What are your general IP or AB Thresholds for Advancing Players?

[American_Ernesider]

I was looking to hear from you on what your preferred innings pitch or at bats that you like to have a prospect to have before you feel comfortable advancing?

Thanks.

[battists]

Originally Posted by American_Ernesider

I was looking to hear from you on what your preferred innings pitch or at bats that you like to have a prospect to have before you feel comfortable advancing?

Thanks.

I think for it depends on:

• How much are they dominating at their current level?
• How consistently are they dominating?
• How old are they?

I tend to be conservative, so people who are tearing the cover off the ball / totally unhittable usually need to have close to a half a season before I will consider moving them. (I usually check every month though.)

Players who are solid at their current level, I'm likely to keep them where they are for at least a full season. "Solid" meaning, something like a guy hitting .265 with some pop, or a pitcher with a FIP in the neighborhood of 3.5 or something.

Players who are playing somewhat sub-par at their current level I leave until they start performing better.

Players who are awful get demoted, or if they are above a certain age, they get cut.

Just my two cents though. And of course, all of this assumes there is somewhere to move them to that won't displace someone else who deserves playing time.

[jpeters1734]

i typically wait 100 IP and 300 PA

[Wingedlion14]

I tend to draft highschoolers almost exclusively, so top prospects tend to spend a year at each level and reach the bigs at around 23 unless they're late bloomers. If somebody is absolutely raking (like .330, hitting tons of HRs if they're a power hitter, ERA and FIP under 2, etc), then I'll have my scout take a look at them and then see if their ratings are above average for that level.

[IsaacR]

I'm very aggressive, following an "when they're ready" approach. I sometimes have draft picks make the bigs the same year they're drafted, and I have full minors.

[Trebro]

I don't use IP or AB as a guide. It's almost always 1yr per level, sometimes 1.5 if they did not do well but are still a prospect/high pick/young.

For those that go into a year 2 at same level, if they pick it up in early going of year two (first two months), then I will promote, if there's space.

I never promote to bench, unless it's a total non-prospect (i.e. 24 year old AA guy who can back up all 3 OF positions, so he "promotes" to AAA).

[BBGiovanni]

I do as others here do, I tend to think a half season is the bare minimum. If the guy is raking, the scout says move him up, and there is room at the level above, up he goes.

I also tend to mimic pro teams, in that I skip low-A assignments for college kids or will skip guys who do very well in rookie or short season ball straight up to High A. I almost never rush players, except the hardcoded real life rookies who seem to be ready early all the time.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by American_Ernesider

I was looking to hear from you on what your preferred innings pitch or at bats that you like to have a prospect to have before you feel comfortable advancing?

Thanks.

It depends on how well they do. I'd never advance anyone based on IP or AB.

[American_Ernesider]

Originally Posted by RchW

It depends on how well they do. I'd never advance anyone based on IP or AB.

I should have clarified. I meant in terms of getting a fair sample size or for development purposes. I didn't mean to imply just advancing on that criteria alone.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by American_Ernesider

I should have clarified. I meant in terms of getting a fair sample size or for development purposes. I didn't mean to imply just advancing on that criteria alone.

100 IP and 300 PA

[ThePretender]

Guess I'm in the minority. I find minor league stats irrelevant and just go by ratings. No set guidelines. I find sometimes a guy will improve in ratings but might have a 600 OPS in AA for instance, but if I see his ratings improve to what I consider a AAA guy I promote him. I find the minor league #s are so random and not a good or accurate judge of whether a player is doing well or poorly.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Guess I'm in the minority. I find minor league stats irrelevant and just go by ratings. No set guidelines. I find sometimes a guy will improve in ratings but might have a 600 OPS in AA for instance, but if I see his ratings improve to what I consider a AAA guy I promote him. I find the minor league #s are so random and not a good or accurate judge of whether a player is doing well or poorly.

I couldn't disagree more. I don't think it's very fun to play with 100% accurate scouting. Even if I did, for some reason certain players will out play or under play to their ratings. There's also the cases where two players are rated the same and you need to make a decision between the two. Stats matter in the minors.

