No Randomness at all...are certain players just "tied" to you?

Hwilensky · 01-22-2021, 11:16 AM

Hey All,

So not sure if anyone else feels the way i do, but does anyone else feel that there is no "randomness" to packs? Yesterday I opened 11 diamond packs in a row, and out of the 11 packs, I pulled 3 scherzers, 2 chapmans and 3 flaherty's. Does this happen to anyone else?

bailey · 01-22-2021, 11:32 AM

I don't buy packs, but I do earn them in tournaments, collections, twitch drops, and challenge mode. Out of 3,409 packs earned so far only 12 were diamond packs and I can't say what I got in those, but overall I am happy with the results. Estimated value of cards sold in the AH exceeds 3 million points....

dkgo · 01-22-2021, 11:35 AM

The packs are not ****ing rigged. That is actual randomness. Take a statistics class.

Fake randomness would be if they forced different cards to pull before you get a duplicate so it seems more "random". Perhaps this would be better, but it is a lot of work to develop. In fact, many "randomizer" algorithms do something like this because most people are like you and have no concept of what the results of true randomness can look like. Search for some articles on how Spotify's "shuffle" algorithm works as an example. They intentionally make it not random because when it was completely random people complained that it wasn't random enough, but when it is manufactured to mirror the typical idea of "random" people like it more. Quite interesting stuff actually.

Hwilensky · 01-22-2021, 11:38 AM

Thats great!!! I just feel, I pull the same diamond or perfect cards over and over. The lone perfect card I pulled for this particular team was a Mookie betts. Low and behold, the only other perfect I pulled........was a mookie betts. Yes, I am happy that it came from a regular pack, but to pull the same diamond over and over. Something just doesnt seem right.

bailey · 01-22-2021, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hwilensky

Thats great!!! I just feel, I pull the same diamond or perfect cards over and over. The lone perfect card I pulled for this particular team was a Mookie betts. Low and behold, the only other perfect I pulled........was a mookie betts. Yes, I am happy that it came from a regular pack, but to pull the same diamond over and over. Something just doesnt seem right.

For what it's worth, the last 10 live diamonds I pulled, I got Syndergaard 3 times, Hendricks 2 times, and Marquez 2 times. I don't care-- they're 4000 points apiece to me and that's all that matters. You can't build a team through packs--out of 3,409 packs I kept ONE card, FACE Roberto Clemente and I should have sold him, too. I could have made 150K when I pulled him...

dkgo · 01-22-2021, 11:49 AM

I'm sure you are well-intentioned and just venting after what feels like a bad run of cards (happens to all of us) so I don't mean to be hostile, but baseless conspiracy theories need to be strongly shot down so that more casual readers don't see them go unchallenged and begin to believe there is truth to that type of nonsense.

I've gone through thousands upon thousands of packs, mostly in PT20 but I highly doubt they changed the algorithm between versions. Sometimes I get the same live perfect three times in a row before another. It happens. It only doesn't "seem right" if you are very unfamiliar with randomness and statistics. But in fact the opposite is true, if it never happened then that is an indication that pulls are being curated instead of random.

Tinkerman · 01-22-2021, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

I could have made 150K when I pulled him...

Don't feel too bad. I could've made over 300k if I'd sold 99 Clemente when I pulled him! Ended up locked with a value of about 30k

Packs have been pretty good to me, but I've been 'good' to them - to the tune of 20,000+. I just can't seem to kill my packs team off

. (I'm still dreaming of a DL championship for them someday...)
Roughly 1500--2000 packs per good perfect may be a bit brutal, but it is what it is. You're definitely about due, Bailey!

One takeaway from opening lots of packs is that statistical anomalies seem very common. That suggests that they're actually quite likely to happen through chance, and they just stand out because they draw my attention.

bailey · 01-22-2021, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

I just can't seem to kill my packs team off

. (I'm still dreaming of a DL championship for them someday...)
.

That gives me an idea for my alt which still has 600K left over after plunking down 400+ for Ty Cobb. I was thinking of doing Tigers theme, but my heart isn't in it. Since, I've kept track of the 52 historical diamonds I've drawn and 2 historical perfects--maybe I should try to buy those for the alt as if it were a pack only team! I can only buy for my alt cards I've packed on my main! I wonder if that would be a violation?

