Draft Questions

Pelican · 01-07-2022, 02:27 PM

I have just completed the 2021 first-year player free agent draft. This was my first experience with scouting and drafting players. A bit easier, I admit, since it involved current players (some of whom I already know well). Still, I had to rely heavily on scouting reports and projections.

I’m currently negotiating with my top draft pick (#5 overall), who is categorized as difficult to sign. I gather this reflects, in part, that young stars would sometimes rather not end up with losing teams (the teams drafting first), causing certain players (and their agents) to resist signing, for more than just more money. My Orioles team may not seem too attractive to high draft picks from that standpoint. First question, should I have avoided guys rated as difficult to sign, since I only have a month to negotiate? I realize I might end up with nothing more than a compensation pick next year.

So, I made an offer that I thought matched the “slot” figure and the bonus the guy (Jack Leither, by the way) was seeking. I somehow managed to do this within my overall budget. But it appears that Jack is not willing to take my “yes” for an answer. Uh-oh. What are my options here? The negotiation screen does not seem to let me take any further action, I guess until there is a formal response? Also, the way in which the screen shows the offer and bonus has numbers I don’t recognize. Is there any way for me to get to that original negotiation screen? It seems like I am stuck waiting. IRL my owner would be saying WTF and having me pressuring Jack to sign. I don’t like having zero options as this point. Thoughts?

andjbock · 01-10-2022, 10:00 AM

Once you've submitted the offer you have to stick with it, unlike a pending FA offer.

In my experience, the difference other than "impossible" makes it so you can sign a draftee without much of an issue. At the very least, you'll get at least one more shot to sign him.

Bobbyraz49 · 01-10-2022, 10:46 AM

When I see a player in the draft, and it states " impossible" I believe it.

andjbock · 01-10-2022, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobbyraz49

When I see a player in the draft, and it states " impossible" I believe it.

I stay 100% away from them. Even if it's in round 25 (my last) there's no real point unless you have too many players in the minors and want to free up the space.

Sweed · 01-10-2022, 12:03 PM

Yeah, as long as he's not "impossible" you should be able to get him if you pay enough. Does he have other options? IOW if he's a college senior not may places to go other than sitting out a year. Unless you have independent leagues? I don't know on that as I don't have ILs. If he has the option to return to school than he has more power.

In either case, if you know he's a hard sell, then overpay on the first offer if you can and get the contract signed. How much? Yeah that is the question

I don't think the large ask is because they don't want to sign with a weaker team. As IRL there aren't a lot of options, players almost never go from school to the show, so it's more about knowing their worth in the market and using what leverage they have. Again an underclassmen or HS player has quite a bit of leverage.

The large ask can be to force teams to not draft them. Think of Mark Prior and his price when the Twins picked 1 and the Cubs 2. However in that case the Twins got Joe Mauer and who's to say they wouldn't have selected him anyway over Prior? But in any case those large amounts are there, like real life, so teams do have to take into account if they can afford to sign the guy. If they can't the may have to be happy taking the best guy available they can sign.

But then back to the original point on changing the offer? Not happening, you'll have to wait for the reaction. That goes back to my earlier point of making a "great" offer for a first offer if you really want/need to get the guy under contract.

Pelican · 01-10-2022, 01:04 PM

Many thanks to all for the advice. Looks like through dumb luck my generous offer out of the box was the right move. [I was thinking "hey, it ain't MY money; but with a short thirty-day window, there is precious little time to mess around with negotiations...] I'll be patient as to a response. I don't think Leiter would have options other than independent leagues. I have a full compliment, and he would be welcome to chill until the 2022 draft with my Hilton Head Loggerheads in the Atlantic League. I can't understand the logic of that for his career; but I bitterly recall J.D. Drew turning down a generous offer from the the Phillies and saying there was no way he would play for them, supposedly a result of divine guidance. I found that tremendously offensive, as a Phillies fan and a Christian. [First, would God really bother with million-dollar baseball contracts rather than starvation, war, famine; second, why would she hate on the Phillies?!]. He wasted a year playing indy ball, and then went on to a mediocre career. For years he was lustily booed in Philly (usually reserved for the home team players). So I hope I don't end up with that situation. At this point I don't want to "bid against myself", but IRL I would like to meet with Leiter and his agent and emphasize how short his path to MLB could be, particularly if he signs and gets some time in the minors this year, maybe Florida instructional league, impressive Spring Training, who knows?

