I hate this so much.

pastorjoeboggs · 01-30-2025, 01:19 PM

I won 75 packs in a tourney last night. I saved all of them for post TWIPT. I got my twitch drops. 85 packs.

Not one diamond card. 485+ dupes out of 510 cards.

But I watch a streamer open packs and, in 75 packs they always end up with one of the brand new perfects and several diamonds.

It's so infuriating.

LeeD · 01-30-2025, 01:51 PM

The streamers are generally opening something more than Standard packs, so they're guaranteed to get some good cards in the mix. At this point in the cycle, that many dupes is pretty much normal unless you're opening top-tier packs (which are nonetheless a waste of money given the high cost...they're like scratcher tickets).

Hwilensky · 02-05-2025, 05:24 AM

The packs are garbage...complete and utter garbage. I opened 225 packs between two teams i got ONE diamond....they probably changed the odds and did not tell anyone....opening packs is like getting kicked in the nads...over and over and over and over again.....Just BS...

cwhitman · 02-05-2025, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwilensky

The packs are garbage...complete and utter garbage. I opened 225 packs between two teams i got ONE diamond....they probably changed the odds and did not tell anyone....opening packs is like getting kicked in the nads...over and over and over and over again.....Just BS...

that is massively illegal. they would not do that and risk huge lawsuits.

dishnet34 · 02-05-2025, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwilensky

they probably changed the odds and did not tell anyone....opening packs is like getting kicked in the nads...over and over and over and over again.....Just BS...

*Insert extremely loud and annoying game show incorrect buzzer noise here*. Stop that. Full stop. Odds like that are NEVER changed without any notice whatsoever. Get flippin' real bruh. I get you're frustrated, but cut that out.

Germaniac · 02-06-2025, 01:39 PM

The odds for a Standard pack are Diamond - 1:150 and Perfect - 1:1000

But - these are the odds.

The is no guarantee that you will get a Diamond within 150 packs or a Perfect within 1000 Packs.

I understand your frustration, I feel the same when I rip packs and get all these live duplicates, but I also had (and have) stretches when Diamonds and Perfects come up almost regularly ... it's luck, nothing else.

rburgh · 02-06-2025, 04:16 PM

The quoted odds are for each of the five completely random cards in a pack. Regular packs select one bronze randomly, then each of the othe5 5 cards is assigned a level according to the posted odds and then a card from that level is selected randomly.

So, on average, you should get a perfect every 200 packs and a diamond every 30 packs. There is about an 8% chance that, in 75 regular packs, you will not pull any diamonds. And about 2 times in 3 you will pull no perfect in 75 regular packs. Combining those odds, there is about a 1 in 19 chance you will pull no perfects or diamonds.

You were unlucky, to be sure, but not as unlucky as you think you were.

5rings · 02-07-2025, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pastorjoeboggs

I won 75 packs in a tourney last night. I saved all of them for post TWIPT. I got my twitch drops. 85 packs.

Not one diamond card. 485+ dupes out of 510 cards.

But I watch a streamer open packs and, in 75 packs they always end up with one of the brand new perfects and several diamonds.

It's so infuriating.

You got 25 new cards out of 85 packs? Wow, this late in the season that's a huge win. I hope for 1 new every 25 packs at this stage....

And if you want to complain....I grinded to get the All Perfect Pack. 5 Lives and one 100 Future Star. Pretty much the worst you can get, but those are the breaks.

rburgh · 02-09-2025, 02:39 PM

That's worse than a regular pack with live iron relievers and 1 bronze catcher with a 45 defensive rating.

Hwilensky · 02-09-2025, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5rings

You got 25 new cards out of 85 packs? Wow, this late in the season that's a huge win. I hope for 1 new every 25 packs at this stage....

And if you want to complain....I grinded to get the All Perfect Pack. 5 Lives and one 100 Future Star. Pretty much the worst you can get, but those are the breaks.

No what's worse is when the last 3 perfects you pull are all Freddie Freeman Live cards. It's bad enough they are far and few between, but what are the "odds" that the last 3 you pull are all Freddie Freeman's. Out of what a 100 or so perfects, and you pull the same 3....That sucks!!

What's worse, is I have a team, that has over 1 million pp and over 300 packs to open, and that brings me greater joy than actually the opening of the packs. Opening packs is like opening 80's junk wax.

cwhitman · 02-10-2025, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwilensky

No what's worse is when the last 3 perfects you pull are all Freddie Freeman Live cards. It's bad enough they are far and few between, but what are the "odds" that the last 3 you pull are all Freddie Freeman's. Out of what a 100 or so perfects, and you pull the same 3....That sucks!!

