"Hardest" team to manage in OOTP19

[Bobble]

I've done this for the last couple of versions so I thought I'd trot this out again for this year. In summary, I'm looking at predicted record, prospect ranking, team payroll, and market size and factoring them together to rank which team has the toughest job ahead of them for the near future. I'm calling it "BobbleValue". Higher BobbleValue is a more difficult challenge. The table:

Team		W	L	Gms	BA	BR	TOTAL*PAYROLL	PayRate	Market	BobbleValue
Marlins		65	97	37	19	26	$82,962,142 	1.55	28.57	6889
Royals		69	93	33	29	30	$110,562,500 	2.14	7.25	5596
Mariners	81	81	21	30	25	$159,832,142 	3.49	6.49	5130
Giants		82	80	20	26	28	$193,272,777 	4.19	3.70	4354
Tigers		70	92	32	21	15	$122,120,000 	2.48	8.33	4128
Mets		81	81	21	27	29	$148,662,000 	3.32	4.41	4101
Orioles		75	87	27	17	20	$122,317,115 	2.84	8.06	4024
Rockies		79	83	23	20	21	$127,787,500 	2.93	7.69	3834
Diamondbacks	82	80	20	25	24	$125,520,000 	2.74	7.94	3782
Rangers		79	83	23	23	17	$140,724,166 	2.73	7.14	3355
Athletics	78	84	24	18	11	$50,698,333 	1.37	30.30	2625
Pirates		76	86	26	16	16	$77,074,999 	1.77	10.71	2408
Angels		84	78	18	14	18	$171,259,999 	3.71	4.81	2343
Twins		82	80	20	12	14	$115,150,000 	2.53	11.54	2237
Reds		72	90	30	9	9	$89,624,285 	2.16	13.04	2108
Indians		93	69	9	22	23	$129,332,765 	2.94	9.52	1837
Red Sox		93	69	9	24	22	$229,761,428 	4.23	3.92	1735
Nationals	90	72	12	15	19	$174,447,858 	3.77	4.57	1644
Cubs		94	68	8	28	27	$173,527,381 	3.81	3.70	1611
Brewers		78	84	24	11	7	$83,965,000 	2.00	10.00	1369
Rays		78	84	24	5	8	$71,613,332 	1.56	28.57	1301
Cardinals	87	75	15	13	13	$141,085,000 	2.81	5.04	1231
White Sox	66	96	36	4	2	$65,000,000 	1.64	27.78	936
Blue Jays	87	75	15	7	10	$155,097,523 	3.52	4.03	901
Phillies	74	88	28	6	6	$44,856,333 	1.00	23.26	810
Padres		73	89	29	3	4	$81,333,333 	1.52	16.67	629
Dodgers		94	68	8	8	5	$178,612,378 	3.55	3.55	347
Braves		72	90	30	1	1	$109,807,709 	2.15	12.77	231
Yankees		94	68	8	2	3	$157,870,357 	3.43	4.12	139
Astros		101	61	1	10	12	$151,001,170 	3.49	5.57	91

How the sausage is made:
Predicted wins were from Bleacher Report. Games Back = (max wins+1) - your wins. I took prospect rankings from both Baseball America (BA) and Bleacher Report (BR) and took an average. PayRate = Your Payroll/Min Payroll. Market was exported from OOTP, I took Market times Fan Interest, 3000 divided by that number, then took the square root -- all that to put market on a reasonable footing with the rest of the factors. BobbleValue is GamesBack*Prospect*Payrate*(Market^.5). I wanted to make payroll and market less significant than winning and prospect list.

A team predicted to have the most wins, with the highest ranked organizational talent, with the lowest payroll, and the largest market would be 1*1*1*1 = BobbleValue of 1. A team that should finish 30 games below the best team, with the worst prospects, a payroll 5 times the min, and the smallest market would be 30*32*5*(32^.5) = BobbleValue of 27153.

tl;dr: Anywho, Marlins are a dumpster fire just like last season. I tried that in OOTP18 and didn't get too far. I think I'll try my hand at the Royals.

Thoughts? Disagree with the rankings?

[Cod]

I hope the Marlins' ownership group in the game is just as stupid as their real-life counterparts (shed payroll, raise ticket prices, etc.). Then I can start an expansion team in Miami and steal all their fans.