andjbock · 01-10-2022, 05:15 PM

I forgot to post this earlier but here is a guy who didn't sign with me. It took him 7 years to record any stats because he toiled away in the Mexican Winter League reserve roster. Thats all he could amount to!

http://ootp.biz/lgreports/players/player_17756.html

Pelican · 01-11-2022, 10:51 PM

I’m getting a little nervous. Ten days in, and no word from the Leiter camp. All my other draft picks are in the fold, including a couple rated difficult to sign. I have a question about the compensation pick, if he doesn’t sign. I understand that Baltimore would only get the compensation pick if he is drafted in the first three rounds of the next (2022) draft. So, does that mean the pick would not occur until the draft after that (2023). That seems unfair. In this case, if he doesn’t sign now, Leiter would be a sure first-round pick next year, unless he got hurt or performed poorly wherever he ends up playing. It would totally suck to wait another year to draft a compensation pick that would be way below the fifth pick I used for Leiter. I just reread the scouting report on him, and it is glowing. Ugh. Patience.

oldfatbaldguy · 01-12-2022, 12:18 AM

What other people have said about taking "impossible" seriously. I learned that the hard way. In my current save I've got a challenge I hadn't seen before, an owner who sets an absurdly low draft budget and takes it seriously. He'll let me go over it to offer slot, but not more than slot. No dipping into "money for free agents." So if a player's demand is more than slot, I can't draft him.

Sweed · 01-12-2022, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelican

I’m getting a little nervous. Ten days in, and no word from the Leiter camp. All my other draft picks are in the fold, including a couple rated difficult to sign. I have a question about the compensation pick, if he doesn’t sign. I understand that Baltimore would only get the compensation pick if he is drafted in the first three rounds of the next (2022) draft. So, does that mean the pick would not occur until the draft after that (2023). That seems unfair. In this case, if he doesn’t sign now, Leiter would be a sure first-round pick next year, unless he got hurt or performed poorly wherever he ends up playing. It would totally suck to wait another year to draft a compensation pick that would be way below the fifth pick I used for Leiter. I just reread the scouting report on him, and it is glowing. Ugh. Patience.

I believe in OOTP you will be guaranteed the pick. I think one spot below where you picked him this year? If he was the overall #1 your comp will be pick #2 overall. Or maybe there is a rule about top 5 picks not being comped at "last yr pick +1" and the pick will be farther down?

I know I've seen AI teams not sign a top 1 or 2 and thought they got the "pick + 1 spot"? But it's been awhile and I'm not 100% sure.

Pelican · 01-15-2022, 01:54 PM

I can certainly live with that compensation pick. He was #5 as memory serves, so a #6 pick in the next draft would be awesome if he does not sign. Now, that would be a supplementary pick, correct? At this point in the season (late July), my Orioles are closing in on the #2 pick, clearly top five. So I could end up drafting twice in the top 6? Still no word on the pending offer. It’s about halfway through the month.

Pelican · 01-19-2022, 12:44 PM

Great news! He signed! Locked up for three years at $1,141,000 annually, total of $3,423,000, plus a signing bonus of $4.8 million, for a grand total of $8,223,000 over the life of the contract. No further negotiations. That was my first offer.

I realize it's a lot of money, but he is already 21, and can be projected in the middle of the Orioles' rotation in a few years. Plus, there was enough dough left over to sign each of my other draftees, most of whom were years away from MLB. As compared to Leiter, I'll have to nurture these teenagers through the system - particularly the pitchers.

Now the issue becomes where to assign Leiter within the system. I gather that he has been inactive for several months, since his college season and the CWS. So, need to work him in slowly. I chose the Easton [Maryland] Pilots of the short-season A Eastern Shore League. His age is compatible, although his talent appears considerably higher than the average for that level. I didn't want to dump him into AA or AAA at this point. Just get his feet wet, and maybe then head him off to the Arizona Winter League for some more experience? Don't want to tire out that arm. Any thoughts on placement? [I need to look at that excellent flow chart for the minor leagues that was posted on another chain....]

This signing, along with the younger draftees, and a couple of International free agent signings, should begin the process of building (rebuilding) the Oriole organization, from the bottom up. The AAA [Norfolk] and AA [Bowie] teams have been awful, and only sporadic talent at high A, A, and the short season team.

At the Major League level, I've made trades and signed free agents [Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, Scott Kingery] to hold the fort. Promoted Adley Rutschman to join Santander and Hays and Mountcastle and Mullins as the core, while the young players develop. I hastily promoted Grayson Rodriguez for a spot start due to injury, and he has been dominant, after struggling at AA and AAA. Who knew? Same with D.L. Hall, who has been lights out from the bullpen, after an emergency call-up.

