Nine Years of 100-win seasons - ZERO World Championships

[hefalumps]

I have been playing an alternate universe Browns/Orioles franchise since 1950 - I started this league in OOTP14 and have imported it through every version through 24 - I just finished the 2001 season.

From 1950 through 1980 (which I played with OOTP14 through OOTP19), we won 10 World Series and made the postseason 20 times.

Then the 80s hit. Still on OOTP 19, my team crashed and burned, underperforming in '81 and suffering a full-on tear down in '82, finishing dead last. We bounced back and made the playoffs in '83 and '84, but we wouldn't win a single championship in the '80s. In fact, we didn't return to the playoffs until 1992 while playing OOTP 22.

Ahead of 1993, we positioned ourselves as a dynasty. From 1993-2001, we reeled off nine straight 100-win seasons, twice winning 110 games. We made the playoffs every year, but only made it to three World Series. And each of those World Series we lost. The first one was in heartbreaking fashion, losing Game 7 at home in extras after being up in the series 3-2. The other two we just got blown out by the NL team.

My dynasty is built for the long haul. Over the course of the season, these guys are awesome - league leaders in stats, lots of awards at the end of the season, etc.. But without fail, every year come October, players just turn into big fat duds who can't perform in the clutch. Occasionally we have a key injury, but the last two seasons we were completely healthy - just half our team forgot how to hit or pitch. Two guys who had 100+ RBI during the season suddenly combined to hit .140 over the LDS and LCS combined.

I get it - that's baseball. Rarely does the best team win the World Series, especially once divisional play and wild cards get into the mix. But It's been over 20 in-game years and five versions of OOTP since I won a World Championship. So over five real-life years.

If you've stayed with me this far, thanks for listening. I'm curious - any tips on what I can do? How I can find players who won't fold in October? Without fail, no matter who's on the team, we always seem to surge in late August/early September and then once October rolls around everyone goes cold.

If it matters, I play out every game.

I'm getting ready to start another offseason - trying to win a 10th straight AL East title - wish me luck!

[Brad K]

"I get it - that's baseball."

The answer.

"If it matters, I play out every game."

Unless you suddenly turn into a bad manager under post season pressure.

Actually I'm not convinced of this but neither will I dismiss it. If someone in authority said that when you have a really good team OOTP visits some misfortune on it, I'd believe it.

[hefalumps]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Unless you suddenly turn into a bad manager under post season pressure.

Actually I'm not convinced of this but neither will I dismiss it. If someone in authority said that when you have a really good team OOTP visits some misfortune on it, I'd believe it.

I don't think that I do, but it sure feels like my decisions in the close games are always wrong. Case in point - Game 7 of the most recent ALCS. Tony Saunders throws a no-hitter in Game 6 to even the series 3-3 and force Game 7, and I've got Randy Johnson on the mound who shutout the Twins his last time out. We stake him to an early 3-0 lead but stop scoring after the first, and meanwhile the Twins pelt Randy with a solo homer here, a solo homer there, etc.

Going into the 9th we have a 4-3 lead and Randy's pitch count is decent. He gets the first out and is facing lefty Fred McGriff, who had one of the earlier solo homers but hadn't done anything else. My right-handed closer is ready, but he hasn't been particularly effective in the postseason after being lights out in August and September. So I opt to let Randy face McGriff - boom - game tying solo homer. We fail to score in the bottom of the 9th, some scrub off the Twins bench pinch hits and drives in a run with a single, we get skunked in the 10th and that's that.

Had another one in Game 7 of the World Series a few years back where I admittedly probably left Randy in too long but he'd been throwing a shutout and I couldn't trust my bullpen. His pitch count was high but we had a slim lead in the 9th. I left him face slap-hitting Shawon Dunston who had been on our team a couple of years before, and he broke our hearts with a go-ahead bomb to give the Cardinals the lead and eventual win. We had been up 3-2 in that series with Game 6 and 7 at home. Got blown out in Game 6 and couldn't score a run in Game 7.

So I've definitely had some decisions I've second guessed, but given what I knew in the moment, I don't feel like they were "wrong". I also remember playing in a different save many versions ago where we were down three runs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 of the World Series and Manny Ramirez hit a walk-off grand slam to win it - so the "comeback code" can definitely go both ways. Just been a long time since I felt like it was on my side!

[Humboldt KA]

Originally Posted by hefalumps

I don't think that I do, but it sure feels like my decisions in the close games are always wrong. Case in point - Game 7 of the most recent ALCS. Tony Saunders throws a no-hitter in Game 6 to even the series 3-3 and force Game 7, and I've got Randy Johnson on the mound who shutout the Twins his last time out. We stake him to an early 3-0 lead but stop scoring after the first, and meanwhile the Twins pelt Randy with a solo homer here, a solo homer there, etc.

Going into the 9th we have a 4-3 lead and Randy's pitch count is decent. He gets the first out and is facing lefty Fred McGriff, who had one of the earlier solo homers but hadn't done anything else. My right-handed closer is ready, but he hasn't been particularly effective in the postseason after being lights out in August and September. So I opt to let Randy face McGriff - boom - game tying solo homer. We fail to score in the bottom of the 9th, some scrub off the Twins bench pinch hits and drives in a run with a single, we get skunked in the 10th and that's that.

