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OOTP 23 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 10-07-2022, 08:50 PM   #21
luckymann
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Originally Posted by matttb324 View Post
Sorry another question about set up. I have these things unchecked:
*Use real historical transactions
*Players miss seasons according to history
*Retire players according to history

My question is given that those are all unchecked, how different are things like trades and injuries likely to be?
My hope is that they are often quite different. Like maybe still has a tendency to get hurt but that my league won't follow real life terribly exactly. Similarly with how often a player is traded or is drafted for the war, stuff like that.
Am I right to think it will follow similar trends (Mantle's knee is still likely to be injured but not necessarily)?
This is where the recalc v dev engine argument comes into play.

The dev engine will only give you really broad strokes on a player's career in every aspect of his performance including injuries. Recalc tightens that right up with 1-year being almost pointillist in style if you get my drift.

Take Mantle, seeing as you brought him up.

The dev engine gives you a caricature of the Mick that is clearly him if you squint and close one eye. He'll still mash taters, offer solid but not elite D, be relatively speedy. He might generally be rated as FRAGILE and gradually deteriorate and be super prone in the latter part of his career. The path of said career will usually be slightly more linear, with the POT rating a general guide to how good he'll ever be but certainly not gospel. It will rise toward that point, then descend from it as he ages past his peak.

Recalc tightens that caricature up - more with each iteration, so that say 5-year is a photo of the Mick from relatively far away, 3-year is a mid-range image and 1-year is a portrait headshot. It does this by exactly what it says - recalculating his ratings every year using the range of stats you have it set for. The design here is that 1-year recalc as closely replicates his IRL career season-by-season as it can. So in his age-29 season in the game (1961 historically), he should hit the most HR he ever does, while in his age-31 season (1965) he will have a really high injury proneness to reflect his only having played 65 games because of injury (that doesn't necessarily guarantee he'll miss time with injury that season, only heightens the likelihood exponentially). And so on from season to season.

Does that explain it OK?

Now, with regard to those other settings.

I'm no coder but I am fairly sure OOTP works "regressively". By which I mean, its "control group" is one in which the historical season is exactly replicated - transactions, lineups, injuries - and that the stats generated need to be as close to the IRL as possible (they tinker with the ratings until this is achieved). Then, with every option NOT selected by the player, the game moves ever further away from real to simulated.

So if you play a season with all transactions, lineups, injuries ON using 1-year recalc then it should come out incredibly close to the historical being simulated. But if you turn one or some or all of them OFF the alternate timeline will stray further from the actual one with each toggle.

So, if you turn lineups / trans / injuries OFF but leave the miss seasons and retire as per history ON, Ted Williams will come into the game as a rook in 1939, play until 1942 then disappear for '43 thru '45 then come back in '46 and retire at the end of 1960. With all the settings OFF, he'll play all the way through and retire when the game sees fit for him to do so.

Or, in very rare cases, he might suffer a career-ending injury well before that.

By turning off each of the options, by increasing the period of recalc or doing away with it entirely and using just the dev engine - what you are actually doing is increasing the random factor at both the individual and collective level. Because, with the LTMs deciding the statistical output each in-game season, nowhere is The Butterfly Effect more prevalent than in OOTP.

The more you understand about this game and how it works and what it has to contend with, the more you will see how it is one of the most stunning achievements in all of gaming. Ever.

In my Bucs save, despite my having integrated the league in 1909 and altered the stat totals used to accommodate the NeLers now in the player pool, despite my having used neither historical transactions, lineups, injuries, missed seasons nor retirements, despite my having used 5-year recalc rather than 1- or 3-year - Ty Cobb finished his career with 4125 hits. That's just 64 (1.5%) off his IRL mark.

Ridiculous.
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Last edited by luckymann; 10-07-2022 at 08:54 PM.
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Old 10-07-2022, 10:41 PM   #22
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Awesome, that was a really great explanation. Thank you for taking the time to put all that down, makes sense now.
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Old 10-07-2022, 11:21 PM   #23
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Awesome, that was a really great explanation. Thank you for taking the time to put all that down, makes sense now.
Cool! Glad it helped.

This bit needs some clarification.

So, if you turn lineups / trans / injuries OFF but leave the miss seasons and retire as per history ON, Ted Williams will come into the game as a rook in 1939, play until 1942 then disappear for '43 thru '45 then come back in '46 and retire at the end of 1960. With all the settings OFF, he'll play all the way through and retire when the game sees fit for him to do so.


If you leave all these settings ON, Ted will only start the games he started historically (although he will be used as a PH in certain games in which he didn't appear IRL). He will also miss time if he did so IRL and, were he traded, would go to the new team on the exact day he did in actuality (obviously, for Ted, this did not happen). By having them on, certain elements of the game are disabled.

Here's the link to the manual page that describes this.
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Old 10-10-2022, 09:46 PM   #24
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Awards in Dead Ball Era?

I know that the MVP, Rookie of the Year and so on were not given in 1903 but is there a way to make my fictional league give those out?
I do have the award names checked on the options tab but the season is in December now and it doesn't look like they are given?
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Old 10-10-2022, 10:03 PM   #25
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I think I messed up the draft (pls help)

When I got to December 15, it seems like the game did draft players but the team order is mixed up.
The correct order is on the Draft Rules and Draft Order page with Worcester going first, Southside last
but it seems to have drafted in a different order:


Also, it doesn't seem like the drafted players joined those teams either.
Any help would be greatly appreciated!
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Old 10-10-2022, 11:11 PM   #26
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I think you'll find that the Draft Order now being displayed is for next year? The problem here is there were no previous year's standings for the order to be derived from so it just created a random one for the one just held.

