Heimlich Season

[Pelican]

That would be 1964, the year that the Phillies choked in September, giving up a big lead, creating a tangle of teams in the National League (San Francisco, Milwaukee, Cincinnati), from which the St. Louis Cardinals improbably emerged on the last day of the season. The goal of this sim will be to avoid that late-season collapse, assuming this version of the Phillies is fortunate enough to even be in competition in September. So yeah, a sort of Heimlich maneuver to avoid choking, if you will.

Of course we today have the benefit of hindsight; although not really anything that was not apparent in the Spring of 1964. The Phils were an improving team, but one that still had weaknesses and lacked depth.

The good news was Dick (then “Richie”) Allen as a rookie. Power, speed, contact, and underrated as a fielder at 3B (a position he was not groomed to play IRL). His OOTP ratings reflect his Rookie of the Year potential.

Johnny Callison was a young star, five tools, improving toward superstar range in right field. Power lefty bat, superb in the field, an arm second only to Clemente.

Jim Bunning was new in town from Detroit, in a deal for Don Demeter. He was about to enter the dominant phase of his career. In retrospect, he was the perfect strikeout specialist and innings eater for a team like these Phillies. And the perfect righty complement to lefty Chris Short.

The Phillies farm system was producing future stars like pitcher Ray Culp and outfielders Alex Johnson and Adolfo Phillips, and pitchers like Grant Jackson and Gary Wagner.

A strong bullpen was anchored by screwballer (the pitch; not the personality) Jack Baldschun, Dallas Green, Ryne Duren. Clay Dalrymple and Gus Triándos were solid defensively behind the plate, and suspect at bat.

First base was an issue that would haunt Manager Gene Mauch all season long. Roy Seivers was about done at age 37, despite a productive 1963 Season. Danny Cater showed signs of hitting, but with little power. Same with John Herrnstein. Cal Emery was a guy who hit like crazy in the minors, but never got much of a chance. The IRL Phillies would acquire Frank Thomas and Vic Power, without getting any real production at 1B.

Shortstop was also an issue. Bobby Wine was by reputation a top fielder; but OOTP does not really see him that way. He is a liability at the plate. Ruben Amaro carries higher ratings for both defense and offense, but still is barely league average. He later had some solid years with the Yankees.

The outfield should be strong, with Tony Gonzalez in CF, Wes Covington in LF, and Callison in RF. Mauch thought that lefties Covington and Gonzalez could not hit LHP. He was close with Covington, and wrong about Gonzalez. Johnson promises to platoon with Covington in LF.

Art Mahaffey was a dominant starter, but by 1964 had already begun to develop the arm problems that would derail his career. Dennis Bennett, a young lefthander, would be the fourth starter. But he would succumb to arm issues, and the Phils were short on SP to replace him.

Time to get to work, preseason, on strengthening this team.

[Pelican]

Spring Training in Clearwater, 1964.

Cookie Rojas, omitted above, is outplaying incumbent Tony Taylor at 2B. Rojas is rated higher offensively with a high contact number. Both were popular players for years in Philly. Rojas was the prototypical utility guy, until he settled in as an All-Star 2B with the Royals. We’re going to give him the chance a few years earlier. That makes Taylor expendable.

Trade: Tony Taylor to the Baltimore Orioles for veteran RHP Robin Roberts. Return of the prodigal. The Phils unceremoniously dumped Roberts after a wretched start for a bad team in 1961 (and a 1-10 record on the year). He resurrected his career with the Orioles in 1962, and was still capable of being a fourth or fifth starter at age 37 in 1964. Plus this would prove to be a huge boost to the Phils Phaithful, who rallied around their former star, as soon as the trade was announced.

Trade: Art Mahaffey and Danny Cater to the Red Sox for Dick Stuart (1B). Dr. Strangeglove would eventually end up in Philadelphia in 1965 for one season, a decent one. In 1963, traded from Pittsburgh to Boston, he thrived at Fenway, with 42 home runs, and led the Al in RBI with 118. Also the leader in GIDP with 24, and near the lead with 144 strike outs. The trade made sense for the Bosox, who need pitching more than hitting. They’d soon have Boomer Scott to man 1B. The Phils’ lineup with Callison sandwiched between Allen and Stuart looks formidable.

