How does potential work?

[DrEntropy]

I am coming new to OOTP from football manager (which i am not that great at either lol!) and am having trouble understanding how potential works in OOTP. In FM, if you have a player with 4 star potential, that is a pretty good estimate of his final maximum 'overall' rating. In OOTP, I am not sure what it means. I hope it is not maximum potential, since in that case all my players in rookie leagues are rubbish, as they have at most 2.5 star potential. I have heard it said that potential can increase over time?

TL;DR, how is potential defined in OOTP?

[Ktulu]

Potential can increase or decrease and there is no guarantee that a player will ever reach his potential. Scouting also serves as a "fog of war" so the potential your scout sees may not be his the player's actual potential (same applies to overall ratings)

[DrEntropy]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

Potential can increase or decrease and there is no guarantee that a player will ever reach his potential. Scouting also serves as a "fog of war" so the potential your scout sees may not be his the player's actual potential (same applies to overall ratings)

Sure but i can go into commissioner mode and even the best rookies dont have that much potential it seems. Will some of them turn into superstars anyway? How can i determine this ? I suspect I am just looking at this wrong from my FM experience.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

Sure but i can go into commissioner mode and even the best rookies dont have that much potential it seems. Will some of them turn into superstars anyway? How can i determine this ? I suspect I am just looking at this wrong from my FM experience.

Baseball is harder to predict than other sports; first round draft picks, even high ones, very commonly flame out or turn into merely good but not great players. A lot of the movement is random like, frankly, it should be (although OOTP’s development is still significantly less chaotic than real life). The best way to “determine” talent, really, is to get a lot of it and hope.

[DrEntropy]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

The best way to “determine” talent, really, is to get a lot of it and hope.

Ha! Gotcha! I also am finding that looking at stats is much more useful in baseball vs other sports!

[GBN]

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

Ha! Gotcha! I also am finding that looking at stats is much more useful in baseball vs other sports!

Absolutely. Find a combination of stats and scouting ratings that suits you. You should also pay attention to character traits in addition to potential. Work ethic and intelligence for example, help to reach or even exceed the potential.

[chazzycat]

Also, different kinds of scouts prefer tools vs. ability, so a given player's potential can change just based on who is scouting them. A scout who "favors tools" would be likely to have a higher potential rating for a young undeveloped prospect than a "favors ability" scout, who needs to see more proof of performance to assign a higher rating.

[Pdubya64]

DE:
One of the hardest concepts to grasp and then not forget in OOTP is how the scouting system works (also a good reason to pay attention to stats!).

The analogy I have settled on is that every single head scout has on his own particular pair of "Rose-colored glasses" (Google it if not familiar) when he looks at players. As chazzycat says, tools vs. ability comes into play, along with the basic yardstick of the HS's rating. Obviously a low-rated HS is going to "miss" more often than a better one. Then there is the overall GAME setting for scouting accuracy. You can set it where it is perfect (not much fun in my estimation) to downright crazy random.
At the end of the day, trust the stats, make a few bets on your HS's reports if he is pretty good and trust your instincts, then develop it as you play the game. Just realize there are a LOT of underlying "cogs" that make the big OOTP Player Development wheel go 'round.

Try not to get too frustrated.

[DrEntropy]

Originally Posted by Pdubya64

Try not to get too frustrated.

Indeed! I guess my main frustration is trying to decide which players are just not going to amount to much. But I am only getting started so hope it will come with time and experience. But wait, maybe my potential is not that great as a manager.....

[uhsfb5]

I recommend using the "Ratings relative to:" function as well (if you're not already). When you're looking at your rookie leagues and even many A-class prospects, the majority are 20ovr and 20-30 potential. However, if you change your ratings relative to their current level, you can get a better idea of their current potential. And yes, potential increases and decreases often, especially with young prospects, as it does in real life. What I do is create a shortlist of the most promising pitching prospects and position-player prospects within my organization - usually around 20 position players and 10 pitchers. I base it on age, overall, potential, work ethic, and prior performance. Then once a month, I go through the shortlist and check to make sure their potential hasn't decreased, and I promote/demote based on performance and scouting changes (but mostly performance). Additionally, once every 2 months, I scrub my entire organizational roster to determine whether any prospects have been upgraded in regard to potential. If an 19-year-old prospect goes from a 40 to 45 MLB potential (as an example), and he isn't underperforming, I'll add him to the shortlist to keep an eye on him. Contrarily, if a 22-year-old prospect has a decrease in potential, and he is underperforming for a few months, I'll likely take him off my shortlist. I'm not worried about whether he makes a "comeback" or not, because if he does, I'll find him again in a couple months when I rescrub my roster, and I'll add him back to my shortlist. I let the AI run the minor league system, but I keep my shortlisted prospects on specific game strategies, and I lock them to their current minor league team. Out of your entire minor league system, only 10% will ever make it to the majors and far fewer will be stars or even have long, successful careers. There is no way to fully determine which prospects will amount to anything, which is how it is in real life. That's what makes it fun (for me anyway). That's why you need to continuously scout and keep an eye on your prospects. At any moment, you may get an underperforming prospect who starts balling out and becomes a perennial all-star; or you may get a former 1st round pick who fast-tracked through the minor league system and absolutely tore it up who flames out in AAA and never even reaches the big leagues. Just my 2 cents. Either way, you'll eventually find a system/process that works for you. It can be overwhelming at first, but once you get used to it, it's addicting!

