Having trouble with player's potentials dropping

[lightzout18]

I have played three test games (3 seasons long) because this has happened to me many times before (a much bigger sample size) and I wanted to isolate the cause.

I traded for Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor in each, both 5 stars. One of the test games I hired all my minor league personal to make sure they were good with young players. I set my budget at $30,000,000 also.

Every time they dropped to like 3 star potential. This happens to me with all kinds of players and very rarely do my players pan out, especially my 5 star players.

Also, I will trade for players who are playing very well and when I get them they play poorly.

Also, does the development budget have a big impact or no?

Any advice?

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by lightzout18

I have played three test games (3 seasons long) because this has happened to me many times before (a much bigger sample size) and I wanted to isolate the cause.

I traded for Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor in each, both 5 stars. One of the test games I hired all my minor league personal to make sure they were good with young players. I set my budget at $30,000,000 also.

Every time they dropped to like 3 star potential. This happens to me with all kinds of players and very rarely do my players pan out, especially my 5 star players.

Also, I will trade for players who are playing very well and when I get them they play poorly.

Also, does the development budget have a big impact or no?

Any advice?

potential can always drop, especially in development years. it's normal and true to life. always assume when you draft a player it will go down a bit. a drafted top-prospect is typically overvalued.

you can exascerbate this problem by letting them stew too long at a perticular minor league level, or if you rush them too soon to the next minor league level. i know. it's tricky. most importantly, promote based on ratings, not stats. don't worry too much about minor league stats. set minimums you intend to use for each tier - use existing players to flesh out where the down/arrow starts to show up.

if the potential is tanking over several reports, see if either of those two things make sense for that player... it's also possible he is just a dud (bad work ethic/general personality among other reasons like bad luck). still keep them around, a late-blooming highly regarded prospect is a good thing. (players develop until 27 or 28 check manual, after that it works by different rules)

i've seen a top prospect's potential drop and then miraculously spring back up by his 6th year in minors. you just can't expect it to happen, but you do want to try.

Think of a high development budget as a greater probability of consistent development. so, yes, it is important. it will not turn a 50pot to a 60pot. prospects will always fail, but less often if you invest more in the system.

i only mentioned personality a bit. it's also vital to consistently positive development. coach's play a role too. i would suggest 'controlling' managers in your minor league system. they create the best environment for young players (less than 10 years mlb service - per the manual). make sure they handle rookies and players well - you can ignore handling vets in the minors, obviously.

[BIG17EASY]

I second everything NoOne said and just want to add two things. First, the Talent Change Randomness can affect this, as well. But it's far from the sole reason. The main reason is, as NoOne said, prospects almost always decline in potential, which is true to life. For every Carlos Correa who lives up to the hype, there's a Dustin Ackley who is a big disappointment, and lots of guys who turn out to be decent players, but not the stars they were predicted to be.

Also, pay more attention to how they're performing than how their ratings change. If they're playing well, keep progressing them through the minors like you would if they were still a 5-star prospect. Your scout may simply be wrong in his assessment.

['94 EXPOS]

The guys above nailed it. The more you play the more comfortable you will be with making decisions and the more comfortable you will be with how the game behaves.

On a side note, the best example of a highly hyped prospect who turned out to 'just' be good was Cliff Floyd. He was supposed to be the next Frank Thomas. Turns out he was Cliff Floyd!

[Hannibal05]

Originally Posted by lightzout18

I have played three test games (3 seasons long) because this has happened to me many times before (a much bigger sample size) and I wanted to isolate the cause.

I traded for Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor in each, both 5 stars. One of the test games I hired all my minor league personal to make sure they were good with young players. I set my budget at $30,000,000 also.

Every time they dropped to like 3 star potential. This happens to me with all kinds of players and very rarely do my players pan out, especially my 5 star players.

Also, I will trade for players who are playing very well and when I get them they play poorly.

Also, does the development budget have a big impact or no?

Any advice?

It happens. Corey Seager, for example, never really dropped in my league and ended up with over 3000 hits.
I had a guy who tore it up for the first 12 years of he career, 2300 hits, 1100 stolen bases on his way to breaking Henderson's stolen base record and many other records. I end up singing him to a big contract and the very first year of his contract his stats drop off the face of the earth. A few years later I have to bench him he's so bad. He can still run like a young Henderson but he can't get on base. So Henderson's stolen base record and many other records he was supposed to top are safe as can be. It happens.

Look at Matt Kemp in real life. The year he should have won the MVP over juice Braun he was entering the prime of his career but he never lived up to that and still isn't. He doesn't suck but he's not the superstar he was supposed to be.