Batter vs Pitcher Matchups

Timofmars · 03-06-2018, 10:11 PM

Does anyone have any idea if there are any matchups between batters and pitchers that can give better results on average, depending on the specific distribution of skills of the 2 players, or other attributes, besides the more obvious left vs right stuff.

For example, I suppose if a hitter has no power at all, then much of the pitcher's movement ability would end up making less difference, since the batter wasn't going to hit any home runs anyway. Likewise, a terrible eye on the batter might make a pitcher's exceptional control go to waste.

But what about more average situations? Would a batter with 100/100 power look like a 50/100 power hitter when facing a 100/100 movement pitcher?

From my research in the editor, it seems that above average power adds more HRs per ability point than each ability point below average. But for pitchers, movement reduces HRs in a more linear fashion. So if the interaction between the batter and pitcher is sort of 2 separate calculations added together, then a 100/100 power batter facing a 100/100 movement pitcher should result in more HRs than a 50/50 batter meeting a 50/50 pitcher. And if this is correct, then I would think there isn't really an opportunity to consider this kind of matchup when selecting your lineup against a particular pitcher, since only overall ability matters.

But if the batter/pitcher interaction is not so separate, then matchups become a possible factor to consider. For example, a high movement pitcher would have a larger effect in reducing total HRs against a high power hitter compared to an average power hitter. Or an average power hitter should hit like a high power hitter against a weak movement pitcher.

However, I suspect this is not the case, since the editor seems to show that a pitcher's movement affects the expected number of HRs given up linearly.

Timofmars · 03-06-2018, 10:12 PM

Despite what I said above, maybe there is still some lineup considerations to make depending on the opposing pitcher. For example, when facing a pitcher with great stuff and control but poor movement, you can expect it will be hard to get on base and to get multiple consecutive hits to move runners around, so you can slightly favor OBP to try to get as many runners on for when a HR comes. And reduce your preference for speedy players.

Or if stuff is low, but movement and control are high, the positives are fewer strike outs (more balls in play), more hits, and negatives are fewer HRs and walks. So you might want to favor speedy players, and be more aggressive in tactics like stealing, hit and run, and sacrifice bunts, since you can't rely as much on HRs, and there's less chance of walks negating the positive effects of your efforts to advance runners.

Or if control is the low and stuff + movement are high, you can expect more walks, but difficulty hitting them in. Stealing and sac bunts might be less valuable since there's an increased chance of walks. With lower chance of hitting, but more runners on base from walks, it may be more important to get more out of hits you do get, so maybe favor Gap and Power slightly more over contact (compared to your normal standards). And slightly favor hitting ability over speed, since speed is less valuable when walks are more common. And favor eye just a bit more than usual, since any extra bases gained by hits are more likely than usual to be followed by a walk, thus negating some of the benefit of hits.

NoOne · 03-12-2018, 05:12 PM

i'd look at resulting hr/9 to determine if tehy are better/worse against power hitters, i guess... then from that shortlist of pitchers that have these common results... look for common threads of their ratings.

rinse/repeat for various results that you determin as the threshold, then whether there are commonalities between the ratings and results. use that to make decisions in those contexts etc.

multiple independent factors will be involved in most aspects. you'd have to recognize all the combinations that can cause this result. all of the pitchig ratings will be important, except which pitches weren't thrown that pitch. velo, move, gb% etc etc.. you'll need a regression for each situation you test.

usually your roster eliminates any tough decision like this. it's difficult to be deep in meaningful talent. when you are choosing between to lesser talents, it's really splitting hairs beyond the basics... is one guy stronger? is it an rbi situation? lefty vs righty? etc.

how often do you need this type of detail for a real decision, not theoretical? i just mean it's going to be a decision that is usually obvious to make, and if it's that close it'll be splitting hairs and not much gain even if you pick "correctly".

not trying to dissuade gaining knowledge - EVER. but, maybe the amount of effort and time might not be worth it without some personal reason augmenting need. like just pure curiosity.. and i understand that reasoning too, fwiw.

either way oyu have to draw aline in teh sand for some result realted to what you are tring to mine the data for, and then compare those that fall over that threshold... (good or bad, not important, merely relative to what you are learning at the moment)

Timofmars · 03-14-2018, 05:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

how often do you need this type of detail for a real decision, not theoretical? i just mean it's going to be a decision that is usually obvious to make, and if it's that close it'll be splitting hairs and not much gain even if you pick "correctly".

I would think most of the time this information would be useful is in pitcher changes and pinch hitters. Like if an opposing pitcher is weak in one aspect, maybe it would be better to using a pinch hitter that is excellent in the opposite batter rating. So weak movement pitcher, use the best power you have, or poor control, use the best eye. And likewise when pitching, maybe you would bring on the pitcher that best "covers" the batter's strengths.

