Bias Schmias (AKA There's Safety in Numbers)

luckymann · 02-06-2023, 12:05 AM

Well it's all been a bit hard core of late with a lot of people's noses well out of joint and way too much unpleasantness for my liking. Nice to see it looks as if the worst is past.

In an effort to help continue the healing process, I thought this might be a fun endeavour. Or maybe not, one can only try.

Not sure about anyone else, but I have a bunch of things in the game that I think I see but then immediately question whether or not it is real or simply some sort of cognitive bias playing tricks on me.

So I thought maybe we could share some of these and see if we are alone on our island of madness or surrounded by friends.

I'll kick it off with these two:

Players seeming to play better whenever they pick up a DtD injury.
Beginner's luck for pitchers, where some low-rated scrub will come out in his first start ever or for some time and pitch a Maddux.

Anyone else have these experiences or care to share one or more of their own?

G

BIG17EASY · 02-06-2023, 09:20 AM

I have not tracked either of those things, but I definitely have not seen it anecdotally. In fact, I can probably count on one hand the total number of times a Maddux was pitched in the last couple seasons of my league, let alone by a rookie making his first start.

That said, depending on how a league evolves, the chance of such a thing happening could go up or down as seasons progress.

David Watts · 02-06-2023, 09:48 AM

Not sure if this counts, but I wonder if I'm the only one.

Whenever I try to squeeze one game of OOTP in before leaving for work or going to a doctor's appointment etc., it is almost a given that no matter what the score is heading into the 8th or 9th, the losing team will tie the game and send it into extra innings. More often than not it ends up going 14 or 15 innings before the game is decided.

Eugene Church · 02-06-2023, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Not sure if this counts, but I wonder if I'm the only one.

Whenever I try to squeeze one game of OOTP in before leaving for work or going to a doctor's appointment etc., it is almost a given that no matter what the score is heading into the 8th or 9th, the losing team will tie the game and send it into extra innings. More often than not it ends up going 14 or 15 innings before the game is decided.

Yep, this happens to me often, too.

Another thing, the team that I want to win the title never seems to be able to wrap it up... they will blow games 5 and 6 and sometimes... gasp... gasp... the will lose game 7, too... or scare the bejillies out of me... gasp, gasp, gasp... then finally win the league championship.

I sometimes suspect the game is programmed for exciting finishes.

I also suspect there are too many diving catches made for the same reason.

Nope, I have no strong research to prove my suspicions... just a lot of hot air and a bunch of hooey.

I'm pretty good at that.

zappa1 · 02-06-2023, 11:14 AM

Oh yeah. Not all the time but, yes. Granted I'm playing in 1917 but I had a four run lead late and it got tied. 21 innings later I lost.

David Watts · 02-06-2023, 11:32 AM

Here's one that I know is completely in my head. I don't manage, I just watch games. If I'm watching a game and the managr for team that is losing or tied doesn't pinch hit for the starting pitcher in the bottom of 7th or the 8th inning, I know(in my head, anyway) that the team will comeback to win in the bottom of the 9th........I know it

tonnage · 02-06-2023, 02:03 PM

It seems to me that every time I make a visit to the pitcher's mound to give my guy hell, after I leave, he always pitches much better.

nutt · 02-06-2023, 02:18 PM

That I may have finally figured out how to use "pitch to contact" the right way only for power hitters to still tee off on 3-run blasts or grand slams.

Syd Thrift · 02-06-2023, 03:45 PM

I know it doesn’t do this but when I’m in a bad mood I swear to Zeus the game has a built-in “comeback code” that encourages ties and long-ass extra inning slogs, especially in the first game of a doubleheader.

The Game · 02-06-2023, 04:36 PM

My recently acquired Rf Camenate was 0-8 before suffering a DTD since then he is 2-5. While not a scrub 3.5 potential, currently 2.5, my #5 SP until his most recent start was 2-0 20 IP 21 k 7 BB. He pitched a 2 starts in July, 1 relief appearance in April. His 3rd start he got shelled for 4 ER, 6 R but still had 6 K in 4.1 IP BB.

My SU is 1 star guy 27 IP 18 H 25 k 10 BB. LHP.

luckymann · 02-06-2023, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Not sure if this counts, but I wonder if I'm the only one.

Whenever I try to squeeze one game of OOTP in before leaving for work or going to a doctor's appointment etc., it is almost a given that no matter what the score is heading into the 8th or 9th, the losing team will tie the game and send it into extra innings. More often than not it ends up going 14 or 15 innings before the game is decided.

x2

discodude5 · 02-06-2023, 09:41 PM

I've considered trying a strategy of sign/release for my #5 SP.
No matter who I put in there, whether a waiver signing, free agent with a career 6.00 era or call up etc they nearly always have a great first start and then typically ok second start and then not very good after.
However if they have a few good starts then they seem to put up stats that are better than my #2 and I really don't want to move them up and move someone else down into the #5 spot even though all logic says I should.

