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OOTP 23 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 10-31-2022, 10:52 PM   #1
Pelican
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Historical Sims in Progress

I'm one of those players who can't stick to one season for too long. Instead, I keep getting new ideas about past years. My usual approach is to look at history and ask the question how things could have changed, if.... That "if" can be "if there were no color bar" [1938]; or "if the Federal League had signed more players" [1914]; or "if the Philly A's had invested money in the team, and stayed in Philadelphia" [1952]; or "had the Phillies made better personnel decisions" [1960 and 1971]. Those last three seasons are also, respectively, the year I was born, the year of my first baseball game, and the year Vets' Stadium opened.

In more recent years [2021 and 2022 replays], the "what if" revolves around reducing the impact of money (or lack thereof; or the refusal to spend) on team rosters and talent and organizations. In those years I either impose a hard salary cap, level up the funds available to teams like the Pirates, Oakland, Kansas City, or both. The idea is to approach something more like parity. Plus expansion to Charlotte and Buffalo. The Rays finally give up and move to Montreal and become the Moose. The Pirates bolt for New Orleans as the Buccaneers. And the Athletics move again, to their fourth city, San Jose, to play in Pied Piper Stadium.

1914 is a work in progress. I've only progressed a few games into the season. After some research, reading a number of books on the Federal League, I was aware of a number of top players who nearly signed (or even signed and reneged) with Federal League teams. I've added a dozen or so guys to Federal League rosters. For example, slugger Gavvy Cravath joined several of his Phillies teammates on the Baltimore Terrapins. The Brooklyn Tip-Tops signed Jim Thorpe away from the Giants. Johnny Evers and the aging Frank Chance have joined Joe Tinker with the Chicago Whales. Burt Shotton left the Browns for the Kansas City Packers. Zack Wheat left Brooklyn for the Packers. Pol Perritt left the Cardinals for the Packers. Frank "Wildfire" Schulte left the Cubs for the Pittsburgh Rebels. Ed Konechty joined the Rebels from the Cardinals. Slugger Vic Saier bolted the Cubs for the St. Louis Terriers. Plus, the most recent defection, Shoeless Joe Jackson joins the Buffalo Blues from the New York baseball Giants. And in the most momentus, a young lefty hurler and sometimes outfielder walked across the street from the Baltimore Orioles park to the new Federal League grounds and signed a contract with the Terrapins. His name: George Herman Ruth.

More to come on 1938, 1952, 1960, and 1971 projects.

Plus the 1884 Union Association, featuring the Wilmington Quicksteps.
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Old 11-08-2022, 01:02 PM   #2
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1938 finds the nation emerging from the worst of the Depression. In Philadelphia, my Grandfather (presumably with a number of wealthy investors) has acquired the Phillies. He (and his investors) has (have) decided to upgrade the Baker Bowl, rather than abandon the venerable ballyard for Shibe Park (as the IRL Phillies did in mid-year 1938). Better yet, they have persuaded the City of Philadelphia to grant them an easement to extend the RF wall back about thirty feet, using the sidewalk on the west side of Broad Street. To accommodate the stadium wall blocking the sidewalk, clever engineers built a tunnel under the field. (Not so unusual for this spot, as several railroad tunnels run under the field area already, and the Pennsylvania Railroad's North Philly Station is directly across the street.) That means that the new dimensions in RF are: 311 feet down the line; 338 feet to RF; and 374 to RCF. The ugly forty-foot fence and its Lifebuoy sign ("The Phillies Use Lifebuoy Soap" [and still stink]) has been torn down, replaced by a more modest 25-foot barrier. The new OOTP ballpark HR factor for LHB is now 1.035, down from 1.367 with the old dimensions of 280/300/325. Chuck Klein is not happy about this.