Also, it could impact your decisions when choosing which players to acquire in trades, etc.

Though I think it's most likely that the batter's and pitcher's ratings interact on a mostly linear or additive basis, rather than there being favorable matchups, besides the L/R matchup.

03-06-2018, 10:11 PM	#1
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	Batter vs Pitcher Matchups Does anyone have any idea if there are any matchups between batters and pitchers that can give better results on average, depending on the specific distribution of skills of the 2 players, or other attributes, besides the more obvious left vs right stuff. For example, I suppose if a hitter has no power at all, then much of the pitcher's movement ability would end up making less difference, since the batter wasn't going to hit any home runs anyway. Likewise, a terrible eye on the batter might make a pitcher's exceptional control go to waste. But what about more average situations? Would a batter with 100/100 power look like a 50/100 power hitter when facing a 100/100 movement pitcher? From my research in the editor, it seems that above average power adds more HRs per ability point than each ability point below average. But for pitchers, movement reduces HRs in a more linear fashion. So if the interaction between the batter and pitcher is sort of 2 separate calculations added together, then a 100/100 power batter facing a 100/100 movement pitcher should result in more HRs than a 50/50 batter meeting a 50/50 pitcher. And if this is correct, then I would think there isn't really an opportunity to consider this kind of matchup when selecting your lineup against a particular pitcher, since only overall ability matters. But if the batter/pitcher interaction is not so separate, then matchups become a possible factor to consider. For example, a high movement pitcher would have a larger effect in reducing total HRs against a high power hitter compared to an average power hitter. Or an average power hitter should hit like a high power hitter against a weak movement pitcher. However, I suspect this is not the case, since the editor seems to show that a pitcher's movement affects the expected number of HRs given up linearly.

03-06-2018, 10:12 PM	#2
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	Despite what I said above, maybe there is still some lineup considerations to make depending on the opposing pitcher. For example, when facing a pitcher with great stuff and control but poor movement, you can expect it will be hard to get on base and to get multiple consecutive hits to move runners around, so you can slightly favor OBP to try to get as many runners on for when a HR comes. And reduce your preference for speedy players. Or if stuff is low, but movement and control are high, the positives are fewer strike outs (more balls in play), more hits, and negatives are fewer HRs and walks. So you might want to favor speedy players, and be more aggressive in tactics like stealing, hit and run, and sacrifice bunts, since you can't rely as much on HRs, and there's less chance of walks negating the positive effects of your efforts to advance runners. Or if control is the low and stuff + movement are high, you can expect more walks, but difficulty hitting them in. Stealing and sac bunts might be less valuable since there's an increased chance of walks. With lower chance of hitting, but more runners on base from walks, it may be more important to get more out of hits you do get, so maybe favor Gap and Power slightly more over contact (compared to your normal standards). And slightly favor hitting ability over speed, since speed is less valuable when walks are more common. And favor eye just a bit more than usual, since any extra bases gained by hits are more likely than usual to be followed by a walk, thus negating some of the benefit of hits. Last edited by Timofmars; 03-06-2018 at 10:16 PM.

03-12-2018, 05:12 PM	#3
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,227	i'd look at resulting hr/9 to determine if tehy are better/worse against power hitters, i guess... then from that shortlist of pitchers that have these common results... look for common threads of their ratings. rinse/repeat for various results that you determin as the threshold, then whether there are commonalities between the ratings and results. use that to make decisions in those contexts etc. multiple independent factors will be involved in most aspects. you'd have to recognize all the combinations that can cause this result. all of the pitchig ratings will be important, except which pitches weren't thrown that pitch. velo, move, gb% etc etc.. you'll need a regression for each situation you test. usually your roster eliminates any tough decision like this. it's difficult to be deep in meaningful talent. when you are choosing between to lesser talents, it's really splitting hairs beyond the basics... is one guy stronger? is it an rbi situation? lefty vs righty? etc. how often do you need this type of detail for a real decision, not theoretical? i just mean it's going to be a decision that is usually obvious to make, and if it's that close it'll be splitting hairs and not much gain even if you pick "correctly". not trying to dissuade gaining knowledge - EVER. but, maybe the amount of effort and time might not be worth it without some personal reason augmenting need. like just pure curiosity.. and i understand that reasoning too, fwiw. either way oyu have to draw aline in teh sand for some result realted to what you are tring to mine the data for, and then compare those that fall over that threshold... (good or bad, not important, merely relative to what you are learning at the moment)