Bobfather · 02-06-2023, 11:53 PM

I use 1-100 0r 20-80 scales.
I know if I can get that 50 fatigue out of the game I can hit the next guy. Only to see the starter throw a 130-pitch complete game.

Here is one I know is true, the worse the catcher's arm and pitcher hold say a combo of 10/15 (all orange) the harder it is to steal.

When I have a good player on the DL and can't decide who to send down when he comes back,I get another injury.

pauwoo · 02-07-2023, 12:39 AM

I like to quick sim all my teams’ games up to the bottom of the 7th and watch from there after checking out the log and box score… whenever I allow myself walk away to grab a drink, snack, or take care of some chore because my team has a comfortable lead (3-4 runs), I come back to a loss. 75% of the time, easy.

luckymann · 02-07-2023, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodude5

I've considered trying a strategy of sign/release for my #5 SP.
No matter who I put in there, whether a waiver signing, free agent with a career 6.00 era or call up etc they nearly always have a great first start and then typically ok second start and then not very good after.
However if they have a few good starts then they seem to put up stats that are better than my #2 and I really don't want to move them up and move someone else down into the #5 spot even though all logic says I should.

This is what I meant in the OP - wasn't talking about a literal Maddux, just an outing way better than you'd be expecting.

I feel better for that about 2 of every 3 of these are ones I've noticed, or thought I had. Collective cray-cray is much preferable to solo.

texasmame · 02-07-2023, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonnage

It seems to me that every time I make a visit to the pitcher's mound to give my guy hell, after I leave, he always pitches much better.

Here's a half-assed study I did on that:

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=331046

It seems to help.

As for mound visits, I do them so often, I get booed.

Pelican · 02-08-2023, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckymann

x2

X3. I mean, these are lovely, nerve-racking games to play, when you have time. When you don't, there's the choice of rushing or hoping that it's still there waiting for you later. No fun!!

Pelican · 02-08-2023, 05:34 PM

This isn't something I've imagined; I have the boxscores. Late in my 2021 Season, the AI began starting relievers, somewhat randomly, but consistently across teams and leagues, ignoring established rotations. And - to return to the thread - some of these guys pitched magnificent games, deep into games despite limited stamina. I could not trace this to tired or injured starters or other gaps in the rotations. It didn't start until September, as if the AI decided to give these guys a shot at starting. No, it wasn't limited (as you would expect) to long relievers, spot starters, or guys with decent stamina. A mystery to me.

Pelican · 02-08-2023, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Not sure if this counts, but I wonder if I'm the only one.

Whenever I try to squeeze one game of OOTP in before leaving for work or going to a doctor's appointment etc., it is almost a given that no matter what the score is heading into the 8th or 9th, the losing team will tie the game and send it into extra innings. More often than not it ends up going 14 or 15 innings before the game is decided.

This.

Eugene Church · 02-08-2023, 06:21 PM

The AI really can't make up his/her mind about the pitching rotations in my league... why does the AI take a good starter and move him to the bullpen and replace him with a subpar starter.

I'm beginning my playoffs and the AI is using some questionable pitchers as starters.

Happens much too often.

Another thing... I have better players on my reserved rosters, but they just linger there and retire... don't understand that... it looks like the guy with the better ratings would play.

02-06-2023, 12:05 AM	#1
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 12,979	Bias Schmias (AKA There's Safety in Numbers) Well it's all been a bit hard core of late with a lot of people's noses well out of joint and way too much unpleasantness for my liking. Nice to see it looks as if the worst is past. In an effort to help continue the healing process, I thought this might be a fun endeavour. Or maybe not, one can only try. Not sure about anyone else, but I have a bunch of things in the game that I think I see but then immediately question whether or not it is real or simply some sort of cognitive bias playing tricks on me. So I thought maybe we could share some of these and see if we are alone on our island of madness or surrounded by friends. I'll kick it off with these two: Players seeming to play better whenever they pick up a DtD injury. Beginner's luck for pitchers, where some low-rated scrub will come out in his first start ever or for some time and pitch a Maddux. Anyone else have these experiences or care to share one or more of their own? G __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE GULF LEAGUE USBA

02-06-2023, 02:18 PM	#8
nutt OOTP Roster Team Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Nashville, TN Posts: 2,170	That I may have finally figured out how to use "pitch to contact" the right way only for power hitters to still tee off on 3-run blasts or grand slams. __________________ Mega World for OOTP 25: CLICK HERE! Thread College Baseball All-Time Roster Project: CLICK HERE! AIO for OOTP 23: CLICK HERE! Thread AIO for OOTP 22: CLICK HERE! Thread BIG WORLD for OOTP22: WinRAR File ZIP file My Custom Schedules

