while our base running is pretty bad. How can this be improved?

How can base running be improved?
Get better base runners is one way. But then you have to balance getting good base runners with getting good hitters. It can be hard to find players that are both.

If you take a base runner whom is producing 10 runs by base running, but -10 runs by batting and replace them with a better who produces 10 runs by batting but loses 5 runs base running, your team is better off, even if your base running is worse.

This is the whole game. Balancing a weakness in one area with a strength in another.


The other way is to pay careful attention to your base running strategy sliders.

Are your base runners running too much? Not enough?
Are your base runners attempting too many steals? Not enough?

As for pitching, if I look ERA it is nothing impressive, but pitching WAR and FIP indicate that in fact our pitching performance is not bad at all, so I would conclude that relatively higher ERA is the consequence of bad fielding performance, if I am not mistaken.

Yes. I believe that is the information we told you when you asked that question before.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

In fact the image is more complex if I watch other stats than the AVG alone. If I look at OBP and WOBA we are in the upper half of the league, while our base running is pretty bad. How can this be improved?

Baserunning is hugely important in baseball and especially OOTP. I always prioritize pitching, defense, and baserunning in OOTP, and it has never failed me. I also manage all of my games, so I can control a lot of the baserunning decisions. But if you're not managing your games, it's especially important to have players who make smart baserunning decisions and are reasonably fast so they can take extra bases and avoid being thrown out.

If you play out games, you will see slow and poor baserunners cause a lot of double plays as a runner or hitter, and they'll get thrown out again and again. They limit offense and end rallies far too often, so it's often better to find a comparable player who runs the bases better.

As a good example, I had a RF on my current team who was a very good defender and batter, but he was really poor on the base paths. After watching him end or reduce rallies again and again through double plays, I traded him away for a comparable player with average baserunning. That alone has made a major difference, and now when my team plays against him, he hits pretty well against us, but he ends up in a lot of double plays and sometimes two in a game. Meanwhile, his replacement has clearly given us better overall production due to his better baserunning, even though his baserunning ratings are still only average. But average is a lot better than garbage.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Always focus on player ratings and not statistics.

This applies when 100% accurate ratings are used. Some consideration should be given to statistics when realistic scouting is used. How much depends on the setting for scouting accuracy.

AI managers do this. Consider the default setting for AI reliance on ratings, this year stats, last year stats, two years ago stats.

[Andrej72]

After complaining about low AVG and low OBP a hit galore game came against the Buckeyes. Everybody in the starting lineup scored at least one hit. :-) Pitching was also pretty solid, end rotation lefty Robby Sadowski had a decent outing. Working 7 innings he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits, while struck out 5 and walked 2. Chris Crane closed the game without any problems.

[Andrej72]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Baserunning is hugely important in baseball and especially OOTP. I always prioritize pitching, defense, and baserunning in OOTP, and it has never failed me. I also manage all of my games, so I can control a lot of the baserunning decisions. But if you're not managing your games, it's especially important to have players who make smart baserunning decisions and are reasonably fast so they can take extra bases and avoid being thrown out.

If you play out games, you will see slow and poor baserunners cause a lot of double plays as a runner or hitter, and they'll get thrown out again and again. They limit offense and end rallies far too often, so it's often better to find a comparable player who runs the bases better.

As a good example, I had a RF on my current team who was a very good defender and batter, but he was really poor on the base paths. After watching him end or reduce rallies again and again through double plays, I traded him away for a comparable player with average baserunning. That alone has made a major difference, and now when my team plays against him, he hits pretty well against us, but he ends up in a lot of double plays and sometimes two in a game. Meanwhile, his replacement has clearly given us better overall production due to his better baserunning, even though his baserunning ratings are still only average. But average is a lot better than garbage.

I manage only substitutions on my ballgames. However, I set player startegy myslef, so I guess it make sense to set more agressive base running startegy for player who are especially good at base running.

[Andrej72]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

As a good example, I had a RF on my current team who was a very good defender and batter, but he was really poor on the base paths. After watching him end or reduce rallies again and again through double plays, I traded him away for a comparable player with average baserunning. That alone has made a major difference, and now when my team plays against him, he hits pretty well against us, but he ends up in a lot of double plays and sometimes two in a game. Meanwhile, his replacement has clearly given us better overall production due to his better baserunning, even though his baserunning ratings are still only average. But average is a lot better than garbage.

Is there any way to see if a player gives up double plays like that? I mean any page or statistic?

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

Is there any way to see if a player gives up double plays like that? I mean any page or statistic?

If you go into a batter's statistics and choose one of the other detailed stat views, you should be able to see his stats for grounding into double plays (GIDP or DP).

Also, I don't remember if it's included and calculated in OOTP, but there is a sabermetric statistic called Ultimate Base Running (UBR) that tries to measure how many runs a player adds or substracts for his team based on his baserunning. If OOTP uses it, then that's another relevant stat you can reference.

[Andrej72]

That guy is a good base runner by his ratings, and still his UBR is -0.7 at the moment.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

That guy is a good base runner by his ratings, and still his UBR is -0.7 at the moment.

Yes

I flipped one coin one time and it landed on tails 100% of the time. Even though coins only have a 50% chance of landing on tails.

[Andrej72]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Yes

I flipped one coin one time and it landed on tails 100% of the time. Even though coins only have a 50% chance of landing on tails.

That's true. However if you check projection for the season it is still -0.7, while other stats e.g. WAR is is not.....

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Andrej72

That's true. However if you check projection for the season it is still -0.7, while other stats e.g. WAR is is not.....

That looks like a bug

These "projections" aren't really projections

They are just the current season stats prorated to a full season.

You've played about 1/12 of the season, so it should show a "projection" of (-.7 * 12) -8.4.

But that would not be the number you'd expect at the end of the season. Only if the next 148 games were exactly like the 14 games the player has already played.