The other major change for MLB in 1938 is the end of the color line. All Negro League players became free agents. The AI has been slow to sign those players, perhaps because the ratings are artificially low for many stars. The Phillies struck early, signing Josh Gibson and Buck Leonardfrom the Homestead Grays. Looking to the future, Philly signed 21-year-old SS Ted Strong from the and 2B Willard Brown (22) from the Kansas City Monarchs,. (Unlike IRL, the Negro League teams are compensated for these players, and of course the Phillies have to negotiate a contract with the players involved.). For experience and depth, the Phils signed Roy Parnell (34) from the Philly Stars and OF Turkey Stearnes (37) from the Chicago American Giants. Later, during the season, the Phils promoted hard-throwing youngsters George Walker and Roy Welmaker (each formerly of the Homestead Grays) to their bullpen.

The great Oscar Charleston was signed as hitting coach, and the recently-retired Rabbit Maranville as bench coach, for Manager Chuckles Barnstorm.

All throughout the Spring, and into the start of the season, the Phils negotiated with representative of the great Satchell Paige, then 31 years of age, and at the top of his ability. Paige held out for a multi-year contract, and did not sign until he was guaranteed three years at $37,500 a year, the top salary in all of MLB. Satchell started slowly, but has rounded out at 5-4 in 11 starts, including most recently a win at Forbes Field against the league-leading Pittsburgh Pirates.

Another option for MLB teams in this era was raiding talent (for compensation) from the Pacific Coast League. On May 3, the Phils purchased the contract of 21-year-old Dominick DiMaggio from the San Francisco Seals, for whom he had hit .306/.369/.431 the year before, while playing RF. In 25 games at AAA, Dom is at .303/.352/.485 for the Wilmington Blue Sox.

And the Phils signed free agent Jumbo Brown, who quickly became their closer. Brown, aptly named at 6'4" and 295 pounds, had been released by the New York baseball Giants.

Through mid-June, the revamped Phillies are holding their own, at 27-27, fourth place, nine and a half games behind the league-leading Pirates. The New York baseball Giants have won eight games in a row, to close within three games of Pittsburgh. Arky Vaughn of the Pirates leads the league at .399 and RBI at 41. Mel Ott leads in home runs with 10.

Over in the American League, the Yankees at 34-21 hold a three-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers. Wally Moses of the A’s leads in hitting at .374. Hank Greenburg leads in HR with 17 and RBI with 62 (in 56 games!).
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Old 11-08-2022, 01:17 PM   #3
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:14 PM   #4
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1971 Season

1971
The Phillies have been busy, trying to build a contender through trades and free agent signings, as the farm system develops. Why not try to be competitive right away, in the new Stadium, anticipating a huge increase in revenue? Let the wheeling and dealing begin!