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

I couldn't disagree more. I don't think it's very fun to play with 100% accurate scouting. Even if I did, for some reason certain players will out play or under play to their ratings. There's also the cases where two players are rated the same and you need to make a decision between the two. Stats matter in the minors.

I play in online leagues without scouting. So my view differs from yours. Even if we played without scouting @ 100%, I'd never look at minor league numbers. I have friends tell me all the time look at X player he has a 900 OPS at a level, only to watch him decline for no reason. I don't find them predictive of anything, and I don't think the performances reflect the ratings of a player either.

There are definitely players that outperform their ratings, for whatever reason. The first guy that came to mind was one of my SPs who has the ratings of a mid rotation SP, but has gone 4 straight seasons averaging 4 WAR (and the one season he missed, with 3.7, he had a 170 ERA+). Had I gone by his minor league #s I would have never called him up. Another minor leaguer of mine had a 194/363/400 line in AAA this year, I called him up to the majors and he hit 333/422/564.

Whether scouting is accurate or not is your call, but I've just never found any consistency in terms of performance in minor league stats. It's why I could never play stats only (or ratings being so inaccurate) - I feel like the game randomly creates minor league #s.

[kingtut313]

It really depends on the player. If I have a guy who is a 2.5 star and hitting .250 after 15 games at A ball I will probably push him up. If there's a guy who is hitting .330 for 2 seasons at AA but his ratings are terrible for even his level, he will stay at AA.

[NoOne]

if you have ratings on, and you invest a bit into your minor league scouting, definitely depend more on scouting reports and development reports for promotions. half a season is a good time to evaluate prospects.

if all stats, rely more on per/stats, like per/9 or per/IP etc... age when drafted is key, too. college kids should zoom from rookie/a to AA in as few as 1.5 years (sometiems less, more often more). i'd focus on if he is getting hammered with K's or can't take a walk. power won't develop until AA/AAA/MLB typically - so, don't worry too much about that.

don't be a slave to any rule you make for yourself - just obey the good ones most of the time. if a player already has more than 1/2 a season of experience at that tier, time wouldn't be a major factor in the decision. scouting/development reports would be the key info.

don't worry about the statistics, so much. unless they are also coinciding with stagnation or loss of talent current and potential it's no big deal as far as development. if the ability is equal to the minor league tier, chalk it up to a very small sample size.

for a fully developed player, it takes ~1000ab for the batting average to normalize. there are plenty of links in these forums to pages that give all sorts of info on various stats and required sample size for any amount of confidence in what they tell you. factor in development and it's even more difficult to know - the data that is being accumulated isn't apples to apples. it has less integrity due to the more rapid change in ability.

trending upward and has the required ability => promote

borderline ability for next tier with stagnating development => let him simmer / consider promotion - you decide the demarcation line.

worse => consider demotion

use minimum contact / power / eye per minor league level for decisions. use existing players to hammer out a good estimate about minimum talent needed. be consistent for a fair amount of years (unless the current strategy results in a dumpster fire), then evaluate and make small adjustments (or major adjustments, !@$! $#@ Fire!). rinse and repeat.

[MikeS21]

My biggest problem is knowing when to cut a guy. It is usually pretty straightforward for guys who are 25 years old and still at A ball. But how much rope do you give a 19 or 20 year old who is still in Rookie ball or Short Season A ball? Every draft I have potential replacements for those guys.

The tendency is that over a few seasons, your minor leagues become younger and younger. You might start out with 90% of your AAA team > 25 years old. Within 3-4 years, 90% of my AAA roster is between 22 and 24 years old. That's certainly not true to life in most AAA teams.

How do you folks decide whether or not that 19 year old 28th round draft choice is a bust? What are your cut-off points where enough is enough?

[battists]

Honestly, for me, it's just the same as everyone is been discussing here. If I have a 20-year-old who has been floundering at low A for three years, and I have a new draftee coming up to take his place, it's basically up to whether I have space or not. If there's really nowhere to put the underperforming guy, and he has shown few signs of improvement, he is going to get cut.

[RchW]

I cull the entire minor leagues by age after the rule 5 draft.

What I mean is that 24-26 year olds in A or AA are gone unless blocked. I might keep a 26+ in AAA if he is needed at a particular position. Otherwise young players get priority.