Beware of owning lefties who pull the ball

GlassGuyBob · 04-25-2019, 07:12 PM

I have tried a few team configurations and it seems like even excellent lefty batter who pull the ball are terrible in PT. I assume this is the effect of most teams playing heavy shifts. Extreme pull lefties play very poorly.

It's kind of sad, but it seems that Ted Williams and Ken Griffey Jr have gone the way of Chris Davis. It seems a little crazy that Ted Williams would bat under .240 for two straight seasons at Gold and Diamond or that Griffey couldn't crack .220 at Gold or .190 at Diamond. But I guess shifting is just that effective.

So I'd caution anyone away from paying up for pull lefties. It's unfortunate that this info isn't shown on auction pages, so be careful.

neugey · 04-26-2019, 08:52 AM

Assuming your theory is correct - would I also have to worry about righty batters with extreme pull? Or perhaps shifting vs right handed batters isn't as prominent because there's only so far you want to move your 1B away from first base?

Chico Guilbault · 04-26-2019, 09:25 AM

I have been looking at this too. I have yet to find a pull hitting lefty in my league (not just my team) who is hitting for a decent average. Best I see is Freddie Freeman at about .271 and this I believe is well below where he should be.

I have my ballpark maxed out for hitting and my team is at .250. Half my lineup is pull hitting lefties and they are the only ones with sub-par batting averages.

I would love to be convinced otherwise...does anyone have some examples where they are hitting for a high average?

Chico Guilbault · 04-26-2019, 09:41 AM

Just looked at my other league...same thing. Every single pull hitting lefty I look at has a terrible batting average and for more than just the current year. At what point does it become a large sample size?

old timer · 04-26-2019, 10:35 AM

Since I'm bored at the moment...

Last season, I had two pull hitting lefties (Klein and McGriff) that hit .265 and .287, which considering their ratings, was normal for them. This year, I have two different ones (Ashburn and Fox) who are hitting .319 and .316. These are the only pull hitting lefties I had playing much so I'm not leaving out examples who didn't hit well.

This league has multiple who are hitting well, like Matt Carpenter who's an extreme pull hitter and has only a 54 contact and yet he's hitting .311. Juan Soto is hitting .291 which is about what one would expect for him as well. There are others too, so I don't see any point in checking further.

Edit: Also, someone from the other thread where this was mentioned gave other examples. Really, I don't see any evidence for this "theory".

Chico Guilbault · 04-26-2019, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by old timer

Since I'm bored at the moment...

Last season, I had two pull hitting lefties that hit .265 and .287, which considering their ratings, was normal for them. This year, I have two different ones (not the same two as last year) who are hitting .316 and .319.

This league has multiple who are hitting well, like Matt Carpenter who's an extreme pull hitter and has only a 54 contact and yet he's hitting .311. Juan Soto is hitting .291 which is about what one would expect for him as well. There are others too, so I don't see any point in checking further.

Edit: Also, someone from the other thread where this was mentioned gave other examples. Really, I don't see any evidence for this "theory".

Really I'm glad to see this because I don't want this to be an issue. It's just weird that in my two leagues I don't see any evidence to disprove the "theory". I'll keep looking...maybe check to see if we have any Carpenters or Sotos to compare.

GlassGuyBob · 04-26-2019, 10:50 AM

There's always variance to take into account and one of the main factors is obviously how team strategy is set across the league. So, YMMV, but my league must have had mostly sabermetric strategy as the league as a whole had no extreme pull lefties hitting over .260 last week. Across the entire league.

Tazilon · 04-26-2019, 10:56 AM

Carpenter was not hitting for me this year but it wasnt due to shifts. Shifts cant defend the HR and he was hardly hitting any. At the same time, Griffey jr was stroking along at .311. I replaced both of them simply because i found better players on the AH

petdawg · 04-26-2019, 11:07 AM

Check out this thread from yesterday that also talks about this subject: https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boa...d.php?t=302603

<Pion> · 04-26-2019, 11:09 AM

My Ted Williams is hitting .371 with a 1.140 OPS

Dogberry99 · 04-26-2019, 12:46 PM

People also reached the conclusion that no lefty pitchers could succeed in this game, in spite of evidence given by others that countered the assertion (at least under certain conditions).

