Crazy Bad Performances

[HRBaker]

I have this nagging feeling that the huge increase in ratings this year on all the cards have uncovered some issue where it gets to the point where only the absolute top cards can perform correctly or some combination of variables messes up the algorithms used in the game. It just doesn't make sense that you can add a "102" player with all purple ratings and watch him perform worse that the Diamond you replaced him with.

That said, it's become obvious if your not in the top 1% there isn't much reason trying to do better once June/July hit.

[LeeD]

Yes, it's felt like something is amiss for a while now. There was always too much variation in PT from season to season (considering that we're dealing with elite players in league, many of whom never had a truly bad season until age caught up with them), but this year's version has taken things to a whole new level. When I look around and see that nearly everyone is playing Variant Honus and then see that some of them are hitting .300 and some are at the Mendoza line, it's clear that the variations are way too extreme. The spread is too wide and needs to be constrained.

[HRBaker]

Originally Posted by LeeD

Yes, it's felt like something is amiss for a while now. There was always too much variation in PT from season to season (considering that we're dealing with elite players in league, many of whom never had a truly bad season until age caught up with them), but this year's version has taken things to a whole new level. When I look around and see that nearly everyone is playing Variant Honus and then see that some of them are hitting .300 and some are at the Mendoza line, it's clear that the variations are way too extreme. The spread is too wide and needs to be constrained.

I started complaining in V25 that the accelerated release of the 100-102+ cards so early in the season/year, along with the supermen variant cards was changing the battlefield - and making it impossible for anyone other than those with lots of money (or those with the ability to spend 24/7 on their computers) to succeed past June.

On one hand I understand the need to make enough money to pay salaries, but it seems to me better for everyone if you have 50,000 customers of which ~12,000 can be successful rather than 11,000 customers of which only ~2500 can be highly successful.

For the rest of us I see a game that captures my attention between March and mid summer - then I switch to the classic game until the new version comes out... and if PT doesn't look much different than v26, I could just stay with v26 and return full time to the classic game.

[Hawkwing7423]

I just got 102 Billy Wagner

8.74 ERA in 9 games so far.

He's worse in relief than 3 99's I'm using right now - Sam McDowell, Todd Van Poppel, and Bobby Jenks. Robb Nen at 98 is better in some seasons.

I just don't get it. It's 50/50 when you get a new card if they're going to be trash like Satchel Paige or decent like Dazzy Vance. This one seems to be in the trash category. Stats look fine, but he just doesn't perform.

He's pretty low priced in the card shop - L10 83k for a 102...so I guess it's known that he's bad. What I don't understand is why?

[bailey]

ERA for relief pitchers can be damaged by one bad outing. What's the game log like?

[Hawkwing7423]

Originally Posted by bailey

ERA for relief pitchers can be damaged by one bad outing. What's the game log like?

He had 4 bad outings out of the last 5.

I'll give him a shot next season.

Ok, new season, relieved 6 games, ERA is 6. For a 102, this seems like trash. Back in you go, 99 Mike Scott!

[usa_hank]

I've got Sutcliffe, Sheets, and Fernandez, arguably the three best RHPs in PT right now, and all 3 of them are pitching over 6.00 ERAs so far this season. And in HG too, since I got the relegation for the ultimate slump my team suffered 2nd half of last season. Sure, 5-6 games each, but it's still a remarkable disaster for all three to be this bad this early. Each has only served up one start with under 4 ERs.

One of the best pitchers in my league right now (not my player) is a LIVE Garret Crotchet, pitching a 2.5 ERA in 5 starts. Talk about another miracle for some lucky team...imagine the series of dice rolls this card has to have gotten? The guy has a PBABIP of 66! This team has Vance, Chandler, Sale, Stieb, and Crochet, and that team has the #1 ERA and #5 pWAR in my league, and he's rolling with Dickey and Piazza as catchers. I mean, I hope this guy bought a lottery ticket tonight...

And my Sutcliffe, Sheets, or Fernandez can barely squeak out one game with 3 runs or less...I can't even anymore.

At this point, can we all just agree we're actually playing Yahtzee rather than OOTP with this year's PT, and the names are just scribbles on a screen?