  • Traded Roger Freed to the Pirates for Mudcat Grant. Roberto Clemente was out a month, and Freed played well in his absence, hitting over .300. Grant did not perform well in the closer role, and on July 4 was traded to the Rangers for Dave Nelson, the speedy infielder, who has hit well and run wild.
  • The perpetual phenom Joe Lis (OF who was .324/36/107 with the Santa Rosa Dancing Bears in the PCL in 1970) for Curt Blefary, the 1965 AL ROY with Baltimore. Lis has hit .250 as a part-time OF for the Yanks. Blefary did not hit at all for Philadelphia, and was flipped back to the Yanks for Lindy McDaniel. Blefary has since played for the Royals, Mets, White Sox, and now the Angels, currently at .225. McDaniel was flipped to the Orioles (and is now 3-1 with 10 saves and a 2.70 ERA) for Pete Richert (1-2 and 2.84 ERA in 50 innings over 44 games as a valuable lefty out of the Phils' pen).
  • Traded Greg Goosen (3B now .277/.356/.491 for KC) to reacquire 1B Ron Allen (.269/.359/.388) as PH and backup 1B to Greg Luzinski.
  • In an early version of a trade that would be made before the 1972 season, acquired LHP Steve Carlton [10-9, 2.82] from St. Louis, for Johnny Briggs [.296/.389/.461 with 19 HR and 63 RBI] and Woody Fryman [10-7, 3.01].
  • Traded LHP Ken Reynolds [4-4, 1.54] to the ever-accommodating Pirates for Kent Tekulve [1-0, 3.60].
  • RF Ron Stone, fresh off a .262/.338/.358 year in Philly with 3 HR and 39 RBI in 123 games, goes to the Yanks for veteran C Jake Gibbs. Gibbs does not hit, and is traded to the Giants in June for RHP Jim Barr, who will be turned into a SP at AAA Santa Rosa.
  • Rico Carty was signed as a free agent. Historically, he missed the entire 1971 Season, after having hit .366 with 25 HR and 101 RBI for Atlanta in 1970. After a lackluster month of April, Carty was exchanged even up for Dick Allen, from LA. Carty is now hitting.288/.362/.461 for the Dodgers, with 17 HR and 69 RBI. Allen is .285/.364/.401 with the Phils.
  • Bobby Tolan, late of the Reds, was in the same category as Carty. He sustained a serious injury that kept him from playing in 1971. Since I've disabled historical injuries, he is available as a free agent. Tolan has been the everyday CF and is hitting .292/.362/.428, with 35 SB.
  • Traded Lloyd Hutchinson to LA for Davey Lopes. Neither player worked out well in the Majors, and each is raking at AAA.
  • The irrepressible Oscar Gamble (21), was traded to the Braves for SP Jim Nash and SS Zorro Versalles. Gamble hit well for Atlanta, but ws traded to the Reds. Nash was exchanged to the Orioles, in the deal that brought C Elrod Hendricks to the Phillies.
  • Ruben Amaro Sr. retired, and was signed as bench coach.
  • Bobby Pfeil to LA for Manny Mota. Pfeil is raking at AAA. Mota has been a valuable PH and occasional starter, at age 33, hitting .306.
  • With Greg Luzinski putting up wild numbers in AAA, Deron Johnson was traded to the NYM for SP Jim McAndrew, who has gone 9-6 with a 2.34 ERA for the Phillies.
  • On May 16, a multi-player deal with the Angels. Phils get RP Lloyd Allen [1.72 ERA in 17 games] and 2B Billy Parker [.305/.405/.594 at AAA], for RHP Erskine Thompson, LHP Joe Hoerner, and RHP Roy Thomas.
  • SP Barry Lersch was traded to Seattle for utility man Hank McGraw (Tug's brother). Lersch is 5-7 with a 3.55 ERA for the Pilots (back in Seattle after a year in Milwaukee). McGraw is .344/.429/.549 in 41 games at AAA.
  • On June 6, two future faces of the franchise were gone. Larry Hisle, hitting .221/.287/.359 in 38 games, was traded to the Mets for Tug McGraw, who has gone 2-2 with nine saves and an ERA of 2.53 as the Phillies' closer. Hisle is back in the minors after a run of .134/.214/.210 at Minnesota. Don Money was traded to the Native Americans along with Bill Sudakis for Graig Nettles. Money has improved to .310/.360/.533 with 11 HR and 53 RBI in 73 games for the Twins, after .236/.296/.322 in 49 games for Philadelphia. Nettles has excelled at .331/.381/.508 for the Phillies, with a total for the year of 19 HR and 84 RBI. Of course, the Phils have Mike Schmidt banging on the door at 3B.
  • And also on June 6, the Phils exchanged minor league phenom LF Scott Reid for veteran 2B Cesar Tovar of the Twins. Like Tolan, Carlton, McGraw, Tovar would end up with the Phils IRL, considerably later in his career. Reid has slugged .315 with 3 HR and 20 RBI in 37 games for the Twins. Tovar has been the everyday 2B at .276/.318/.372 for the Phillies, with 20 total SB and 77 total RS in 125 games.
  • In a reversal of using my knowledge of future stats to obtain a player (while risking TCR would not produce the same outcome as IRL), traded future star Andre Thornton to the Cards for C Bob Stinson. Thornton is slugging .273 with 18 HR and 35 RBI at AAA. He has Briggs blocking him in St. Louis. Stinson has been a reliable backstop, hitting .282/.391/.397 in forty games with the Phillies. Remember, this is a team that struggled with light-hitting Mike Ryan and Clay Dalrymple behind the plate.
  • Greg Luzinski started the season still at AA Reading; but was promoted to AAA after just four games. In 21 glorious games at Santa Rosa, he hit 7 HR with splits of .372/.437/.692. At 20 years of age, he was in the major leagues. As the regular 1B over 96 games, he has swatted 20 HR with 68 RBI, with NL splits of .338/.394/.557. He is the runaway choice for ROY in the NL.
  • On the eve of the trade deadline, dealt hard-throwing but wild SP Wayne Twitchell to the Motor City Kitties for LHP Mickey Lolich. Twitch is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in 5 games for Detroit. Lolich is 3-1 and 2.21 in five games for Philadelphia. Presumably the AI did this deal because Detroit is rebuilding, and Twitchell is seven years younger. It puts the Phils in "win now" posture.
  • While waiting for Elrod Hendricks to clear waivers, Barney Dickey was called up as emergency catcher from Reading [.286/.389/.457]. In his first game, he hit for the cycle. He had to be sent back down, but is sure to be back, when rosters expand on September 1.