I have nothing to add, other than to point out that we as a community may be on the verge of treating lefty hitters like we already treat lefty pitchers.

Orcin · 04-26-2019, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

People also reached the conclusion that no lefty pitchers could succeed in this game, in spite of evidence given by others that countered the assertion (at least under certain conditions).

I have nothing to add, other than to point out that we as a community may be on the verge of treating lefty hitters like we already treat lefty pitchers.

Good news. The price on Ruth and Bonds will come down to the point where I can add them.

dkgo · 04-26-2019, 12:52 PM

The numbers are only worth looking at in perfect leagues. people below aren't bothering with the shift strategy sliders

chazzycat · 04-26-2019, 12:57 PM

As a manager of 3 teams in gold/silver, with my shift settings maxed out in all 3, I would disagree.

<Pion> · 04-26-2019, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

People also reached the conclusion that no lefty pitchers could succeed in this game, in spite of evidence given by others that countered the assertion (at least under certain conditions).

I have nothing to add, other than to point out that we as a community may be on the verge of treating lefty hitters like we already treat lefty pitchers.

Agreed as I thought this earlier this morning. I was hoping to use my statistical downloads to prove or disprove the Extreme Lefty theory being put forward like I was able to show with LHP. Unfortunately, the fields that were needed to know if they were Extreme Pull hitters were not part of my downloads. Will have to work forward from this point by altering my future downloads but it will take a few weeks to get enough data.

chazzycat · 04-26-2019, 01:14 PM

I would guess that being lefty is not really the problem, it's the "extreme pull" grounder tendency that hurts most. If we're attributing this to the shift (rightly so, I think) then righties really wouldn't be any better off, would they? The revolution in shifts the past several years has absolutely included shifting against RHB.

https://www.billjamesonline.com/shif...nded_hitters_/

GlassGuyBob · 04-26-2019, 01:30 PM

Yes, but shifts are most effective against lefties and used much more often vs lefties for multiple reasons. Primarily because someone has to cover first base and because runners are more likely to be on first than third.

Extreme pull righties are not going to be as hurt by shifts as lefties. Go check the stats.

Last year the team that shifted the most vs lefties shifted 76.1% of the time. The team that shifted the most vs righties shifted 38.1% of the time.

chazzycat · 04-26-2019, 01:36 PM

Right, very true - but it still could be pretty significant compared to the performance you would expect based on their historical stats (with no shifting). Personally I try to avoid any extreme pull grounder guys. To each their own.

04-25-2019, 07:12 PM	#1
GlassGuyBob Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 121	Beware of owning lefties who pull the ball I have tried a few team configurations and it seems like even excellent lefty batter who pull the ball are terrible in PT. I assume this is the effect of most teams playing heavy shifts. Extreme pull lefties play very poorly. It's kind of sad, but it seems that Ted Williams and Ken Griffey Jr have gone the way of Chris Davis. It seems a little crazy that Ted Williams would bat under .240 for two straight seasons at Gold and Diamond or that Griffey couldn't crack .220 at Gold or .190 at Diamond. But I guess shifting is just that effective. So I'd caution anyone away from paying up for pull lefties. It's unfortunate that this info isn't shown on auction pages, so be careful.

04-26-2019, 08:52 AM	#2
neugey All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 805	Assuming your theory is correct - would I also have to worry about righty batters with extreme pull? Or perhaps shifting vs right handed batters isn't as prominent because there's only so far you want to move your 1B away from first base? __________________ Online OOTP League Play: PBA - Cincinnati Reds MLM - Baltimore Orioles

04-26-2019, 09:25 AM	#3
Chico Guilbault All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Harlingen, NJ Posts: 1,078	I have been looking at this too. I have yet to find a pull hitting lefty in my league (not just my team) who is hitting for a decent average. Best I see is Freddie Freeman at about .271 and this I believe is well below where he should be. I have my ballpark maxed out for hitting and my team is at .250. Half my lineup is pull hitting lefties and they are the only ones with sub-par batting averages. I would love to be convinced otherwise...does anyone have some examples where they are hitting for a high average? __________________ BeechumCounty.com

