Comments on My League

ACESFAN 1 · 08-27-2009, 12:49 PM

I just wanted to comment on the season I am playing. I am replaying the 1961 season and managing the Yankees. It is now the middle of July and Mantle jut hit HR # 18 and Maris is at 13. Meanwhile Rocky Colavito is leading the AL with 24. I would have thought that the M and M boys would run a little closer to their real like stats, any comments ?

SteveP · 08-27-2009, 05:14 PM

Statistical probability tells you that the range of possible outcomes during a season for an individual player is quite wide -- wider than many people apparently think possible. A .250 hitter can easily have a .225 season or a .275 season. Or anything in between. It's the same with HRs or anything else.

risp2out · 08-28-2009, 02:25 PM

Are you using 3-year recalc? '59-'61, Mantle's HR totals were 40-54-30 and Maris's were 39-61-33. With recalc, the middle year is likely to fall closer to the average of the three as I understand it.

Real-life Maris himself is evidence of how much seasonal variability there can be.

ACESFAN 1 · 08-28-2009, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by risp2out

Are you using 3-year recalc? '59-'61, Mantle's HR totals were 40-54-30 and Maris's were 39-61-33. With recalc, the middle year is likely to fall closer to the average of the three as I understand it.

Real-life Maris himself is evidence of how much seasonal variability there can be.

I guess not how do I do that ?

risp2out · 08-29-2009, 01:37 AM

Game>Game Setup>League Setup>Options

There, you will see the option to use recalc and a choice as to whether you want to base the recalc on a 1-, 3-, or 5-year basis. If you choose 3 or 5, you also have the choice to double the value of the current year stats. So, to potentially get more from Maris in '61, you could choose 1-year recalc or double the value of '61 while maintaining a 3- or 5-year basis overall.

A more experienced historical simmer might be able to give you more depth of explanation, but that's something you can play around with anyway.

ACESFAN 1 · 08-29-2009, 03:58 AM

Thank you for that tip I went and did the recalc and just finished playing a game and results were much better. In my league it is now the middle of August and the YANKEES are on a 7 game winning streak and trail the first place TWINS by only 5 games, thank heavens for the 162 game schedule that started in 1961. Oh bye the way when I changed the settings it was at 3 and I upped it to 5.

risp2out · 08-29-2009, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ACESFAN 1

Thank you for that tip I went and did the recalc and just finished playing a game and results were much better. In my league it is now the middle of August and the YANKEES are on a 7 game winning streak and trail the first place TWINS by only 5 games, thank heavens for the 162 game schedule that started in 1961. Oh bye the way when I changed the settings it was at 3 and I upped it to 5.

I haven't done it yet, but it would be interesting to run a season with recalc set at each of the three different levels and with it off and compare the results. Something tells me that a search on the forums might reveal that someone has done such an experiment (although, I don't know if anyone has with X yet.)

08-27-2009, 12:49 PM	#1
ACESFAN 1 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SPARKS, NV Posts: 185 Blog Entries: 1	Comments on My League I just wanted to comment on the season I am playing. I am replaying the 1961 season and managing the Yankees. It is now the middle of July and Mantle jut hit HR # 18 and Maris is at 13. Meanwhile Rocky Colavito is leading the AL with 24. I would have thought that the M and M boys would run a little closer to their real like stats, any comments ?

08-29-2009, 03:58 AM	#6
ACESFAN 1 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SPARKS, NV Posts: 185 Blog Entries: 1	Thank you for that tip I went and did the recalc and just finished playing a game and results were much better. In my league it is now the middle of August and the YANKEES are on a 7 game winning streak and trail the first place TWINS by only 5 games, thank heavens for the 162 game schedule that started in 1961. Oh bye the way when I changed the settings it was at 3 and I upped it to 5. Last edited by ACESFAN 1; 08-29-2009 at 03:59 AM.

08-27-2009, 05:14 PM	#2
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	Statistical probability tells you that the range of possible outcomes during a season for an individual player is quite wide -- wider than many people apparently think possible. A .250 hitter can easily have a .225 season or a .275 season. Or anything in between. It's the same with HRs or anything else.

08-28-2009, 02:25 PM	#3
risp2out All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 648	Are you using 3-year recalc? '59-'61, Mantle's HR totals were 40-54-30 and Maris's were 39-61-33. With recalc, the middle year is likely to fall closer to the average of the three as I understand it. Real-life Maris himself is evidence of how much seasonal variability there can be.

08-29-2009, 01:37 AM	#5
risp2out All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 648	Game>Game Setup>League Setup>Options There, you will see the option to use recalc and a choice as to whether you want to base the recalc on a 1-, 3-, or 5-year basis. If you choose 3 or 5, you also have the choice to double the value of the current year stats. So, to potentially get more from Maris in '61, you could choose 1-year recalc or double the value of '61 while maintaining a 3- or 5-year basis overall. A more experienced historical simmer might be able to give you more depth of explanation, but that's something you can play around with anyway.