[dishnet34]

Originally Posted by usa_hank

I've got Sutcliffe, Sheets, and Fernandez, arguably the three best RHPs in PT right now, and all 3 of them are pitching over 6.00 ERAs so far this season. And in HG too, since I got the relegation for the ultimate slump my team suffered 2nd half of last season. Sure, 5-6 games each, but it's still a remarkable disaster for all three to be this bad this early. Each has only served up one start with under 4 ERs.

One of the best pitchers in my league right now (not my player) is a LIVE Garret Crotchet, pitching a 2.5 ERA in 5 starts. Talk about another miracle for some lucky team...imagine the series of dice rolls this card has to have gotten? The guy has a PBABIP of 66! This team has Vance, Chandler, Sale, Stieb, and Crochet, and that team has the #1 ERA and #5 pWAR in my league, and he's rolling with Dickey and Piazza as catchers. I mean, I hope this guy bought a lottery ticket tonight...

And my Sutcliffe, Sheets, or Fernandez can barely squeak out one game with 3 runs or less...I can't even anymore.

At this point, can we all just agree we're actually playing Yahtzee rather than OOTP with this year's PT, and the names are just scribbles on a screen?

It's Monday. Slow your roll, bud.


Also, what strategies/sliders do you have on your pitchers? What's your defense looking like? Are they getting BABIP'd to death?

[usa_hank]

Originally Posted by dishnet34

It's Monday. Slow your roll, bud.


Also, what strategies/sliders do you have on your pitchers? What's your defense looking like? Are they getting BABIP'd to death?

Would love to hear a little "Sorry dude, that sucks, some bad juju there for sure" from you for a change instead of this "slow your roll" and "OOTP is godly, you are a mere mortal that doesn't understand" feeling form your posts

Defense is above average, 6th in errors, Eff = 6th, ZR = 4th. FIP on the above three is ever so slightly better than their ERA so I know defense has played a role, but not quite as badly as I'd expect with these performances.

Sliders are set to hook my starters slightly to the "Quick" side. Honestly, I barely see a difference when I've tweaked this setting more one way or the other, but I like to think it actually does something.

What strategy settings would you reco? Help a brother out.

[Hoover36]

Originally Posted by usa_hank

At this point, can we all just agree we're actually playing Yahtzee rather than OOTP with this year's PT, and the names are just scribbles on a screen?

The fake ratings and systematic escalation didn't make that obvious from the get go?!?!?

I love this game, I have probably spent over a 100K hours of real time dedicated to playing it....but 6.5 was the best version of this game, hands down.

I treat the current version of the game like collecting cards and let the fake results be what they will be.

[dishnet34]

Originally Posted by usa_hank

Would love to hear a little "Sorry dude, that sucks, some bad juju there for sure" from you for a change instead of this "slow your roll" and "OOTP is godly, you are a mere mortal that doesn't understand" feeling form your posts

Defense is above average, 6th in errors, Eff = 6th, ZR = 4th. FIP on the above three is ever so slightly better than their ERA so I know defense has played a role, but not quite as badly as I'd expect with these performances.

Sliders are set to hook my starters slightly to the "Quick" side. Honestly, I barely see a difference when I've tweaked this setting more one way or the other, but I like to think it actually does something.

What strategy settings would you reco? Help a brother out.

First of all, you're right; I should've been a little more empathetic. That's my fault, and I was only really reacting to the tone of the post you made and calling the game "Yahtzee" when it really isn't. There's just a lot of people on these forums that just go "This game/mode sucks!!" all the time, and I am just not a fan of that stuff, and I sometimes do over-react to that. With that said, I do genuinely feel your frustration, and I've had my fair share of bad rolls too this year and in the past (I have a history with Tom Hall and Satchel Paige). Bad rolls suck, no doubt, and I'm with ya on that one.

As far as defense goes, yeah, the defense might be a bit of an issue; not sure if you're playing infield shifts frequently or not, but I have that set all the way in my strategy settings, and while I'm not sure if it makes a difference or not, my defensive stats are kinda in the middle of the pack in High Diamond this week with Collins/Lajoie-Lindor/Morgan-Lajoie/Wagner around the horn on the IF and Aaron/Charleston/Parker in the OF.

Maybe infield shifts may be worth a shot to try to help the defense a bit potentially? I'll admit I'm not the most strategy-brained person out there, but that could help a bit. I also have Guard Lines about 3/4 of the way up, OF shifts a bit above the middle and Shift OF Depth around that same area too.