Had another one in Game 7 of the World Series a few years back where I admittedly probably left Randy in too long but he'd been throwing a shutout and I couldn't trust my bullpen. His pitch count was high but we had a slim lead in the 9th. I left him face slap-hitting Shawon Dunston who had been on our team a couple of years before, and he broke our hearts with a go-ahead bomb to give the Cardinals the lead and eventual win. We had been up 3-2 in that series with Game 6 and 7 at home. Got blown out in Game 6 and couldn't score a run in Game 7.

So I've definitely had some decisions I've second guessed, but given what I knew in the moment, I don't feel like they were "wrong". I also remember playing in a different save many versions ago where we were down three runs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 of the World Series and Manny Ramirez hit a walk-off grand slam to win it - so the "comeback code" can definitely go both ways. Just been a long time since I felt like it was on my side!

I'm never sure I'm managing right. I sometimes leave a starter in after 4 adverse events--or 3 and a tough out up--b/c "just one out will let me pinch hit without wasting a reliver." Usually goes wrong.

I almost never walk intentionally--I keep thinking the next batter isn't that much worse.

I steal only with pitcher GB or NEU and hold and catcher arm < 110. Even with that I get no better than 50% with 100 steal. I often use run & hit rather than steal but can't tell whether it matters.

Advice welcome.

Lineup question: How bad is a -16 team ZR after ~90 games when the next worst in the majors is about -8? I do it because Lefty O'Doul, Gavvy Cravath (awful fielders), Frankie Frisch (40), and Jim Bottomley (43)* are great hitters--and I do lead the majors in runs--but I can't tell if it's worth it.

*Got him as a FA by paying the highest salary in the majors. If his defense isn't costing too much, he at least is worth it.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by hefalumps

I don't think that I do, but it sure feels like my decisions in the close games are always wrong.

I seriously doubt you are managing much differently in the post season. I posted that suggestion to tease you.

I've been managing some games lately after years of not doing so. And I've hit a streak where it feels like my decisions are often wrong. Some manager said something to the effect that he makes his best decisions when his players play well.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Humboldt KA

I'm never sure I'm managing right. I sometimes leave a starter in after 4 adverse events--or 3 and a tough out up--b/c "just one out will let me pinch hit without wasting a reliver." Usually goes wrong.

The reliever could have gotten roughed up too. There's no way of knowing.

The devs say it's all random except for admitting giving a nudge to hot streaks and cold streaks - when the indicator appears - so does that happen during individual games too? Are players ratings constantly under adjustment? But they say the effect is too small to notice. Whhhaat?

Anyway, if it's all random then a decision to pull a pitcher should be made on his ratings and fatigue, the status of the pen, and whether you believe is saving a pitcher for tomorrow.

Yet AI makes decisions as a RL manager would, pulling pitchers who are getting beaten up even if they're not tired. There's a setting for how fast AI mangers pull pitchers which I guess would be based on negative events in the game.

Anyway, to address one other thing, there is no such thing as a tough out. If you're basing that on the animation. don't. If you're basing that on the play by play, don't. The game doesn't produce 400 foot fly ball outs, close double plays, or 100 mph exit velocities. It produces characterless hits and outs and the play by play is all flavor.

[AZTarHeel]

Totally feel your pain. Just posted something about how frustrated I am when my team underwhelms year after year when, "on paper" I should be at the top of the league...

But that is sports in general, is it not?. It's why we keep coming back for more, year after year.

It's why people cry when their team finally makes the Final Four after 40+ years (NC State fans in my part of the world). It's why I just fired up OOTP two minutes ago even though last night I was ready to erase it off my computer I was so mad...

[letsgobuccos]

Originally Posted by Humboldt KA

Lineup question: How bad is a -16 team ZR after ~90 games when the next worst in the majors is about -8? I do it because Lefty O'Doul, Gavvy Cravath (awful fielders), Frankie Frisch (40), and Jim Bottomley (43)* are great hitters--and I do lead the majors in runs--but I can't tell if it's worth it.

Let's see. 16 runs below average in 90 games, about 29 runs in 162 games, 3.6 runs per batter.

Around 10 runs per win, so 2.9 wins lost on defense for the season.

For a full season batter, 0.070 wOBA points are equivalent to a win (think .370 vs .300). So the average fielder relative to your team is losing 0.36 wins on defense, which is 0.025 wOBA points. So basically if you get take the average fielder on your team and compare him to a league average fielder for his position he has to go from, say 0.400 wOBA (go with OBP in a pinch) to 0.425.

[Brad K]

In my current save I'm -24.2 after 126 games. The problem is middle IF and 3B.

2B is zone -8.3 WAR 2.9
SS is zone -10.0 WAR 0.9
3B is zone -5.0WAR 3.5

The team is number one in scoring and has an 84-42 record. So I'd say that except for SS the loss of defense is worth it.