With all of these changes, the Phils, at 64-70, are recovering from a slow start, but stand fifth in the NL East, ahead of the Montreal Moose; but just behind Atlanta and Cincinnati. While 22 games behind the Pirates, the Phils are only seven out in the Wild Card, with Western Division St. Louis also ahead of them. The rotation has been dominant lately, with Chris Short at 8-9 and 2.73, and Rick Wise at 10-8 and 4.04, behind Lolich, Carlton, and McAndrew. The Tugger has solidified the Bullpen, with setup from Lloyd Allen and Joe Grzenda. Maybe all of that dealing was worth it?

I can't wait for September 1 to expand the roster. Mike Schmidt is hitting .344/.500/.680 at AAA with 10 HR in 36 games, with 40 RBI. He has 39 HR and 120 RBI across A, AA, and AAA. He is 21. He is clearly ready. Jerry Martin from Columbia, South Carolina has hit .377/.441/.611 with 13 HR and 34 SB in 67 games since being promoted to AAA. Jim Barr has blossomed as a SP at AAA, going 8-2 with an ERA of 3.54 in a hitters' league. Billy Parker has hit 21 HR in 83 games at AAA, with a .305/.405/.594 split at 2B. Along with Hank McGraw, they figure to be promoted on September 1 and to see playing time. SP Pat Bayless and Michael Coble are both 9-4 at AAA Santa Rosa. Fireballing Lowell Palmer is 8-4 with a 2.83 ERA. The future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.
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Last edited by Pelican; 11-26-2022 at 11:01 PM.
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Old 12-18-2022, 11:17 PM   #5
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Just spend over an hour writing an update on the 1971 Season, now in mid-September. When I finished and attempted to post it, I got the sign-on screen. Apparently my sign-on timed out, even though I have learned to check the box for stay signed in. After I signed in, my entire post was lost. Like a dumbass, I did not simply copy it to my clipboard, just in case. In the future I am going to have to draft in Word and then transfer.

But the bigger issue is, how can I be kicked off, with no warning, when I have signed in, and I am typing away??This timing out problem has happened before, and I thought I had prevented it by checking “remember me” in order to stay signed in. I can understand the logic of timing out posters who are inactive, but how could it ignore all of those keystrokes.

Busy time, so I don’t know when I will be able to post an update. Too bad, it’s a thrilling pennant race[s] and my Phillies project has been an improvement over the wretched IRL 1971 group, though not going to sneak into the Wild Card. More later.
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