development lab research study

[jaa36]

Hi, I did some research on the development lab results to get a little more info on the relative success rates of different programs, and the results from each potential outcome.

Methods:
-This was generally done in OOTP 26.3.55
-I did this with the "Run development lab to adjust player ratings" button in the player editor. It's possible that the results would be different in the actual game (over the course of months rather than instant).
-These were done with players with average personality ratings- the pitcher was 21 and position player was 22. I also did testing on whether those factors (age and personality) affected things. I didn't worry about player relationships with coaching staff- too complicated.
-I then ran 100 of each type of development lab with each player. There are some limitations on when you can run specific labs (as in, can't do some labs if ratings are too high) so I'd adjust ratings from time to time to make sure I could keep running the lab I wanted.
-All ratings are reported as listed in the editor, so typically on the 1-600 or 1-250 scales.

Results: (see attached screenshots and file for details)
-The % of "successful" results tracked well with the difficulty ratings: very easy ~60% successful, easy ~45%, medium 35%, hard 25%.
-The % of "outstanding" results wasn't nearly as consistent, ranging between 8 and 31%, but not necessarily syncing up with difficulty ratings (as in, the 31% was a "medium" difficulty lab).
-The % of "poor" results also was not consistent, ranging between 0 and 11% (with several 0% in the "hard" difficulty labs).
-Personality ratings did not have a significant effect (if any) on the results.
-Age may have had a very small effect, with fewer "outstanding" results for older players.
-The "results" (as in outstanding vs. successful vs. no improvement vs. poor) did not appear affected by how close a player was to their max ratings. However, players would have very different numerical results based on how close they were to their max ratings- and for many attributes, the best results would occur in the middle of the ratings curve. For example, for teach infield, you would end up with 5-8 points of improvement (on 1-250 scale) for a successful result if you started in the 80-140 range, but only 1-2 points if you started above 140.
-The ratings benefits from different labs vary quite a bit. For example, a successful result in the Improve Movement lab gets you 32 to 49 points of HRA (on the 1-600 scale), whereas a successful result for Improve Control gets you only 9 to 25 points of Control.
-There were several results where the "reported" result did not actually occur. Specifically, neither the secondary pitch improvement or improve pitch arsenal labs actually improve the pitch's potential with an outstanding result, even though the after-lab report says it does. (I reported this as a bug a while back, but got a response that there is a "hidden" potential that does improve, which seems dubious to me...) Poor results on the Add Pitch and Secondary Pitch Improvement labs give a report saying that stamina decreased, when it hadn't.
-An outstanding result on Two-Strike Approach will only give 1 more Avoid K's, which is way lower than anything else- likely also a bug.
-For the Learn New Position labs, it appears impossible to learn center field. Catcher and right field are also less likely to be learned than other positions.

In my opinion, based on this data, the most valuable "long" programs are easily the Improve Movement and Generate Batspeed- they end up with very good benefits to their respective ratings, which are the most valuable ratings (HRA, Power) in the first place, and without much more risk (if any) than the other programs. The most valuable "short" programs are the Improve Defense programs, particularly for players <140 at their current defensive ratings, and there's really zero downside risk for these--as nothing bad happens with a poor result.

Happy to answer any questions about the results!

[shakturi101]

For the modern MLB environment,I had an idea of this as well before seeing this, but it does look like the meta of programs is bat speed for hitters, movement for pitchers, a smattering of defense as needed. Then the strength and conditioning as needed for MLB vets that are injury prone.

I am still intrigued by the velocity program for its ability to increase potential on only a successful program. But I am right in seeing that velocity seems to have little effect on stuff? Did it get nerfed at some point?

Also wouldn’t certain pitchers get a bigger increase in stuff from velocity increases. Say a pitcher with a good fastball and slider gets a better increase than a pitcher with only a knuckle and change up

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by shakturi101

I am still intrigued by the velocity program for its ability to increase potential on only a successful program. But I am right in seeing that velocity seems to have little effect on stuff? Did it get nerfed at some point?

Also wouldn’t certain pitchers get a bigger increase in stuff from velocity increases. Say a pitcher with a good fastball and slider gets a better increase than a pitcher with only a knuckle and change up

Yeah I believe this is correct. One tick of velocity will have some effect on stuff, but the effect will vary based on what pitches the pitcher throws- more effect for a fastball/slider pitcher than for a changeup guy. It's very possible the effect would have been more substantial if I had chosen a different pitching prospect- I unfortunately didn't jot down what pitches he started with before I began messing with him. And the effect would also likely vary depending on where he's starting from velocity-wise.

[Eburaci]

Is your takeaway that improve secondary pitch is better for increasing stuff than improve pitch arsenal? I guess the advantage being that pitch arsenal targets a bad offering, while secondary could land on any non-FB… based on these results, how would you target stuff in the dev lab?

[jaa36]

If my goal were to improve stuff, I'd probably just do the increase velocity program. I realize as I look at it that I inverted the benefits to stuff from outstanding vs successful for that program- an outstanding result ended up with a 20-23 point increase, vs a successful result with 13 to 16 for successful. This tends to be a bit better than what you would expect from either the secondary pitch improvement or improve pitch arsenal programs, though a successful result was somewhat more common in the secondary pitch improvement vs increase velocity. There probably are exceptions to that- if there is a guy with a really poor second pitch compared to the first, and it's a change-up or circle change (thus not dependent on velocity), then the secondary pitch improvement might make more sense.

The only reason I could think of to do the improve pitch arsenal training would be if you have a guy who is listed as a "borderline starter" and you want to bump up his third pitch to get him there. Even for that, you might have better success with just increasing velocity than doing the improve pitch arsenal training.

[Paul Reuschel's Mustache]

Originally Posted by jaa36

If my goal were to improve stuff, I'd probably just do the increase velocity program. I realize as I look at it that I inverted the benefits to stuff from outstanding vs successful for that program- an outstanding result ended up with a 20-23 point increase, vs a successful result with 13 to 16 for successful. This tends to be a bit better than what you would expect from either the secondary pitch improvement or improve pitch arsenal programs, though a successful result was somewhat more common in the secondary pitch improvement vs increase velocity. There probably are exceptions to that- if there is a guy with a really poor second pitch compared to the first, and it's a change-up or circle change (thus not dependent on velocity), then the secondary pitch improvement might make more sense.

The only reason I could think of to do the improve pitch arsenal training would be if you have a guy who is listed as a "borderline starter" and you want to bump up his third pitch to get him there. Even for that, you might have better success with just increasing velocity than doing the improve pitch arsenal training.

Very interesting. Thank you for this!

[Eburaci]

Is anyone seeing that you are no longer able to run development lab in the player editor, even in commissioner mode?

[jaa36]

Still works on my end!