How would you pick your playoff opponent?

[lightgrenade07]

I'm tweaking the playoff format for my fictional league, where the #1 seed in each league will get to "draft" their opponent for the division series. (i.e. I'll manually assign a division series matchup).

I'm curious to hear how you might go about drafting your division series opponent:

-would you just go based on overall season record? (pick the team with the worst regular season record)
-head-to-head records against specific teams? (pick the team you played the best against in the regular season)
-the opponent with the most fatigue in the starting pitching rotation? (pick the team where you can match your #1, #2 starters against the back end of their rotation)

etc

For context, here's the overall setup:

-2 subleagues of 20 teams each (40 total); 4 divisions in each subleague, 5 teams per division.
-In each subleague, the 4 division winners make the postseason, along with 3 wildcards.
-The #1 seed skips the wildcard round.

Seeds #2-7 participate in "Wildcard Weekend," where the higher seed has two chances to win one game at home. If the higher seed gets a win, the matchup is over; if the lower seed wins twice, they advance.

After Wildcard Weekend, the #1 seed and the three Wildcard winners make it to the Division Series, which is where I'll manually adjust the matchups based on "who the manager for the #1 seeded team wants to play against."

Most of the time, I'll probably just automatically go with "#1 seed drafts the lowest-seeded team." But for storyline purposes, it would be interesting to mix things up and have that #1 seed draft a different matchup from time to time. So I'm just curious to hear if anybody has thoughts on how they might personally approach that situation, if you were the manager for that #1 seeded team.

[Bobfather]

I would pick the tough opponent, once/ if you beat them then you face weaker competition throughout the rest of the postseason. Except WS.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

I would pick the tough opponent, once/ if you beat them then you face weaker competition throughout the rest of the postseason. Except WS.

Wow. I have to respect the choice just for how ballsy it is, but the strongest competition could get taken out by someone else and you'd have an overall easier path to a championship.

It's hard to nail it down, OP, but I'd just try to find the best matchup, regardless of overall record. For example, say the best opponent record-wise is just decimated with injuries I might go for them. Or say my park is tailored to speedsters and not so much power, I might choose to go against an all power no speed team. There are countless factors you could look at.

You know what I'd do if I were you, I'd either roll a die to decide or create a randomizing spreadsheet. And then if what comes up makes any sense at all, go with that team, but if not, roll again.

[Bluenoser]

Stronger/Weaker competition???

I'm confused, since when did regular season records mean anything in the post season? Maybe back in the 60's/early 70's when there was only 1 or 2 divisions in each league

Truth is, you never know what you're getting when the post season starts. We see examples of it every year.

Apologies to the OP as I can't offer a suggestion. I would never do this type of system. I can't imagine giving a "weaker" team motivation to beat me in the post season because I picked them as an easy target. Teams already have enough motivation to win in the post season.

[lightgrenade07]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Stronger/Weaker competition???

I'm confused, since when did regular season records mean anything in the post season? Maybe back in the 60's/early 70's when there was only 1 or 2 divisions in each league

Truth is, you never know what you're getting when the post season starts. We see examples of it every year.

Apologies to the OP as I can't offer a suggestion. I would never do this type of system. I can't imagine giving a "weaker" team motivation to beat me in the post season because I picked them as an easy target. Teams already have enough motivation to win in the post season.

You've landed on exactly why I chose this system: storyline purposes. In the world of the game, the division series becomes a grudge match. Bwa ha ha ha ha ha haaaaaaa.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

I can't imagine giving a "weaker" team motivation to beat me in the post season because I picked them as an easy target. Teams already have enough motivation to win in the post season.

I don't think it would be so much an issue for baseball as it would be for other sports. Baseball isn't so much a contact sport as it is a finesse sport. Yeah, you've got HBP and sliding hard into the bases, but that's about it and you can get penalized pretty hard for them if it looks like you're trying to hurt your opponent. And so, if anything, I think some of the players on the picked team might lose their cool. In a contact sport you might be able to psyche yourself to hit someone harder, but what are you going to do in baseball, swing/pitch/run faster? If you're not already up as high as you can possibly get for a postseason game, I doubt this kind of "extra motivation" is going to do anything positive for you.

I wouldn't at all mind seeing it IRL. It'd be great for sports talk.

[lightgrenade07]

Originally Posted by kq76

Wow. I have to respect the choice just for how ballsy it is, but the strongest competition could get taken out by someone else and you'd have an overall easier path to a championship.

Bobfather might be on to something here - with this particular playoff format, the division series is a rare opportunity where the #1 seed starts with their top pitchers fully rested, while the other teams are likely in the middle of their pitching rotations. That mismatch could be a huge advantage.

And if you're the #1 seed, you might not get another chance to knock out the top team in that moment of weakness.

Of course, the flip side of that is, you could pick to knock out a weaker team in their moment of weakness.

It's hard to nail it down, OP, but I'd just try to find the best matchup, regardless of overall record. For example, say the best opponent record-wise is just decimated with injuries I might go for them. Or say my park is tailored to speedsters and not so much power, I might choose to go against an all power no speed team. There are countless factors you could look at.

You know what I'd do if I were you, I'd either roll a die to decide or create a randomizing spreadsheet. And then if what comes up makes any sense at all, go with that team, but if not, roll again.

I like this approach for when I'm managing a team. For times when I'm in "commissioner mode" and focused more on storylines, I could also adapt something like this, while also factoring in the personalities of the team managers.

[Le Grande Orange]

The independent American Association used just this sort of pick-your-opponent format for its 2024 playoffs. The top four teams in the two divisions made the postseason, and the division winners selected which division rival they would play in the first round.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by kq76

I don't think it would be so much an issue for baseball as it would be for other sports. Baseball isn't so much a contact sport as it is a finesse sport. Yeah, you've got HBP and sliding hard into the bases, but that's about it and you can get penalized pretty hard for them if it looks like you're trying to hurt your opponent. And so, if anything, I think some of the players on the picked team might lose their cool. In a contact sport you might be able to psyche yourself to hit someone harder, but what are you going to do in baseball, swing/pitch/run faster? If you're not already up as high as you can possibly get for a postseason game, I doubt this kind of "extra motivation" is going to do anything positive for you.

I wouldn't at all mind seeing it IRL. It'd be great for sports talk.

We'll agree to disagree on that then. There's more to it than "contact".

[lightgrenade07]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

We'll agree to disagree on that then. There's more to it than "contact".

I see areas where I agree with both of you.

I agree with kq76 that players on the drafted team could lose their cool, break concentration etc. - and baseball is a concentration-heavy game.

But at the same time, with what you're saying on extra motivation - maybe that could encourage a starting pitcher to throw just a smidge harder, or encourage the outfield to sprint a touch faster to deny a ball that otherwise would have fallen into the gap for a hit, etc. Or if a runner with 40 stolen bases that year has made it to 1st, maybe the catcher & pitcher are just a wee bit more ready to throw him out just out of pure spite.

Here's another scenario: I could imagine a manager of the top-seeded team being frustrated with the lackadaisical atmosphere in the team clubhouse, and so he might publicly make a point of drafting the best opponent possible to send a message to his guys.

So there's a lot of ways this thing could play out, and for storyline purposes, I fully plan on using elements of what you both have laid out. You've both pointed out very plausible dangers.