As far as pitching strats, I've relatively kept things in the middle and haven't really touched much, but maybe playing the matchups a bit more could help? I'm not sure.

Again, it's probably just some bad luck or something this year, and I know it sucks to say that, but that just might be the case for you. Hopefully some regression to the mean happens for ya and you can turn your season around.

[usa_hank]

Originally Posted by dishnet34

First of all, you're right; I should've been a little more empathetic. That's my fault, and I was only really reacting to the tone of the post you made and calling the game "Yahtzee" when it really isn't. There's just a lot of people on these forums that just go "This game/mode sucks!!" all the time, and I am just not a fan of that stuff, and I sometimes do over-react to that. With that said, I do genuinely feel your frustration, and I've had my fair share of bad rolls too this year and in the past (I have a history with Tom Hall and Satchel Paige). Bad rolls suck, no doubt, and I'm with ya on that one.

As far as defense goes, yeah, the defense might be a bit of an issue; not sure if you're playing infield shifts frequently or not, but I have that set all the way in my strategy settings, and while I'm not sure if it makes a difference or not, my defensive stats are kinda in the middle of the pack in High Diamond this week with Collins/Lajoie-Lindor/Morgan-Lajoie/Wagner around the horn on the IF and Aaron/Charleston/Parker in the OF.

Maybe infield shifts may be worth a shot to try to help the defense a bit potentially? I'll admit I'm not the most strategy-brained person out there, but that could help a bit. I also have Guard Lines about 3/4 of the way up, OF shifts a bit above the middle and Shift OF Depth around that same area too.

As far as pitching strats, I've relatively kept things in the middle and haven't really touched much, but maybe playing the matchups a bit more could help? I'm not sure.

Again, it's probably just some bad luck or something this year, and I know it sucks to say that, but that just might be the case for you. Hopefully some regression to the mean happens for ya and you can turn your season around.

Update: Sheets and Fernandez have seen improvements at 4.18 and 3.88 ERA respectively, but neither can seem to finish quality starts, as they are 11-9 and 10-8 respectiovely (and my oWar is 3rd in the league, so my offense isn't the problem, my bullpen is 4th, and my defense is 3rd).

However, Sutcliffe sits at a 0.0 pWar and a 5.40 ERA with 22 starts (and a 5.38 FIP, so defense isn't the problem). As usual, my Chris Sale is the worst in the league at 5.43 ERA with 17 starts. I tried tossing Dazzy Vance in there for 1/2 of the season since he's rocking for every other team (but has never had a sub 4.9 ERA for me), but he's now the 2nd worse pWar in the league out of 34 Dazzies. Pat Dobson was playing well in the bullpen at 32 games played and 1.9 ERA, so I tossed him into the rotation for 4 games, and he lost all 4 games and gave up around 5 runs each game (about 5.2 innings per game).

I don't understand why pitching in PT is so absolutely volatile. I sold my Sabathia after 2 seasons when he first came out because his ERA was around 6.00 both seasons and my base Dave Steib was playing better.

My strategy settings are competitive and comparable to yours. My primary catcher is Pudge and secondary is Darrell Porter for his lefty bat. So catcher influence isn't an issue. This is HG (although I've seen my same pitchers soil* the bed for the past few seasons in LD and HD as well), so quality of opponents should actually make these awesome cards more awesome, but it doesn't.

The start of this topic months ago was because we were talking about a possible hidden field, seasonal modifier, or something. And just seeing the same braindead performances from the same players each season (players that play well for other teams) keeps pointing to something other than repeated random chance. If it's not strategy, it's not catcher, and random chance seems less and less likely, a smart person is going to start using logic and look at repeated patterns to make assessments here. And I'm at that point. Heck, I was at that point months ago when we started this thread, gave it more time, but these performances continue to stack and provide further evidence for that point.

[Hawkwing7423]

Originally Posted by usa_hank

The start of this topic months ago was because we were talking about a possible hidden field, seasonal modifier, or something. And just seeing the same braindead performances from the same players each season (players that play well for other teams) keeps pointing to something other than repeated random chance. If it's not strategy, it's not catcher, and random chance seems less and less likely, a smart person is going to start using logic and look at repeated patterns to make assessments here. And I'm at that point. Heck, I was at that point months ago when we started this thread, gave it more time, but these performances continue to stack and provide further evidence for that point.

