Hate to be that guy but...

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 12:21 PM

...Why, when I start a 2015 historical with neutralized stats and three year double weighted recalc, do Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, and Ryan Goins all suck tremendously defensively? I know the ratings come from the stats, but all of these guys have not only tremendous reputations, but also metrics that back up those reputations for defensive excellence, and they're terribad in game. Kinda ruins things from my perspective, especially for the 2015 Blue Jays. I know defense is the toughest thing to get right, but these six are stellar (in some cases off the charts spectacular) defenders, and they should at bare minimum be adequate defensively, not abysmal like they are.

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 12:55 PM

How is this fixable? Ideas? It needs to be something real that could be added as part of fielding ratings 1871-2015. Reputation does not matter as everybody has an opinion on that.

It is kind of like the OF arm ratings challenge. The best arms get no OF assists since no one is dumb enough to run on them.

David Watts · 04-02-2016, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

...Why, when I start a 2015 historical with neutralized stats and three year double weighted recalc, do Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, and Ryan Goins all suck tremendously defensively? I know the ratings come from the stats, but all of these guys have not only tremendous reputations, but also metrics that back up those reputations for defensive excellence, and they're terribad in game. Kinda ruins things from my perspective, especially for the 2015 Blue Jays. I know defense is the toughest thing to get right, but these six are stellar (in some cases off the charts spectacular) defenders, and they should at bare minimum be adequate defensively, not abysmal like they are.

real stats instead of neutered, Donaldson and Simmons are 70 out of 80. The rest are all really bad. I remember when 17 first came out, guys were through the roof defensively. That was fixed, but I wonder if the fix went too far? Wonder what Brooks Robinson or Mark Belanger get rated?

pstrickert · 04-02-2016, 01:10 PM

How does 3-yr recalc operate when there are no stats for 2016? I'm just wondering myself.

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 01:15 PM

Troy is between 6% and 11% better than average in the neutralized data depending on the trait measured. That should not equate to tremendous suckage.

Machado had a bad fielding year in 2015, prior to that he was 14 - 30% better than average

Donaldson is also better than average but not by much.

Please be a little more specific.

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 02:03 PM

I added weighting to 3 year recalc which makes the noted players a bit better and the ratings now take into account whether a player is getting better or declining. Only 3 year recalceraters will be affected by this.

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

Troy is between 6% and 11% better than average in the neutralized data depending on the trait measured. That should not equate to tremendous suckage.

Machado had a bad fielding year in 2015, prior to that he was 14 - 30% better than average

Donaldson is also better than average but not by much.

Please be a little more specific.

Who's Troy? Tulowitzki? He's fine in this. I'm using DRS from BB-Ref and UZR from Fan Graphs as the basis for this.

Donaldson: 2013: +12 DRS, +9.9 UZR
2014: +20 DRS, +15.5 UZR
2015: +11 DRS, +9.2 UZR

Machado: 2013: +35 DRS, +31.2 UZR
2014: +6 DRS, +6.5 UZR
2015: +14 DRS, +8.4 UZR (a bit of time at SS, but I didn't include it)

Simmons: 2013: +41 DRS, +24.6 UZR
2014: +28 DRS, +15.5 UZR
2015: +25 DRS, +17.3 UZR

Kiermaier played 1.0 inning of defense in 2013 and as such what he did is irrelevant:
2014: RF: +14 DRS, +16.0 UZR, CF: +1 DRS, +1.7 UZR
2015: CF: +42 DRS, +30.0 UZR

Pillar: 2013: LF: +1 DRS, +2.8 UZR, RF (8.0 IP): +1 DRS, +0.4 UZR
2014: LF: -1 DRS, +0.0 UZR, CF: +3 DRS, +0.4 UZR, RF (35.0 IP): +3 DRS, +2.9 UZR
2015: LF: +8 DRS, +1.5 UZR, CF: +14 DRS, +14.0 UZR, RF (26.0 IP): 0 DRS, -0.3 UZR

Goins: 2013: 2B: +12 DRS, +6.2 UZR, SS (10.0 IP): 0 DRS, -0.2 UZR
2014: 2B: +3 DRS, +1.4 UZR, SS (86.0 IP): +2 DRS, +2.2 UZR
2015: 2B: +4 DRS, +1.2 UZR, SS: +8 DRS, +2.3 UZR

Goins also had 4.0 IP at 3B and 20.0 IP split between LF and RF that I ignored.

