Players swinging on 3-0 counts: managing in one pitch mode

[Nunyer]

In my fictional league, using one-pitch mode, I see a lot of players swinging at 3-0... which traditionally should be an automatic take. Typically this is when I will take the first pitch, and then follow that up with "swing away". Then the one-pitch mode kicks in and whatever else happens in that AB plays out... But why oh why do they ever swing at 3-0? Is my "swing away" order at the 1-0 or 0-1 count overriding baseball common sense later in the count?

This doesn't happen at EVERY 3-0 count... but it is a hair-puller whenever I see it. Has anybody else experienced this? If so, is there a way to mitigate it from happening?

EDIT: Just for the record, it seems that the CPU teams swing away at a similar rate on 3-0 counts as well... so it's not that I'm trying to frame this as the game giving me the shaft.

[The Wolf]

The Nationals are swinging at a lot of 3-0 pitches - The Washington Post

WAD?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

In my fictional league, using one-pitch mode, I see a lot of players swinging at 3-0... which traditionally should be an automatic take. Typically this is when I will take the first pitch, and then follow that up with "swing away". Then the one-pitch mode kicks in and whatever else happens in that AB plays out... But why oh why do they ever swing at 3-0? Is my "swing away" order at the 1-0 or 0-1 count overriding baseball common sense later in the count?

This doesn't happen at EVERY 3-0 count... but it is a hair-puller whenever I see it. Has anybody else experienced this? If so, is there a way to mitigate it from happening?

EDIT: Just for the record, it seems that the CPU teams swing away at a similar rate on 3-0 counts as well... so it's not that I'm trying to frame this as the game giving me the shaft.

How many 3-0 counts are you seeing? Unless I'm misreading the data 3-0 counts are rare. It's happened 3118 times in 3990 games this year. Astoundingly it's only happened at all in 51% (2064) of games this year. I find that to be much less than my perceived occurrence.

So far this year 8% of 3-0 counts have produced a swing. That's approximately 1 in 12 occurrences. At a rate of 0.78/game that means you'd need 15.4 games to see 12X3-0 counts for which you should see 1 swing. You must be playing lots of games or else you have very high swing rates as you suggest.

See the table from BR.

                    G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
First Pitch	3949	16861	15853	2843	5357	1041	107	668	568	226	0	0		.338	.343	.543	.887	8616	542	235	560	213	0	192	.305	144	100
1-0 Count	3722	10483	10174	1791	3394	697	71	440	268	101	0	0		.334	.334	.546	.880	5553	354	63	125	119	0	117	.300	142	100
2-0 Count	2524	3810	3715	734	1227	273	21	198	92	25	0	0		.330	.330	.575	.905	2136	102	23	23	49	0	52	.289	148	100
3-0 Count	2064	3118	233	131	83	22	2	22	19	4	2873	0	0.00	.356	.950	.751	1.701	175	6	4	1	7	817	3	.280	387	100
0-1 Count	3873	13882	13355	1795	4142	769	56	366	259	98	0	0		.310	.318	.458	.776	6121	442	207	207	107	0	158	.288	115	100
1-1 Count	3847	13225	12868	1949	4220	839	61	435	257	84	0	0		.328	.331	.504	.835	6486	369	118	113	125	0	170	.301	131	100
2-1 Count	3437	7845	7708	1308	2703	562	61	363	100	48	0	0		.351	.352	.581	.932	4476	209	43	32	60	0	69	.316	157	100
3-1 Count	3187	6737	3225	697	1112	244	20	224	29	22	3449	0	0.00	.345	.680	.641	1.321	2068	91	11	11	41	36	32	.292	275	100
0-2 Count	3840	13314	13088	817	1996	348	40	135	151	40	0	6511		.153	.161	.216	.377	2829	203	142	28	55	0	92	.286	5	100
1-2 Count	3981	22234	21893	1547	3667	638	54	304	178	50	0	9938		.167	.175	.243	.419	5325	303	229	26	85	0	167	.287	16	100
2-2 Count	3973	20981	20718	1603	3746	709	76	375	147	36	1	8767	8767.00	.181	.186	.277	.463	5732	302	163	11	85	0	167	.289	28	100
Full Count	3960	19451	13639	1528	2980	597	67	350	123	92	5688	4755	0.84	.218	.448	.349	.797	4761	140	44	3	71	2	99	.306	129	100
After 1-0	3990	60315	50439	6922	13613	2740	263	1690			8801	9438	1.07	.270	.379	.435	.815	21949	1158	375	252	438	833	487	.300	128	100
After 2-0	3962	21016	14491	2279	4065	832	71	566			6271	2409	0.38	.281	.496	.465	.961	6737	327	75	44	134	822	140	.300	173	100
After 3-0	3213	7045	2552	488	736	165	8	118			4456	447	0.10	.288	.739	.498	1.237	1271	57	8	8	21	818	20	.308	258	100
After 0-1	3990	74765	70177	6773	15657	2958	266	1522			3210	20533	6.40	.223	.263	.338	.600	23713	1363	672	328	366	22	639	.292	68	100
After 1-1	3990	59693	53793	5829	12856	2530	244	1407			4955	14475	2.92	.239	.307	.374	.680	20095	980	443	168	323	33	483	.299	90	100
After 2-1	3990	30830	25120	3141	6407	1287	140	803			5347	6026	1.13	.255	.387	.413	.800	10383	475	144	45	166	36	194	.304	125	100
After 3-1	3792	12648	7311	1163	2003	417	37	320			5240	1402	0.27	.274	.575	.472	1.047	3454	138	22	12	62	36	57	.298	199	100
After 0-2	3988	30006	28803	2066	4813	870	87	433			785	13087	16.67	.167	.195	.248	.444	7156	418	259	36	121	0	228	.284	24	100
After 1-2	3990	42491	39744	3104	7148	1320	132	717			2208	16987	7.69	.180	.228	.274	.502	10883	519	342	31	162	1	323	.290	40	100
After 2-2	3990	34521	30271	2638	5835	1133	126	629			3898	12120	3.11	.193	.288	.301	.589	9107	395	196	13	135	2	241	.295	66	100
Zero Balls	3990	44057	42296	5455	11495	2158	203	1169	978	364	0	6511		.272	.279	.415	.695	17566	1187	584	795	375	0	442	.295	92	100
Zero Strikes	3987	34272	29975	5499	10061	2033	201	1328	947	356	2873	0	0.00	.336	.395	.550	.945	16480	1004	325	709	388	817	364	.301	162	100
Three Balls	3985	29306	17097	2356	4175	863	89	596	171	118	12010	4755	0.40	.244	.555	.410	.964	7004	237	59	15	119	855	134	.302	178	100
Two Strikes	3990	75980	69338	5495	12389	2292	237	1164	599	218	5689	29971	5.27	.179	.246	.269	.515	18647	948	578	68	296	2	525	.292	45	100
Batter Ahead	3990	51444	38694	6189	11499	2395	242	1597	631	292	12010	4755	0.40	.297	.462	.495	.958	19169	902	188	195	347	855	372	.303	170	100
Even Count	3990	51067	49439	6395	13323	2589	244	1478	972	346	1	8767	8767.00	.269	.275	.421	.696	20834	1213	516	684	423	0	529	.299	92	100
Pitcher Ahead	3990	49430	48336	4159	9805	1755	150	805	588	188	0	16449		.203	.211	.295	.507	14275	948	578	261	247	0	417	.287	40	100