I have really been enjoying how OOTP allows for working on the entire organization; not just the major league team. It's not easy. Total respect for those who do this for a job. So many moving parts. Limited funds. Injuries and setbacks. The realism is stunning. I really am learning - the hard way, sometimes!

Pelican · 01-19-2022, 07:19 PM

And the first start for the Easton Pilots is....a win, seven innings, four hits, one earned run, no walks, twelve strikeouts. Threw 92 pitches and 63 were strikes. Also four ground outs and five fly outs. A crowd of 4,603 looking on at Tred Avon Stadium. Pretty cool stuff.

01-07-2022, 02:27 PM	#1
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	Draft Questions I have just completed the 2021 first-year player free agent draft. This was my first experience with scouting and drafting players. A bit easier, I admit, since it involved current players (some of whom I already know well). Still, I had to rely heavily on scouting reports and projections. I’m currently negotiating with my top draft pick (#5 overall), who is categorized as difficult to sign. I gather this reflects, in part, that young stars would sometimes rather not end up with losing teams (the teams drafting first), causing certain players (and their agents) to resist signing, for more than just more money. My Orioles team may not seem too attractive to high draft picks from that standpoint. First question, should I have avoided guys rated as difficult to sign, since I only have a month to negotiate? I realize I might end up with nothing more than a compensation pick next year. So, I made an offer that I thought matched the “slot” figure and the bonus the guy (Jack Leither, by the way) was seeking. I somehow managed to do this within my overall budget. But it appears that Jack is not willing to take my “yes” for an answer. Uh-oh. What are my options here? The negotiation screen does not seem to let me take any further action, I guess until there is a formal response? Also, the way in which the screen shows the offer and bonus has numbers I don’t recognize. Is there any way for me to get to that original negotiation screen? It seems like I am stuck waiting. IRL my owner would be saying WTF and having me pressuring Jack to sign. I don’t like having zero options as this point. Thoughts?

01-10-2022, 10:00 AM	#2
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,630	Once you've submitted the offer you have to stick with it, unlike a pending FA offer. In my experience, the difference other than "impossible" makes it so you can sign a draftee without much of an issue. At the very least, you'll get at least one more shot to sign him.

01-10-2022, 10:46 AM	#3
Bobbyraz49 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 882	When I see a player in the draft, and it states " impossible" I believe it.

01-10-2022, 12:03 PM	#5
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,510	Yeah, as long as he's not "impossible" you should be able to get him if you pay enough. Does he have other options? IOW if he's a college senior not may places to go other than sitting out a year. Unless you have independent leagues? I don't know on that as I don't have ILs. If he has the option to return to school than he has more power. In either case, if you know he's a hard sell, then overpay on the first offer if you can and get the contract signed. How much? Yeah that is the question I don't think the large ask is because they don't want to sign with a weaker team. As IRL there aren't a lot of options, players almost never go from school to the show, so it's more about knowing their worth in the market and using what leverage they have. Again an underclassmen or HS player has quite a bit of leverage. The large ask can be to force teams to not draft them. Think of Mark Prior and his price when the Twins picked 1 and the Cubs 2. However in that case the Twins got Joe Mauer and who's to say they wouldn't have selected him anyway over Prior? But in any case those large amounts are there, like real life, so teams do have to take into account if they can afford to sign the guy. If they can't the may have to be happy taking the best guy available they can sign. But then back to the original point on changing the offer? Not happening, you'll have to wait for the reaction. That goes back to my earlier point of making a "great" offer for a first offer if you really want/need to get the guy under contract.

01-10-2022, 01:04 PM	#6
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	Many thanks to all for the advice. Looks like through dumb luck my generous offer out of the box was the right move. [I was thinking "hey, it ain't MY money; but with a short thirty-day window, there is precious little time to mess around with negotiations...] I'll be patient as to a response. I don't think Leiter would have options other than independent leagues. I have a full compliment, and he would be welcome to chill until the 2022 draft with my Hilton Head Loggerheads in the Atlantic League. I can't understand the logic of that for his career; but I bitterly recall J.D. Drew turning down a generous offer from the the Phillies and saying there was no way he would play for them, supposedly a result of divine guidance. I found that tremendously offensive, as a Phillies fan and a Christian. [First, would God really bother with million-dollar baseball contracts rather than starvation, war, famine; second, why would she hate on the Phillies?!]. He wasted a year playing indy ball, and then went on to a mediocre career. For years he was lustily booed in Philly (usually reserved for the home team players). So I hope I don't end up with that situation. At this point I don't want to "bid against myself", but IRL I would like to meet with Leiter and his agent and emphasize how short his path to MLB could be, particularly if he signs and gets some time in the minors this year, maybe Florida instructional league, impressive Spring Training, who knows?