Please understand I'm not doing this to be a jerk. Just doing it because on first glance it was a bit jarring to see these very good defensive players rated lower than they possibly should be. I have no idea how to fix it, and I see that you've made an adjustment that may help with what I'm seeing. Thank you for that and I'll keep checking for more.

Fielding, as I said before, is the most difficult aspect of the game to get right. It's very tricky because sometimes measurements will show guys on the plus side of the ledger and sometimes the same guys will be on the minus side. It's a very, very fine line and most of the guys are as they should be. These guys just stood out to me. Screenshots of Donaldson, Machado, Simmons, Kiermaier, and Pillar are below with 20-80 ratings:

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 02:57 PM

And now Goins (because maximum of five files):

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 03:20 PM

Making things more better is always a good thing. I don't know why I did not think about weighting years ago. Don't know if I was in time for this patch. If not it will be in the next one. If it did not one year recalc might be better for the nonce.

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

I added weighting to 3 year recalc which makes the noted players a bit better and the ratings now take into account whether a player is getting better or declining. Only 3 year recalceraters will be affected by this.

So this will affect all players either good or bad right? I can go and root around and find more guys if you want, both of the overrated and underrated variety.

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 04:02 PM

No rooting necessary.

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 05:17 PM

Did not make this patch. It will be in the next one.

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 07:10 PM

Thank you. You're the best.

actionjackson · 04-02-2016, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pstrickert

How does 3-yr recalc operate when there are no stats for 2016? I'm just wondering myself.

That's a good question. I don't have the answer to that. Maybe it takes 2014/2015/2015?

Spritze · 04-02-2016, 10:39 PM

In 2016 it uses 2013, 2014, 2015.

The big Q would be 2017?

Markus Heinsohn · 04-03-2016, 05:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

Did not make this patch. It will be in the next one.

We will release a fixed database file in the next couple of days. Still a few issues to work out (catchers are somewhat screwy in 2014 and 2015).

04-02-2016, 12:21 PM	#1
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,163	Hate to be that guy but... ...Why, when I start a 2015 historical with neutralized stats and three year double weighted recalc, do Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, and Ryan Goins all suck tremendously defensively? I know the ratings come from the stats, but all of these guys have not only tremendous reputations, but also metrics that back up those reputations for defensive excellence, and they're terribad in game. Kinda ruins things from my perspective, especially for the 2015 Blue Jays. I know defense is the toughest thing to get right, but these six are stellar (in some cases off the charts spectacular) defenders, and they should at bare minimum be adequate defensively, not abysmal like they are. Last edited by actionjackson; 04-02-2016 at 12:45 PM.

04-02-2016, 12:55 PM	#2
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	How is this fixable? Ideas? It needs to be something real that could be added as part of fielding ratings 1871-2015. Reputation does not matter as everybody has an opinion on that. It is kind of like the OF arm ratings challenge. The best arms get no OF assists since no one is dumb enough to run on them. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-02-2016, 01:15 PM	#5
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	Troy is between 6% and 11% better than average in the neutralized data depending on the trait measured. That should not equate to tremendous suckage. Machado had a bad fielding year in 2015, prior to that he was 14 - 30% better than average Donaldson is also better than average but not by much. Please be a little more specific. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it! Last edited by Spritze; 04-02-2016 at 01:26 PM.

04-02-2016, 02:03 PM	#6
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	I added weighting to 3 year recalc which makes the noted players a bit better and the ratings now take into account whether a player is getting better or declining. Only 3 year recalceraters will be affected by this. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-02-2016, 02:57 PM	#8
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,163	And now Goins (because maximum of five files): Attached Images

04-02-2016, 01:10 PM	#4
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 16,425	How does 3-yr recalc operate when there are no stats for 2016? I'm just wondering myself.

04-02-2016, 03:20 PM	#9
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	Making things more better is always a good thing. I don't know why I did not think about weighting years ago. Don't know if I was in time for this patch. If not it will be in the next one. If it did not one year recalc might be better for the nonce. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-02-2016, 04:02 PM	#11
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	No rooting necessary. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-02-2016, 05:17 PM	#12
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	Did not make this patch. It will be in the next one. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-02-2016, 07:10 PM	#13
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,163	Thank you. You're the best.

04-02-2016, 10:39 PM	#15
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	In 2016 it uses 2013, 2014, 2015. The big Q would be 2017? __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!