I know I make mistakes in my lineups and don't do the depths of analysis that some others do who post here.

But if the game acts like players have seasonal modifiers, and I believe it clearly does, I'm going to play like it's a known factor.

I find this easier to do with pitching. I mean, to do it correctly at every position, you need multiple strong cards for each.

The best record team of my 3 this season has lots of pitchers having good years, but Dave Stieb non-variant in High Silver is doing the worst he's done for me in 18 seasons. You can't tell me there's some kind of modifier being applied. 4-11. 4.97 ERA. War 0.3 when he ranged from 1.2 WAR to 4.9 in the last 7 seasons.

Bill Pulsiper is the other side of the coin, 10-7, 3.39 ERA, War 1.6 when he's had multiple War 0.2 seasons very recently.

My LD team actually is getting a good year out of Satchel Paige as a reliever (finally) when everyone else is getting wrecked.

The more I think about it, the more I think we may even want this variance, as frustrating as it is. Because otherwise, wouldn't everything tend towards coin flips between otherwise closely equal teams?

I do wish we could see the factor, if it exists, but I suppose that would make many players unhappy as something they have no control over.

[usa_hank]

Originally Posted by Hawkwing7423

The more I think about it, the more I think we may even want this variance, as frustrating as it is. Because otherwise, wouldn't everything tend towards coin flips between otherwise closely equal teams?

I don't want it. I would prefer my team have a competitive advantage when I'm putting better players on the field. i.e. Team B is playing Stieb, Sasaki, and Hilton Smith, Mantle, Yaz, effin Nomar while I'm playing Sheets, Fernandez, Sutcliffe, Charleston, Ichiro, and de Vries - but Team B goes 30 games over .500 and mine barely squeaks into the playoffs, all because my 4-5 best players somehow have the yips an entire season. I get there's an element of chance, but that's a LOT of bad chance. I could show you 3-4 of my players who have consistently performed in the bottom quarter of the same player in the same leagues year in and year out. It's not even laughable anymore.

[Hawkwing7423]

Ah those early stats each season.

In High Silver, Lou Gehrig is batting a stellar .123 and Eric Davis is strengthening his team at a fiery .100 pace (through 17 games).

[usa_hank]

Originally Posted by Hawkwing7423

Ah those early stats each season.

In High Silver, Lou Gehrig is batting a stellar .123 and Eric Davis is strengthening his team at a fiery .100 pace (through 17 games).

Yep. I've got a LD/HD caliber roster playing in HG because of 4 seasons of bad rolls (and I've been improving the team every season with better and better cards). Sitting here with an 8-15 record, playing teams with rosters that are -30 in every rating in almost every position compared to mine. Love these rolls, e.g. Oscar Charleston already has 2 errors in CF, which is more than he had the last 2 seasons for me.

At least Sutcliffe is pitching a 3.06 ERA this season in 5 starts. Must've gotten a good 'seasonal modifier' roll for him. However, Ben Sheets has gotten the "choke" season modifier as he's sporting a lovely 7.40 ERA right now after 5 starts, and all of his starts have been against teams that are probably going to get relegated from HG to LG by looking at their lineups. Love it.

At least in Yahtzee I can reroll 2 times per round.

[Hawkwing7423]

I was excited about getting Jose Fernandez, who by the stats is probably the best pitcher I've had in 2 years playing this game. He was at a 9.72 ERA after 4 games.

On the other hand, John Smoltz for me is at 1.93 in 5 games after going 7.90 last season.

Tell me there's no seasonal modifiers, LOL.

[bailey]

There are a lot of hidden modifiers in the game. Markus, himself, said so many years ago on this forum. One particularly galling "feature" was turning injuries off. You can turn them off, but they still occur because turning injuries off would break the player development model. That's the base game, of course, but if injuries are still secretly occurring in PT that would explain the wide swings in card performance.

[dishnet34]

Originally Posted by bailey

There are a lot of hidden modifiers in the game. Markus, himself, said so many years ago on this forum. One particularly galling "feature" was turning injuries off. You can turn them off, but they still occur because turning injuries off would break the player development model. That's the base game, of course, but if injuries are still secretly occurring in PT that would explain the wide swings in card performance.

[citation needed]

[bailey]

Originally Posted by dishnet34

[citation needed]

Ripley famously said: "Believe it, or not".