In all seriousness, I think the Mariners would be fun to play since they have the longest playoff drought in all of professional sports. On top of that, you have a pretty high payroll with no superstars that can put you over the top...so you're forced to make some moves (either rebuild or get cash for one big free agent).

[Caporegime]

It blows my mind that any team could have a lower payroll than the Marlins at this point, a team that's seemingly being held together by a strip of lint-riddled adhesive tape and a soggy gauze pad.

[rjl518]

Originally Posted by Caporegime

It blows my mind that any team could have a lower payroll than the Marlins at this point, a team that's seemingly being held together by a strip of lint-riddled adhesive tape and a soggy gauze pad.

Not easy being a Marlins fan down here.

[NoOne]

is the new owner any better?

or is he tighter than a ... <nsfw censor nsfw>

[rjl518]

Originally Posted by NoOne

is the new owner any better?

or is he tighter than a ... <nsfw censor nsfw>

well...lets see.
all of the good Marlins players have been traded away and now, the Marlins are a Triple AAA team playing in the Majors.
but, that being said, have to give Jeter some time.
we will let you know in a few years and a few losing seasons down here.
Good thing I'm a Mets fan first!

[Cod]

Originally Posted by Caporegime

It blows my mind that any team could have a lower payroll than the Marlins at this point, a team that's seemingly being held together by a strip of lint-riddled adhesive tape and a soggy gauze pad.

Roughly 50% of their payroll is on 4 mediocre (at best) players:

• Martin Prado - $13.5 mil
• Wei-Yin Chen - $12.6 mil
• Starlin Castro - $10.8 mil
• Brad Zeigler - $9 mil

Also, another 15% of their payroll is paying a Texas Rangers pitcher...Edinson Volquez ($13 mil).

[itsmb8]

I find it shocking that Milwaukee and Miami are still similar in payroll... Also, that 78-84 projected record is absolute BS IMO.

[progen]

Fightin Phils payroll will increase since they signed Arrieta to 25m/year for three years!

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by progen

Fightin Phils payroll will increase since they signed Arrieta to 25m/year for three years!

Yeah, maybe I'll update this weekend and repost. Thanks for the reminder.

[Mr. Marlin]

The rebuild of the Marlins was made necessary by two things, the trades from a dew years ago that brought Dee Gordon and two other guys who are no even playing affiliated ball any more for three prospects Hatcher, Hernandez, and Barnes, all reliable major leaguers now. Gordon is long gone so that's over. Nathan Evoldi and two other guys were traded for Marin Prado is is decent but I'd rather have Evoldi back. The drained the cream of the farm system for a team that won 150 games in two season because there is no depth left in the system Someone gets hurt and you're done.

Then Jose Fernandez died. They tried to replace him with Chen but he's done and overpaid to boot. There is exactly 0 major league talent playing above short season ball. And little enough at that level.

Add to that an ownership that has done every imaginable thing to infuriate the few fans that do come and the fish soup is pretty rotten.

So the new ownership has a choice, throw good money after bad (remember the team is some $400M in debt the day Jeter walks in the door) and maybe go from 77 wins to 85 (still won't get you there) or blow it up and start over. They made the right choice. The reason this has a negative connotation here is it's been done so often out of cheapness that no one here associates fire sales with future success. Everyone forgot already the end result of the Great Fire Sale of 1998 was the 2003 WS.

As for me, I'm cutting the new owners some slack. I'll still be there in my seat for every game this year, and next. But if another fire sale follows this one like that cheap b-----d Loria did over and over then I'm done.

[Phatman]

Originally Posted by Mr. Marlin

The rebuild of the Marlins was made necessary by two things, the trades from a dew years ago that brought Dee Gordon and two other guys who are no even playing affiliated ball any more for three prospects Hatcher, Hernandez, and Barnes, all reliable major leaguers now. Gordon is long gone so that's over. Nathan Evoldi and two other guys were traded for Marin Prado is is decent but I'd rather have Evoldi back. The drained the cream of the farm system for a team that won 150 games in two season because there is no depth left in the system Someone gets hurt and you're done.

Then Jose Fernandez died. They tried to replace him with Chen but he's done and overpaid to boot. There is exactly 0 major league talent playing above short season ball. And little enough at that level.

Add to that an ownership that has done every imaginable thing to infuriate the few fans that do come and the fish soup is pretty rotten.