04-26-2019, 09:41 AM	#4
Chico Guilbault All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Harlingen, NJ Posts: 1,078	Just looked at my other league...same thing. Every single pull hitting lefty I look at has a terrible batting average and for more than just the current year. At what point does it become a large sample size? __________________ BeechumCounty.com

04-26-2019, 10:35 AM	#5
old timer Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 2,278	Since I'm bored at the moment... Last season, I had two pull hitting lefties (Klein and McGriff) that hit .265 and .287, which considering their ratings, was normal for them. This year, I have two different ones (Ashburn and Fox) who are hitting .319 and .316. These are the only pull hitting lefties I had playing much so I'm not leaving out examples who didn't hit well. This league has multiple who are hitting well, like Matt Carpenter who's an extreme pull hitter and has only a 54 contact and yet he's hitting .311. Juan Soto is hitting .291 which is about what one would expect for him as well. There are others too, so I don't see any point in checking further. Edit: Also, someone from the other thread where this was mentioned gave other examples. Really, I don't see any evidence for this "theory". __________________ Last edited by old timer; 04-26-2019 at 10:45 AM.

04-26-2019, 10:50 AM	#7
GlassGuyBob Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 121	There's always variance to take into account and one of the main factors is obviously how team strategy is set across the league. So, YMMV, but my league must have had mostly sabermetric strategy as the league as a whole had no extreme pull lefties hitting over .260 last week. Across the entire league.

04-26-2019, 10:56 AM	#8
Tazilon Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: Mesquite, TX Posts: 116	Carpenter was not hitting for me this year but it wasnt due to shifts. Shifts cant defend the HR and he was hardly hitting any. At the same time, Griffey jr was stroking along at .311. I replaced both of them simply because i found better players on the AH Last edited by Tazilon; 04-26-2019 at 06:56 PM.

04-26-2019, 11:07 AM	#9
petdawg Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Check out this thread from yesterday that also talks about this subject: https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boa...d.php?t=302603

04-26-2019, 11:09 AM	#10
<Pion> All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,428	My Ted Williams is hitting .371 with a 1.140 OPS

04-26-2019, 12:46 PM	#11
Dogberry99 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Wichita Falls, TX Posts: 1,328	People also reached the conclusion that no lefty pitchers could succeed in this game, in spite of evidence given by others that countered the assertion (at least under certain conditions). I have nothing to add, other than to point out that we as a community may be on the verge of treating lefty hitters like we already treat lefty pitchers. __________________ "And, Masters, do not forget to specify, when time and place shall serve, that I am an [censored]." (Much Ado About Nothing 5.1.255-256) Primary Team Collection Rewards (Cards & Packs) F2P Theme Team Movers F2P Theme and Adam Schlesinger Memorial Team

04-26-2019, 12:52 PM	#13
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	The numbers are only worth looking at in perfect leagues. people below aren't bothering with the shift strategy sliders

04-26-2019, 12:57 PM	#14
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	As a manager of 3 teams in gold/silver, with my shift settings maxed out in all 3, I would disagree.

04-26-2019, 01:14 PM	#16
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I would guess that being lefty is not really the problem, it's the "extreme pull" grounder tendency that hurts most. If we're attributing this to the shift (rightly so, I think) then righties really wouldn't be any better off, would they? The revolution in shifts the past several years has absolutely included shifting against RHB. https://www.billjamesonline.com/shif...nded_hitters_/

04-26-2019, 01:30 PM	#17
GlassGuyBob Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 121	Yes, but shifts are most effective against lefties and used much more often vs lefties for multiple reasons. Primarily because someone has to cover first base and because runners are more likely to be on first than third. Extreme pull righties are not going to be as hurt by shifts as lefties. Go check the stats. Last year the team that shifted the most vs lefties shifted 76.1% of the time. The team that shifted the most vs righties shifted 38.1% of the time.

04-26-2019, 01:36 PM	#18
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Right, very true - but it still could be pretty significant compared to the performance you would expect based on their historical stats (with no shifting). Personally I try to avoid any extreme pull grounder guys. To each their own.