Anybody else noticing wacky HR numbers using standard game?

[SkipBranham]

So I'm in what I thought was going to be my long term save, I've gotten 37 games into my first season and I've noticed some wild homer stats. I looked at the leader board and this is what it looks like.

Ohtani - 39 GP - 21 HR's (Projected 89 HR's)
Schwarber - 38 GP - 16 HR's (Projected 68 HR's)
Ozuna - 36 GP - 13 HR's. (Projected 59 HR's)

I'm confused. This is a standard game using the default league totals from 2023 and the modifiers. (The homerun modifier is set at like .904 I believe.) Looking at editor stats it seems like Ohtani is "expected" to hit 46 homers given his editor ratings and I'm guessing the corresponding league totals and modifiers.

I'm wondering if these guys have just gotten off to an incredibly hot start or if something is off here? Anybody got any ideas or thoughts? I've been playing OOTP since 2018 and I've always noticed that HR's run kinda high, but this seems really high.

Anything fellas?

*Edit*
So looking at the rest of the league's home run numbers it seems like everybody else is on pace to his more in line with "normal" home run totals. Is it possible that the distribution of the homers is messed up a bit? For example, The league's top power hitters (Ohtani, Shwarber, Ozuna) just getting more than the lion's share of the nearly 5700 homers that are programmed to be produced?

*Edit #2*

Furthermore, looking back at the preseason predictions, everything seemed to be in line. Ohtani was predicted to hit for an average of .251 with 51 homers. That seems plausible to me. Perhaps he is just crazy on fire at the moment?

[Sweed]

My experience is based on v24. I have 25 but play day to day so am only in my first spring training.

I played three seasons in v24 and saw something similar in two of those seasons. Both times these type of players ended up in the normal range.
I put it down as no different than a guy I expected 40-50 HR's going into mid-May with only 2. He'd then hit the kind of streak you are seeing, but it wasn't at the beginning of the season so it didn't stick out. Instead it just caught him up to the type of performance I would expect. IOW, dice rolls and randomness seemed to be the cause in my game.

You mentioning the rest of the league is performing at a normal rate suggests you will see the same type of thing I have seen. However, it is still possible one of those guys ends up with an outlier season. That in my opinion is absolutely ok.

[SkipBranham]

Originally Posted by Sweed

My experience is based on v24. I have 25 but play day to day so am only in my first spring training.

I played three seasons in v24 and saw something similar in two of those seasons. Both times these type of players ended up in the normal range.
I put it down as no different than a guy I expected 40-50 HR's going into mid-May with only 2. He'd then hit the kind of streak you are seeing, but it wasn't at the beginning of the season so it didn't stick out. Instead it just caught him up to the type of performance I would expect. IOW, dice rolls and randomness seemed to be the cause in my game.

You mentioning the rest of the league is performing at a normal rate suggests you will see the same type of thing I have seen. However, it is still possible one of those guys ends up with an outlier season. That in my opinion is absolutely ok.

Thanks Sweed, I thought that might be the case. I figured the game may compensate down the line to even things out but I wasn't sure.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by SkipBranham

Thanks Sweed, I thought that might be the case. I figured the game may compensate down the line to even things out but I wasn't sure.

No, the game doesn’t “compensate”. You’re seeing random anomalies that tend to get washed out over the course of a full season. If Ohtani has the stats to hit 40 HRs, he’ll probably wind up hitting like 50 in your save because of that big start.

This happens in really life too. The one that immediately sprung to mind for me was Mark McGwire his rookie year (1987), where he opened the season in a platoon with Rob Nelson but took over the full time job and went absolutely insane in May. He had 19 HRs in about 40 games by the end of that month and finished with 49.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by SkipBranham

Thanks Sweed, I thought that might be the case. I figured the game may compensate down the line to even things out but I wasn't sure.

I wouldn't say OOTP "compensates", rather the dice rolls and probabilities even out naturally through random chance.

And Syd chimed in as I wrote my post.

[FantasyDrafter]

This is pre-patch. In the 2028 season Lazaro Montes was a 23yo 40 contact (298 in editor), 75 power (490 in editor) player in AAA. I was just simming paying attention to the MLB team, but kept getting emails about all the HRs he was hitting. I could have brought him up but I kept him down because he was having an historic season.

All said and done in 2028 he finished with a .276 avg in 144 games. 60 singles, 18 doubles, 84 HR. 188 RBI. 232 Ks.The Schwarber dream season.

I developed him from the beginning with nothing in avoid Ks, nothing in defense, nothing in baserunning. Max BABIP, Power, Eye. Half bar gap.

I am not saying there is anything wrong, he had 60 HR the year before with a much lower BA between AA and AAA. But I think this qualifies as wacky HRs for most.

[SkipBranham]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

No, the game doesn’t “compensate”. You’re seeing random anomalies that tend to get washed out over the course of a full season. If Ohtani has the stats to hit 40 HRs, he’ll probably wind up hitting like 50 in your save because of that big start.

This happens in really life too. The one that immediately sprung to mind for me was Mark McGwire his rookie year (1987), where he opened the season in a platoon with Rob Nelson but took over the full time job and went absolutely insane in May. He had 19 HRs in about 40 games by the end of that month and finished with 49.

Understood. I'm still betting on Ohtani to hit around 60 homers.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by SkipBranham

Understood. I'm still betting on Ohtani to hit around 60 homers.

If he has the talent level to hit 40, that wouldn’t be far off…