EDIT: Oh yeah, remember to keep an eye on the scouting accuracy of each prospect as well.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

Indeed! I guess my main frustration is trying to decide which players are just not going to amount to much. But I am only getting started so hope it will come with time and experience. But wait, maybe my potential is not that great as a manager.....

If you play with historical players in historical years their actual stats are right there to look at. If this makes it too easy (it will after a while) enable talent change randomness and use both recalc and development. And then when that becomes too easy increase talent change randomness and/or cut your payroll.

No need being frustrated. Get rid of features until you can do reasonably well and then add them back in when things get too easy.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

I am coming new to OOTP from football manager (which i am not that great at either lol!) and am having trouble understanding how potential works in OOTP. In FM, if you have a player with 4 star potential, that is a pretty good estimate of his final maximum 'overall' rating. In OOTP, I am not sure what it means. I hope it is not maximum potential, since in that case all my players in rookie leagues are rubbish, as they have at most 2.5 star potential. I have heard it said that potential can increase over time?

TL;DR, how is potential defined in OOTP?

As an avid FM player, there are some key differences between potential in OOTP and FM. As you may know, potential ability in FM is set. I'm speaking of the background, "true" ratings. Does not change whatsoever. In OOTP, potential can absolutely change.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

I am coming new to OOTP from football manager (which i am not that great at either lol!) and am having trouble understanding how potential works in OOTP. In FM, if you have a player with 4 star potential, that is a pretty good estimate of his final maximum 'overall' rating. In OOTP, I am not sure what it means. I hope it is not maximum potential, since in that case all my players in rookie leagues are rubbish, as they have at most 2.5 star potential. I have heard it said that potential can increase over time?

TL;DR, how is potential defined in OOTP?

A couple of things... a 2.5 star player can be a very good player. Second, star ratings aren't a very good way to judge players in OOTP IMHO. You're better off with the realistic scale of 20-80 increments of 5, IMHO.

Back to your 2.5 star potential player. If he stays on course and gets to that level he may have one or two decent to very good skills that will allow him to make it to The Show. He's just not going to be a 4 or 5 tool guy.

Originally Posted by DrEntropy

Sure but i can go into commissioner mode and even the best rookies dont have that much potential it seems. Will some of them turn into superstars anyway? How can i determine this ? I suspect I am just looking at this wrong from my FM experience.

Not being able to determine this is a strength of OOTP not a weakness. The game mimics real life nicely in this way and is working as intended.

I have a LF I drafted in the 12th round that was a 25 pot on the 20-80 scale three years ago. Currently has 65 pot, about to come up from AAA, and looks to be an all-star LF if he continues to grow. Avg contact and gap, ++ power, + avoid K, and ++ eye, with average defensive range and a + glove. Yes, he's coming along nicely

You're getting a ton of good advice in your thread. Watch a combination of stats and scout ratings and do your best. Oh yeah, don't forget about a player's personal makeup IE work ethic, intelligence, adaptability etc. Some you are counting on will flame out while others, like my LF above, will come out of almost nowhere to amaze and surprise you.

Enjoy the ride.

[Brad K]

I think somewhere in the responses are the answers but there are really two questions here.

How does potential work - fictional

How does potential work - historic

[DrEntropy]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I have a LF I drafted in the 12th round that was a 25 pot on the 20-80 scale three years ago. Currently has 65 pot, about to come up from AAA, and looks to be an all-star LF if he continues to grow. Avg contact and gap, ++ power, + avoid K, and ++ eye, with average defensive range and a + glove. Yes, he's coming along nicely
.

Ah this is just the sort of thing i was wondering could happen! Thanks! I will be a little bit less ruthless with my minor league players from now on!

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

Potential can increase or decrease and there is no guarantee that a player will ever reach his potential. Scouting also serves as a "fog of war" so the potential your scout sees may not be his the player's actual potential (same applies to overall ratings)

Potential means nothing for anyone 30 or over.
So if you want some random behavior or older people to play longer....it won't work.
Try it. Set 10 players over 30 with 250 potential in editor. One it won't show on ratings page. Two it will have no effect on the player

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Potential means nothing for anyone 30 or over.
So if you want some random behavior or older people to play longer....it won't work.
Try it. Set 10 players over 30 with 250 potential in editor. One it won't show on ratings page. Two it will have no effect on the player

Which makes complete sense.