What If?

snailbiscuit · 09-08-2009, 09:34 PM

I am interested in simming an historical league starting in 2001 and ending in 2008. I am trying to see what would have happened with Ken Griffey Jr.'s run at the all-time home run record if he had never been injured. I know I would have to turn off injuries but other than the obvious what would be the best way to set this up to get realistic results?

SteveP · 09-08-2009, 11:51 PM

The game is going to do things you can't predict and can't control. Having said that, given your objectives I would consider a different strategy. Rather than turning off injuries (or along with doing that), reduce his injury proneness to zero in all categories.

snailbiscuit · 09-09-2009, 12:29 AM

I tried this and Griffey did indeed break the record in August 2009. But I'm not really satisfied with the results because of all the ridiculous stats from the rest of the league. In 2008 despite being a career .293 hitter Brian McCann hit .376 with 55 HR (Actual career high of 24) and 155 rbi. This is just one player who I could remember without double checking, that had absolutely absurd stats. Problem is these type of stats seem to be more the rule than the exception. These ridiculous stats weren't just from one seaon either. There were consistently 5-7 players in each league with 55+ Hr and 130+ Rbi every single year from 01 to 09 including the likes of Grady Sizemore, Edwin Encarnacion, and D.T. Cromer. Any ideas on what could have went wrong? Could this have possibly have been a one-time fluke?

SteveP · 09-09-2009, 02:19 PM

If there is one thing I've learned about the OOTP community, it's that there is a very low tolerance for HR stats that are out-of-whack. If OOTP was producing bad HR results for everyone, these boards would be lit up like Times Square.

So ... are the league totals for HRs in your game close to what they were IRL. They may be too far off in your first season (though there are ways to keep that from happening), and maybe even a bit off in your second season, but after that the totals should be very close. If they are not, that's a big clue. If the league totals for HRs are historically accurate, then you have to look at reasons why individual players may be hitting a lot more or a lot fewer HRs than they did IRL (and the discrepancy has to be LARGE to be meaningful). That means looking at the Editor for a player in question, to see what game is giving him for a Power rating, and how many HRs the game expects that player to hit in a normal season. And so forth.

You can also do similar investigations for other stats that seem to be way out of line.

snailbiscuit · 09-09-2009, 05:13 PM

Thanks for the info SteveP.

09-08-2009, 09:34 PM	#1
snailbiscuit Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3	What If? I am interested in simming an historical league starting in 2001 and ending in 2008. I am trying to see what would have happened with Ken Griffey Jr.'s run at the all-time home run record if he had never been injured. I know I would have to turn off injuries but other than the obvious what would be the best way to set this up to get realistic results?

09-08-2009, 11:51 PM	#2
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	The game is going to do things you can't predict and can't control. Having said that, given your objectives I would consider a different strategy. Rather than turning off injuries (or along with doing that), reduce his injury proneness to zero in all categories.

09-09-2009, 12:29 AM	#3
snailbiscuit Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3	I tried this and Griffey did indeed break the record in August 2009. But I'm not really satisfied with the results because of all the ridiculous stats from the rest of the league. In 2008 despite being a career .293 hitter Brian McCann hit .376 with 55 HR (Actual career high of 24) and 155 rbi. This is just one player who I could remember without double checking, that had absolutely absurd stats. Problem is these type of stats seem to be more the rule than the exception. These ridiculous stats weren't just from one seaon either. There were consistently 5-7 players in each league with 55+ Hr and 130+ Rbi every single year from 01 to 09 including the likes of Grady Sizemore, Edwin Encarnacion, and D.T. Cromer. Any ideas on what could have went wrong? Could this have possibly have been a one-time fluke?

09-09-2009, 02:19 PM	#4
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	If there is one thing I've learned about the OOTP community, it's that there is a very low tolerance for HR stats that are out-of-whack. If OOTP was producing bad HR results for everyone, these boards would be lit up like Times Square. So ... are the league totals for HRs in your game close to what they were IRL. They may be too far off in your first season (though there are ways to keep that from happening), and maybe even a bit off in your second season, but after that the totals should be very close. If they are not, that's a big clue. If the league totals for HRs are historically accurate, then you have to look at reasons why individual players may be hitting a lot more or a lot fewer HRs than they did IRL (and the discrepancy has to be LARGE to be meaningful). That means looking at the Editor for a player in question, to see what game is giving him for a Power rating, and how many HRs the game expects that player to hit in a normal season. And so forth. You can also do similar investigations for other stats that seem to be way out of line.

09-09-2009, 05:13 PM	#5
snailbiscuit Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3	Thanks for the info SteveP.