02-06-2023, 04:36 PM	#10
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	My recently acquired Rf Camenate was 0-8 before suffering a DTD since then he is 2-5. While not a scrub 3.5 potential, currently 2.5, my #5 SP until his most recent start was 2-0 20 IP 21 k 7 BB. He pitched a 2 starts in July, 1 relief appearance in April. His 3rd start he got shelled for 4 ER, 6 R but still had 6 K in 4.1 IP BB. My SU is 1 star guy 27 IP 18 H 25 k 10 BB. LHP. __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

02-06-2023, 11:53 PM	#13
Bobfather All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Boston Ma. Posts: 1,546	I use 1-100 0r 20-80 scales. I know if I can get that 50 fatigue out of the game I can hit the next guy. Only to see the starter throw a 130-pitch complete game. Here is one I know is true, the worse the catcher's arm and pitcher hold say a combo of 10/15 (all orange) the harder it is to steal. When I have a good player on the DL and can't decide who to send down when he comes back,I get another injury. __________________ I play out every game—one pitch mode.

02-07-2023, 12:39 AM	#14
pauwoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Seattle Posts: 2,255	I like to quick sim all my teams’ games up to the bottom of the 7th and watch from there after checking out the log and box score… whenever I allow myself walk away to grab a drink, snack, or take care of some chore because my team has a comfortable lead (3-4 runs), I come back to a loss. 75% of the time, easy. __________________ Be excellent to each other. the Portland Pioneers \| the Los Angeles Leopards

02-06-2023, 09:20 AM	#2
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	I have not tracked either of those things, but I definitely have not seen it anecdotally. In fact, I can probably count on one hand the total number of times a Maddux was pitched in the last couple seasons of my league, let alone by a rookie making his first start. That said, depending on how a league evolves, the chance of such a thing happening could go up or down as seasons progress.

02-06-2023, 09:48 AM	#3
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,586 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Not sure if this counts, but I wonder if I'm the only one. Whenever I try to squeeze one game of OOTP in before leaving for work or going to a doctor's appointment etc., it is almost a given that no matter what the score is heading into the 8th or 9th, the losing team will tie the game and send it into extra innings. More often than not it ends up going 14 or 15 innings before the game is decided.

02-06-2023, 11:14 AM	#5
zappa1 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 2,104	Oh yeah. Not all the time but, yes. Granted I'm playing in 1917 but I had a four run lead late and it got tied. 21 innings later I lost.

02-06-2023, 11:32 AM	#6
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,586 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Here's one that I know is completely in my head. I don't manage, I just watch games. If I'm watching a game and the managr for team that is losing or tied doesn't pinch hit for the starting pitcher in the bottom of 7th or the 8th inning, I know(in my head, anyway) that the team will comeback to win in the bottom of the 9th........I know it

02-06-2023, 02:03 PM	#7
tonnage Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Location: Stony Plain, Alberta Posts: 490	It seems to me that every time I make a visit to the pitcher's mound to give my guy hell, after I leave, he always pitches much better.

02-06-2023, 09:41 PM	#12
discodude5 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Saskatchewan Posts: 370	I've considered trying a strategy of sign/release for my #5 SP. No matter who I put in there, whether a waiver signing, free agent with a career 6.00 era or call up etc they nearly always have a great first start and then typically ok second start and then not very good after. However if they have a few good starts then they seem to put up stats that are better than my #2 and I really don't want to move them up and move someone else down into the #5 spot even though all logic says I should.

02-08-2023, 05:34 PM	#18
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,882	This isn't something I've imagined; I have the boxscores. Late in my 2021 Season, the AI began starting relievers, somewhat randomly, but consistently across teams and leagues, ignoring established rotations. And - to return to the thread - some of these guys pitched magnificent games, deep into games despite limited stamina. I could not trace this to tired or injured starters or other gaps in the rotations. It didn't start until September, as if the AI decided to give these guys a shot at starting. No, it wasn't limited (as you would expect) to long relievers, spot starters, or guys with decent stamina. A mystery to me. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.”

02-08-2023, 06:21 PM	#20
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 35,854	The AI really can't make up his/her mind about the pitching rotations in my league... why does the AI take a good starter and move him to the bullpen and replace him with a subpar starter. I'm beginning my playoffs and the AI is using some questionable pitchers as starters. Happens much too often. Another thing... I have better players on my reserved rosters, but they just linger there and retire... don't understand that... it looks like the guy with the better ratings would play.