What's worse, is I have a team, that has over 1 million pp and over 300 packs to open, and that brings me greater joy than actually the opening of the packs. Opening packs is like opening 80's junk wax.

someone opened an all perfect pack and got three of the bad same historic perfect in the same pack...it happens...that is how probability works. gotta rip through the variance.

pastorjoeboggs · 02-11-2025, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5rings

You got 25 new cards out of 85 packs? Wow, this late in the season that's a huge win. I hope for 1 new every 25 packs at this stage....

And if you want to complain....I grinded to get the All Perfect Pack. 5 Lives and one 100 Future Star. Pretty much the worst you can get, but those are the breaks.

I concede, good sir.

I think that might be enough for me to revert to my thirteen year old Sega Game Gear playing self and chuck the computer across the room.

pastorjoeboggs · 02-11-2025, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dishnet34

*Insert extremely loud and annoying game show incorrect buzzer noise here*. Stop that. Full stop. Odds like that are NEVER changed without any notice whatsoever. Get flippin' real bruh. I get you're frustrated, but cut that out.

Question - are the odds of pulling one of the "better" (101+) perfects greater in purchased packs?

For example, last weekend I pulled the diamond Jack Morris on one of my teams, sold it and bought a rainbow historical pack. In all my pack openings of three teams - perfect and rainbow packs included, I've pulled maybe 1 101+ card. My first rainbow historical and I nab a 104 Maddux. It made me curious.

dishnet34 · 02-11-2025, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pastorjoeboggs

Question - are the odds of pulling one of the "better" (101+) perfects greater in purchased packs?

No. In the simplest terms, the odds are pulling a 101+ perfect are pretty much the same whether or not the pack (if we're talking standards, for reply's sake) was purchased, gotten from missions, or gotten from drops.

rburgh · 02-11-2025, 10:44 AM

From a regular perfect or rainbow pack - 56%
From a historical perfect or rainbow pack - 57%

From a generic diamond or lower pack - 0.28% (one in 356)
From a historical diamond or lower pack - 0.286% (one in 350)

01-30-2025, 01:19 PM	#1
pastorjoeboggs Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2024 Posts: 41	I hate this so much. I won 75 packs in a tourney last night. I saved all of them for post TWIPT. I got my twitch drops. 85 packs. Not one diamond card. 485+ dupes out of 510 cards. But I watch a streamer open packs and, in 75 packs they always end up with one of the brand new perfects and several diamonds. It's so infuriating.

02-05-2025, 05:24 AM	#3
Hwilensky All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 668	The packs are garbage...complete and utter garbage. I opened 225 packs between two teams i got ONE diamond....they probably changed the odds and did not tell anyone....opening packs is like getting kicked in the nads...over and over and over and over again.....Just BS... __________________

02-06-2025, 01:39 PM	#6
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,054	The odds for a Standard pack are Diamond - 1:150 and Perfect - 1:1000 But - these are the *odds*. The is no guarantee that you will get a Diamond within 150 packs or a Perfect within 1000 Packs. I understand your frustration, I feel the same when I rip packs and get all these live duplicates, but I also had (and have) stretches when Diamonds and Perfects come up almost regularly ... it's luck, nothing else. __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

02-06-2025, 04:16 PM	#7
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 881	Pack odds The quoted odds are for each of the five completely random cards in a pack. Regular packs select one bronze randomly, then each of the othe5 5 cards is assigned a level according to the posted odds and then a card from that level is selected randomly. So, on average, you should get a perfect every 200 packs and a diamond every 30 packs. There is about an 8% chance that, in 75 regular packs, you will not pull any diamonds. And about 2 times in 3 you will pull no perfect in 75 regular packs. Combining those odds, there is about a 1 in 19 chance you will pull no perfects or diamonds. You were unlucky, to be sure, but not as unlucky as you think you were.

02-09-2025, 02:39 PM	#9
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 881	Wow That's worse than a regular pack with live iron relievers and 1 bronze catcher with a 45 defensive rating.

01-30-2025, 01:51 PM	#2
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 608	The streamers are generally opening something more than Standard packs, so they're guaranteed to get some good cards in the mix. At this point in the cycle, that many dupes is pretty much normal unless you're opening top-tier packs (which are nonetheless a waste of money given the high cost...they're like scratcher tickets).

02-11-2025, 10:44 AM	#15
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 881	Odds of pulling a 101+ From a regular perfect or rainbow pack - 56% From a historical perfect or rainbow pack - 57% From a generic diamond or lower pack - 0.28% (one in 356) From a historical diamond or lower pack - 0.286% (one in 350)