So the new ownership has a choice, throw good money after bad (remember the team is some $400M in debt the day Jeter walks in the door) and maybe go from 77 wins to 85 (still won't get you there) or blow it up and start over. They made the right choice. The reason this has a negative connotation here is it's been done so often out of cheapness that no one here associates fire sales with future success. Everyone forgot already the end result of the Great Fire Sale of 1998 was the 2003 WS.

As for me, I'm cutting the new owners some slack. I'll still be there in my seat for every game this year, and next. But if another fire sale follows this one like that cheap b-----d Loria did over and over then I'm done.

See ya there opening day. I’ll be behind home plate.

[rjl518]

Originally Posted by Mr. Marlin

The rebuild of the Marlins was made necessary by two things, the trades from a dew years ago that brought Dee Gordon and two other guys who are no even playing affiliated ball any more for three prospects Hatcher, Hernandez, and Barnes, all reliable major leaguers now. Gordon is long gone so that's over. Nathan Evoldi and two other guys were traded for Marin Prado is is decent but I'd rather have Evoldi back. The drained the cream of the farm system for a team that won 150 games in two season because there is no depth left in the system Someone gets hurt and you're done.

Then Jose Fernandez died. They tried to replace him with Chen but he's done and overpaid to boot. There is exactly 0 major league talent playing above short season ball. And little enough at that level.

Add to that an ownership that has done every imaginable thing to infuriate the few fans that do come and the fish soup is pretty rotten.

So the new ownership has a choice, throw good money after bad (remember the team is some $400M in debt the day Jeter walks in the door) and maybe go from 77 wins to 85 (still won't get you there) or blow it up and start over. They made the right choice. The reason this has a negative connotation here is it's been done so often out of cheapness that no one here associates fire sales with future success. Everyone forgot already the end result of the Great Fire Sale of 1998 was the 2003 WS.

As for me, I'm cutting the new owners some slack. I'll still be there in my seat for every game this year, and next. But if another fire sale follows this one like that cheap b-----d Loria did over and over then I'm done.

Mr. Marlin, you read my mind!

[Mr. Marlin]

Just as an example of why I think Bruce Sherman, Derek Jeter, and Mike Hill are doing the right thing, Fan Graphs has re-evaluated the Marlins player development organization:



https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-...miami-marlins/

So to answer Bobble's question and bring the conversation back on topic (since I'm the one that derailed it) The Marlins are not really that big a challenge. There will be no joy this year but if you are their GM and make a good move with Starlin Castro and JT Realmuto this season the future is bright.

I think the hardest team to manage would be the Tampa Bay Rays. You would be revenue challenged with a team that is good but not playoff good.There are nice pieces in AA & AAA but as soon as you bring them up you have to sell a veteran you won't be able to resign. It's like running on a treadmill. You are busting your butt but never getting anywhere.

Edit: Or the Seattle Mariners. Their window is closing and they will soon be in a rebuild. It would be a challenge to take a team through a rebuild over a few season and see what you can make of it. Not a team that is coming out of one like the White Sox, Padres, Braves, Phillies, etc.

[Bobble]

I'm no expert on the Marlins but aren't most of the assets gone? Not a great farm system, a fanbase that has to be rebuilt (and I don't think that's easy in OOTP or in real life), and a ML team that is ... not good. Seems like a very long play to get them to the top.

I can't see the Rays being too bad. They have something like 6 top 100 prospects and most of those are in AAA. That sounds like the core of a young, inexpensive, good team right there if you manage it right.

[AllDayHalladay]

Fangraphs had a good article breaking down why the Brewers projection is at 78W. The "average" projection is off by 6 wins if i remember correctly so just think of it as 84-78 instead haha

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets...re-projection/

[5-4-3]

GMing the Marlins is easy. Whatever you do, in the past, the present, or the future, is always going to be better what the real Marlin FO did, are doing, or will do.

[LeiterFanatic]

I could live with the rebuilding if I thought it would eventually turn into a decent ML team in a few years. But to still see that King D-Bag Marlins Man (not our own Mr. Marlin, of course) still behind home plate and wearing his obnoxious orange visor sideways at the Final Four and the Kentucky Derby is enough to make me leave and never come back.

what a putz

[IanIachimoe]

The Mets.

for me

too emotionally attached to players I should have no problem dumping.

[Bobble]

To celebrate the change in direction for the Royals I'm planning to manage, I've decided that a uniform change is in order. I'm going with Tyrian "royal" purple instead of the blue.