Stat Projection (WHIP AVG etc...) Behaving Oddly?

Jays_Fan · 10-30-2013, 04:24 PM

I accidently posted this in my previous question So I figured a new thread was more appropriate:

Stat Projection (WHIP AVG etc...) Behaving Oddly?
Hey Folks

New question:

Im noticing in my fictional league that my projections seem a tad wanky.

Eg: For a Starting Pitcher, the Games started and win/loss seem normal.

But when it comes to WHIP and the like.. even late in a season, the projection is either exactly what his actual WHIP is or like .01 off.

For batters its similar for AVG OPS etc... This is across all teams and players.

Is there something wonky going on?

I has JUST started a new league so to troubleshoot I just uninstalled the game, deleted folders etc, re-installed and then Set the league back up. Same problem.

I know its hard to explain and maybe there's no problem at all and I'm just blowing it out of proportion.

I can provide some screenshots if it will help.

Thanks fellow GM's
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slugga27 · 10-30-2013, 05:13 PM

There's nothing wrong, in my estimation.

The projections are all based on current stats. So, if a player is hitting .333 through the first two games of the season, believe it or not...his projection will be .333 for the season.

The reason the win/loss and games started seems "normal" is because those are "counting" stats, or stats that can go nowhere but up. For example, let's say a hitter hits two home runs over the course of the first two games of the season. Assuming it's a 162 game season, his projected home run output for the season, on that day, will be 162. At the time, it may seem outlandish, but that's mathematically accurate.

I don't know if this makes any sense...the bottom line is that averages (BA, WHIP, even ERA) are difficult to project because so many factors come into play.

RchW · 10-30-2013, 05:15 PM

Do you mean the projected stats on the player page? If so then nothing is wrong. The projection really only applies to counting stats. For example I have a player who has hit 23 HR in my teams first 81 games. He has played 79 of 81 games so the projection has him playing 158 games and 46 HR but his BA and all other average stats do not change.

It's a very rudimentary projection that I rarely look at.

Fyrestorm3 · 10-30-2013, 05:49 PM

Just to re-post what I said in the other thread...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

Considering that season projections are simply what the player is "on pace for", it makes perfect sense to me - if a player has 28 hits in 100 at-bats through a third of the season (a .280 average), then his projections for the season should be 300 at-bats with 84 hits (a .280 average). Same goes for all "percentage" stats - SLG, OBP, ERA, WHIP, BABIP... if a guy's done something 30% of the time to a certain point in the season, there's no reason to assume he's suddenly going to start doing it 50% of the time.

Bluenoser · 10-30-2013, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jays_Fan

I accidently posted this in my previous question So I figured a new thread was more appropriate:

Stat Projection (WHIP AVG etc...) Behaving Oddly?
Hey Folks

New question:

Im noticing in my fictional league that my projections seem a tad wanky.

Eg: For a Starting Pitcher, the Games started and win/loss seem normal.

But when it comes to WHIP and the like.. even late in a season, the projection is either exactly what his actual WHIP is or like .01 off.

For batters its similar for AVG OPS etc... This is across all teams and players.

Is there something wonky going on?

I has JUST started a new league so to troubleshoot I just uninstalled the game, deleted folders etc, re-installed and then Set the league back up. Same problem.

I know its hard to explain and maybe there's no problem at all and I'm just blowing it out of proportion.

I can provide some screenshots if it will help.

Thanks fellow GM's
Jays_Fan is online now Report Post

This

olivertheorem · 10-30-2013, 09:11 PM

This is why I'd like a legit player projection model in the game that DOES take into account past performance. If nothing else, gives stats-only players a better way of guesstimating how a potential trade target will do the rest of the way.

Even if it's just MARCEL, give me something!

RchW · 10-30-2013, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

This is why I'd like a legit player projection model in the game that DOES take into account past performance. If nothing else, gives stats-only players a better way of guesstimating how a potential trade target will do the rest of the way.

Even if it's just MARCEL, give me something!

I'm not dismissing your desire, I support it. Just never thought of that collection of numbers on the player page as a projection model.

Fyrestorm3 · 10-30-2013, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I'm not dismissing your desire, I support it. Just never though of that collection of numbers on the player page as a projection model.

This, exactly. It's just like a commentator mentioning that a guy is "on pace for 40 home runs this year." It's useful information, but it's not an actual projection.

olivertheorem · 10-31-2013, 10:16 PM

Oh, I know that line isn't a true projection model. I just want one and wanted to take the opportunity to say so again.

10-30-2013, 04:24 PM	#1
Jays_Fan Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9	Stat Projection (WHIP AVG etc...) Behaving Oddly? I accidently posted this in my previous question So I figured a new thread was more appropriate: Stat Projection (WHIP AVG etc...) Behaving Oddly? Hey Folks New question: Im noticing in my fictional league that my projections seem a tad wanky. Eg: For a Starting Pitcher, the Games started and win/loss seem normal. But when it comes to WHIP and the like.. even late in a season, the projection is either exactly what his actual WHIP is or like .01 off. For batters its similar for AVG OPS etc... This is across all teams and players. Is there something wonky going on? I has JUST started a new league so to troubleshoot I just uninstalled the game, deleted folders etc, re-installed and then Set the league back up. Same problem. I know its hard to explain and maybe there's no problem at all and I'm just blowing it out of proportion. I can provide some screenshots if it will help. Thanks fellow GM's Jays_Fan is online now Report Post

10-30-2013, 05:15 PM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Do you mean the projected stats on the player page? If so then nothing is wrong. The projection really only applies to counting stats. For example I have a player who has hit 23 HR in my teams first 81 games. He has played 79 of 81 games so the projection has him playing 158 games and 46 HR but his BA and all other average stats do not change. It's a very rudimentary projection that I rarely look at. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

10-30-2013, 05:13 PM	#2
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	There's nothing wrong, in my estimation. The projections are all based on current stats. So, if a player is hitting .333 through the first two games of the season, believe it or not...his projection will be .333 for the season. The reason the win/loss and games started seems "normal" is because those are "counting" stats, or stats that can go nowhere but up. For example, let's say a hitter hits two home runs over the course of the first two games of the season. Assuming it's a 162 game season, his projected home run output for the season, on that day, will be 162. At the time, it may seem outlandish, but that's mathematically accurate. I don't know if this makes any sense...the bottom line is that averages (BA, WHIP, even ERA) are difficult to project because so many factors come into play.

10-30-2013, 09:11 PM	#6
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	This is why I'd like a legit player projection model in the game that DOES take into account past performance. If nothing else, gives stats-only players a better way of guesstimating how a potential trade target will do the rest of the way. Even if it's just MARCEL, give me something!

10-31-2013, 10:16 PM	#9
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Oh, I know that line isn't a true projection model. I just want one and wanted to take the opportunity to say so again.