And re the players not turning up on their correct teams - have you got Advance Signing Bonus / Slot ON? If so, that means - like IRL - the clubs have to actually sign the players they draft rather than them just automatically go onto their rosters. Personally, almost entirely because I don't understand slot etc, I've never enabled it. I guess I should at some stage to make my saves entirely lifelike, but I haven't got around to it.
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Old 10-10-2022, 11:13 PM   #27
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I know that the MVP, Rookie of the Year and so on were not given in 1903 but is there a way to make my fictional league give those out?
I do have the award names checked on the options tab but the season is in December now and it doesn't look like they are given?
That is odd. Can you please screenshot that tab? Are you sure you've also checked them on (the boxes all the way to the left)?

It should look similar to this:

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Last edited by luckymann; 10-10-2022 at 11:15 PM.
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Old 10-11-2022, 08:46 AM   #28
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So are you saying that for the draft held in December 1903 that they would be using the standings from the 1901 season?
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Old 10-11-2022, 08:51 AM   #29
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So are you saying that for the draft held in December 1903 that they would be using the standings from the 1901 season?
No - didn't your save only start in 1903?
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Old 10-11-2022, 10:49 AM   #30
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Yes, sorry it started with the 1903 season in April. The 1903 season is now finished and it is Dec 1903. But instead of using the standings for 1903, it used a different order. It has the correct order on the Draft Rules and Draft Order page (Worcester first then Cleveland...) but in the actual draft log, it has a different order with New Orleans going first and picking Ed Walks, Manhattan going second and picking Hooks Wiltsie and so on...

Sorry I'm so confused!
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:04 AM   #31
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Oh and here is the award screenshot. Sorry for all the questions!


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Old 10-11-2022, 12:29 PM   #32
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That is odd. Can you please screenshot that tab? Are you sure you've also checked them on (the boxes all the way to the left)?

It should look similar to this:

Interesting names for your awards. I like them.
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Old 10-11-2022, 03:24 PM   #33
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By the way, I noticed that the original draft where I released all players from their original teams and held the initial draft, that is also called the 1903 Draft in the game? I wonder if that could have something to do with it?
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Old 10-11-2022, 05:49 PM   #34
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Yes, sorry it started with the 1903 season in April. The 1903 season is now finished and it is Dec 1903. But instead of using the standings for 1903, it used a different order. It has the correct order on the Draft Rules and Draft Order page (Worcester first then Cleveland...) but in the actual draft log, it has a different order with New Orleans going first and picking Ed Walks, Manhattan going second and picking Hooks Wiltsie and so on...

Sorry I'm so confused!
Yes, you see because you started in 1903 the game doesn't see 1902 and before as being relevant or even existing in a baseball context, so it has simply chosen a random order for that 1903 Draft. Check that one in there showing now, which is for the 1904 Draft. Is it correct with regard to the reverse order of your 1903 standings?
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Old 10-11-2022, 07:03 PM   #35
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Yes, you're right, except now I'm worried that when it gets to December 1904 and does that draft that it will use these standings instead of the ones for the 1904 season. In other words, that it will lag by a year?




This was the correct reversed-order standings for the 1903 season. Worcester was worst, then Cleveland and so on...
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Old 10-11-2022, 07:19 PM   #36
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Yes, you're right, except now I'm worried that when it gets to December 1904 and does that draft that it will use these standings instead of the ones for the 1904 season. In other words, that it will lag by a year?




This was the correct reversed-order standings for the 1903 season. Worcester was worst, then Cleveland and so on...
Yes, I believe it will use the 1903 standings for the 1904 Draft. Isn't that how it works IRL with the Draft being in July? That's how I've always had it set.
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Old 10-11-2022, 08:22 PM   #37
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Oh maybe thats the problem...yhe draft is automatically set for december not july. Maybe i change that somehow.
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Old 10-11-2022, 10:19 PM   #38
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Oh maybe thats the problem...yhe draft is automatically set for december not july. Maybe i change that somehow.
Not sure you're looking at this the right way?

In real life, the Draft Order is - or, at least, was before the introduction of the Lottery - based on the standings from the previous year. Now, admittedly, that is because the IRL Draft is held in July rather than December. But the policy holds the same, namely that for the Draft being held in 1904 the standings from the 1903 season should be applied, not the 1904 season.

Now, if you want to change the Draft because this extra delay is offputting to you, then fair enough, but the same standings will be used, IE those from the previous complete season. It might not feel like the time lag is there because you are bringing the Draft forward by 6 months, but it is still there.

And if you do want to change the Draft date, that is straightforward - jut go to the Rules tab and change it. However, make sure by moving it forward you aren't putting your reveal date behind the present date at that time.
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Old 10-12-2022, 07:23 AM   #39
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Right, thank you. This got a bit complicated but the original issue is that the draft was held in December 1903 after the 1903 season but the game did not use the 1903 Standings, but instead used some other standings (maybe 1902 before I started, I'm not sure). Anyway, it's a bit of a muddle at this point but I am going to save a backup right before the draft that I have scheduled for June 1904 and make sure it uses the 1903 standings. I believe it will this time because that is what's in the Draft Order tab. Thank you for your help!
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Old 10-12-2022, 08:57 AM   #40
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Right, thank you. This got a bit complicated but the original issue is that the draft was held in December 1903 after the 1903 season but the game did not use the 1903 Standings, but instead used some other standings (maybe 1902 before I started, I'm not sure). Anyway, it's a bit of a muddle at this point but I am going to save a backup right before the draft that I have scheduled for June 1904 and make sure it uses the 1903 standings. I believe it will this time because that is what's in the Draft Order tab. Thank you for your help!
Yep, that's the way. League's looking good - keep those updates coming my friend!
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