Tinkerman · 01-22-2021, 06:30 PM

It's not really for me to say... but as long as they're not better than my team, it's fine with me

With how powerful the best cards are, this team is still struggling a bit in Diamond, but it's getting there. It's been very frustrating at times, but I'm really glad I went all in on a packs team. It'll quite likely keep me active for longest, as well.

Hwilensky · 01-22-2021, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

I'm sure you are well-intentioned and just venting after what feels like a bad run of cards (happens to all of us) so I don't mean to be hostile, but baseless conspiracy theories need to be strongly shot down so that more casual readers don't see them go unchallenged and begin to believe there is truth to that type of nonsense.

I've gone through thousands upon thousands of packs, mostly in PT20 but I highly doubt they changed the algorithm between versions. Sometimes I get the same live perfect three times in a row before another. It happens. It only doesn't "seem right" if you are very unfamiliar with randomness and statistics. But in fact the opposite is true, if it never happened then that is an indication that pulls are being curated instead of random.

Yes it was just a vent and nothing else. My "C" team has pulled 3 100 Verlanders, and I am not complaining, just venting.

Spieler · 01-23-2021, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

That gives me an idea for my alt which still has 600K left over after plunking down 400+ for Ty Cobb. I was thinking of doing Tigers theme, but my heart isn't in it.

Don't bother, it is disappointing. Not enough high-end-playable cards on the Tigers. Good enough these days to do OK in gold and get killed in Diamond if you "luck" into a promotion.

01-22-2021, 11:16 AM	#1
Hwilensky All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 669	No Randomness at all...are certain players just "tied" to you? Hey All, So not sure if anyone else feels the way i do, but does anyone else feel that there is no "randomness" to packs? Yesterday I opened 11 diamond packs in a row, and out of the 11 packs, I pulled 3 scherzers, 2 chapmans and 3 flaherty's. Does this happen to anyone else?

01-22-2021, 06:30 PM	#9
Tinkerman All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,931	It's not really for me to say... but as long as they're not better than my team, it's fine with me With how powerful the best cards are, this team is still struggling a bit in Diamond, but it's getting there. It's been very frustrating at times, but I'm really glad I went all in on a packs team. It'll quite likely keep me active for longest, as well. Attached Images __________________

01-22-2021, 11:32 AM	#2
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,315	I don't buy packs, but I do earn them in tournaments, collections, twitch drops, and challenge mode. Out of 3,409 packs earned so far only 12 were diamond packs and I can't say what I got in those, but overall I am happy with the results. Estimated value of cards sold in the AH exceeds 3 million points....

01-22-2021, 11:35 AM	#3
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	The packs are not ****ing rigged. That is actual randomness. Take a statistics class. Fake randomness would be if they forced different cards to pull before you get a duplicate so it seems more "random". Perhaps this would be better, but it is a lot of work to develop. In fact, many "randomizer" algorithms do something like this because most people are like you and have no concept of what the results of true randomness can look like. Search for some articles on how Spotify's "shuffle" algorithm works as an example. They intentionally make it not random because when it was completely random people complained that it wasn't random enough, but when it is manufactured to mirror the typical idea of "random" people like it more. Quite interesting stuff actually.

01-22-2021, 11:38 AM	#4
Hwilensky All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 669	Thats great!!! I just feel, I pull the same diamond or perfect cards over and over. The lone perfect card I pulled for this particular team was a Mookie betts. Low and behold, the only other perfect I pulled........was a mookie betts. Yes, I am happy that it came from a regular pack, but to pull the same diamond over and over. Something just doesnt seem right.

01-22-2021, 11:49 AM	#6
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	I'm sure you are well-intentioned and just venting after what feels like a bad run of cards (happens to all of us) so I don't mean to be hostile, but baseless conspiracy theories need to be strongly shot down so that more casual readers don't see them go unchallenged and begin to believe there is truth to that type of nonsense. I've gone through thousands upon thousands of packs, mostly in PT20 but I highly doubt they changed the algorithm between versions. Sometimes I get the same live perfect three times in a row before another. It happens. It only doesn't "seem right" if you are very unfamiliar with randomness and statistics. But in fact the opposite is true, if it never happened then that is an indication that pulls are being curated instead of random.