[Nunyer]

Whoa... I never would have thought it was 8% swinging.. I would have guessed maybe half that.

Did a spot check on month of games... I don't think the percentages of swings are off, just that I'm getting a lot of 3-0 counts overall. As many as 10 in a single game... with just under 4 per game over the first 33 games.

So it's likely a matter of just seeing more 3-0 counts than is normal fooling me into thinking guys were swinging away at a higher rate.

[The Wolf]

More data:

Baseball Prospectus | PITCHf/x Mailbag: Swing Tendencies on 3-0 Counts

[CobaltJays]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

This doesn't happen at EVERY 3-0 count... but it is a hair-puller whenever I see it. Has anybody else experienced this? If so, is there a way to mitigate it from happening?

I use one pitch mode primarily, and this is something that has irritated me as well. If there's a key moment in the game, I'll switch to pitch-by-pitch mode, at least until the batter has a strike on him.

I would like to have the option of stopping the sim on a 3-0 count and signalling whether the batter has the green light or red light. It's something that a manager really should have control over.

[Nunyer]

Sometimes it does happen at the worse possible time. I wouldn't mind in the 3rd inning with two outs and nobody on... But when it's the bottom of the 8th in a close game and a 3-0 swing leads to an inning ending double play.. it's a bit nerve racking.

That's not a bad idea tho... switching to pitch-by-pitch in tight situations.., will try that next time.

[RchW]

I'm still researching this but the problem is that OOTP is generating too many 3-0 counts vs RL MLB. My sample size is still too small to be definitive but it appears that OOTP is generating just over 3 X 3-0 counts per game. This season in MLB the average is 1.58. I just tracked the last two days on BR and got 47 in 30 games played which is 1.57.

So far it seems that IRL MLB players swing at about 7.5% of 3-0 counts and in my MLB fictional league they swing at 9.2% of 3-0 counts. That alone is not a huge difference but given that the 3-0 rate in OOTP is almost double it's easy to see why one would perceive they swing too often.

I'll check some other RL seasons to see if the rate of 3-0 counts and the swing rate change significantly. If anyone is interested in helping with data try reading about 10 OOTP game logs and tracking how many 3-0 counts you get.
Edit

Swinging on a 3-0 count does happen IRL even in critical situations. See Jayson Werth below. So far this year there have been 240 AB at 3-0, most (all?) of them swings. The results

H 86
HR 22
GDP 6
SH 1
SF 7
ROE 3

[Nunyer]

I think a good thing to add to one-pitch mode would be a prompt at 3-0, similar to the prompt when asking if you want a runner to try for 3rd from 1st on a base hit. That decision has absolutely nothing to do with the manager at all... yet the manager gets the option.

"Count is 3-0, do you give the green light?"

EDIT: Just for the record, I was trying to reiterate CobaltJay's suggestion from above and not claim it as my own.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

I think a good thing to add to one-pitch mode would be a prompt at 3-0, similar to the prompt when asking if you want a runner to try for 3rd from 1st on a base hit. That decision has absolutely nothing to do with the manager at all... yet the manager gets the option.

"Count is 3-0, do you give the green light?"

Good idea.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Nunyer

I think a good thing to add to one-pitch mode would be a prompt at 3-0, similar to the prompt when asking if you want a runner to try for 3rd from 1st on a base hit. That decision has absolutely nothing to do with the manager at all... yet the manager gets the option.

"Count is 3-0, do you give the green light?"

I'd suggest putting it into the players game strategy page. We already have the option there to never pinch hit for and to never pinch hit when tired. I'd give my better hitters the green light.

[Nunyer]

Yes, should be a corresponding strategy option for simulation situations... But when actually managing games, I'd prefer the direct involvement.

[CarriageTownBaseball]

I know it's an old thread, but it's still an issue. Some managers have a take on 3-0 policy. That should be an option. I'm not interested in debating "what statistically happens." If I'm managing a club, and I have a take on 3-0 policy, you'd be sitting the next inning if you violate that policy. I've tried that. It doesn't learn. This is a MASSIVE oversight (as is the inability to have runners go on contact).