01-10-2022, 05:15 PM	#7
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,630	I forgot to post this earlier but here is a guy who didn't sign with me. It took him 7 years to record any stats because he toiled away in the Mexican Winter League reserve roster. Thats all he could amount to! http://ootp.biz/lgreports/players/player_17756.html

01-11-2022, 10:51 PM	#8
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	I’m getting a little nervous. Ten days in, and no word from the Leiter camp. All my other draft picks are in the fold, including a couple rated difficult to sign. I have a question about the compensation pick, if he doesn’t sign. I understand that Baltimore would only get the compensation pick if he is drafted in the first three rounds of the next (2022) draft. So, does that mean the pick would not occur until the draft after that (2023). That seems unfair. In this case, if he doesn’t sign now, Leiter would be a sure first-round pick next year, unless he got hurt or performed poorly wherever he ends up playing. It would totally suck to wait another year to draft a compensation pick that would be way below the fifth pick I used for Leiter. I just reread the scouting report on him, and it is glowing. Ugh. Patience.

01-12-2022, 12:18 AM	#9
oldfatbaldguy Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 352	What other people have said about taking "impossible" seriously. I learned that the hard way. In my current save I've got a challenge I hadn't seen before, an owner who sets an absurdly low draft budget and takes it seriously. He'll let me go over it to offer slot, but not more than slot. No dipping into "money for free agents." So if a player's demand is more than slot, I can't draft him.

01-15-2022, 01:54 PM	#11
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	I can certainly live with that compensation pick. He was #5 as memory serves, so a #6 pick in the next draft would be awesome if he does not sign. Now, that would be a supplementary pick, correct? At this point in the season (late July), my Orioles are closing in on the #2 pick, clearly top five. So I could end up drafting twice in the top 6? Still no word on the pending offer. It’s about halfway through the month.

01-19-2022, 12:44 PM	#12
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	Great news! He signed! Locked up for three years at $1,141,000 annually, total of $3,423,000, plus a signing bonus of $4.8 million, for a grand total of $8,223,000 over the life of the contract. No further negotiations. That was my first offer. I realize it's a lot of money, but he is already 21, and can be projected in the middle of the Orioles' rotation in a few years. Plus, there was enough dough left over to sign each of my other draftees, most of whom were years away from MLB. As compared to Leiter, I'll have to nurture these teenagers through the system - particularly the pitchers. Now the issue becomes where to assign Leiter within the system. I gather that he has been inactive for several months, since his college season and the CWS. So, need to work him in slowly. I chose the Easton [Maryland] Pilots of the short-season A Eastern Shore League. His age is compatible, although his talent appears considerably higher than the average for that level. I didn't want to dump him into AA or AAA at this point. Just get his feet wet, and maybe then head him off to the Arizona Winter League for some more experience? Don't want to tire out that arm. Any thoughts on placement? [I need to look at that excellent flow chart for the minor leagues that was posted on another chain....] This signing, along with the younger draftees, and a couple of International free agent signings, should begin the process of building (rebuilding) the Oriole organization, from the bottom up. The AAA [Norfolk] and AA [Bowie] teams have been awful, and only sporadic talent at high A, A, and the short season team. At the Major League level, I've made trades and signed free agents [Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, Scott Kingery] to hold the fort. Promoted Adley Rutschman to join Santander and Hays and Mountcastle and Mullins as the core, while the young players develop. I hastily promoted Grayson Rodriguez for a spot start due to injury, and he has been dominant, after struggling at AA and AAA. Who knew? Same with D.L. Hall, who has been lights out from the bullpen, after an emergency call-up. I have really been enjoying how OOTP allows for working on the entire organization; not just the major league team. It's not easy. Total respect for those who do this for a job. So many moving parts. Limited funds. Injuries and setbacks. The realism is stunning. I really am learning - the hard way, sometimes!

01-19-2022, 07:19 PM	#13
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,789 Blog Entries: 1	And the first start for the Easton Pilots is....a win, seven innings, four hits, one earned run, no walks, twelve strikeouts. Threw 92 pitches and 63 were strikes. Also four ground outs and five fly outs. A crowd of 4,603 looking on at Tred Avon Stadium. Pretty cool stuff.