I tried a number of other deals, for guys like Don Demeter, Jim Hickman, Ernie Banks, Deron Johnson, all without success, for various reasons. The OOTP trade algorithm does hold up. This was the classic deal that helps both teams - assuming Mahaffey’s arm holds up, and Stuart can hit bombs outside of Fenway Park. I figured that Cater, who has good contact but little pop, was expendable with Stuart onboard. Either John Herrnstein or Carl Emery, both lefty hitters, can spell Stuart against RHSP.

[Pelican]

Trade: Cal McLish to the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP Bobby Shantz and 3B/2B Coco Laboy. Another Philly hero (born in nearby Pottstown) returns home. I am a sentimental bastard. Shantz, at 38, was still an effective reliever, and the Gold Glove winner. McLish was 13-11 with the Phillies as a starter, but also 38, with shoulder tendinitis. He would only appear in two games in 1964, before being released, and going on to a successful career as a pitching coach. Shantz provides a lefty in the pen beyond young Grant Jackson and younger Marcellino Lopez.

If you are a believer in disturbances in the time/space continuum, there is another motive for this deal. IRL, Shantz was part of the package dealt by St. Louis to the Cubs in early 1964 for Lou Brock, who turned his careers around for the Redbirds. Maybe, without Shantz, the St. Louis AI GM does not do that deal. In the classic book about the 1964 Season, Brock is the key piece for St. Louis. Of course, they had Bill White, MVP Ken Boyer, Mike Shannon, Curt Flood. But maybe the loss of Shantz disrupts that. Or maybe the addition of McLish turns the tide.

[Pelican]

I tried shopping around 36-year-old Johnny Klippstein, who had a sparkling ERA of 1.93 in over 100 relief innings for the Phillies in 1963. He finished up 5-6 with a retroactive credit for 8 saves. The Twins offered George Banks, an apparent utility player (decent fielding ratings at every IF position, LF, RF) who hit .280/.392/.493 in Denver in AAA, with 25 HR and 82 RBI. He has had two cups of coffee in Minny and hit decently. [IRL he played small parts of four more seasons in Minnesota and Cleveland, was out of baseball at 31. Last year was a few games at Spartanburg, when it was a Phillies Class A team. There must be a story hidden there.]

Trade: John Klippstein to the Twins for George Banks.

Banks has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and OF in Spring Training. Striking out a lot. Will probably start him in AAA but could use his power off the bench. He has a 64 power rating and 89 eye (consistency walking more than striking out in the minors), but only a 38 contact rating.

[Pelican]

Trade: Johnny Briggs to Washington for Don Lock. Briggs is only 20 years old and raw. Doesn't have much sign of his later power. With three lefty-hitting starting OF, don't need his bat. A prudent GM would stash him at AAA and let him develop, but I really need a right-handed hitter in the OF. Lock, who later did come to the Phillies, is a solid CF and LF coming off a 27 HR and 82 RBI season for a bad team. He sports 42/70/81 ratings, with decent speed. He'll strike out a lot. (That will be a continuing theme with this squad.) I always liked him as a player. He is sneaky-quick at stealing bases. Briggs, depending upon TCR, will have a longer and more productive career.

[Pelican]

I'm currently at the end of March in Spring Training. Record is 8-11, but 7-3 recently as starters play more, and pitchers round into shape. The losses were a combination of implosions by young pitchers, and young hitters being overmatched.

The rotation and daily lineup is falling into place. Callison, Gonzalez, and Covington across the OF, with Adolfo Phillips and Alex Johnson as backups and platoon candidates. The IF is Stuart, Rojas, Amaro, and Allen. Herrnstein and Emery, who can each also play OF, will be on the bench. Norm Gigon (College coach of Joe Madden) and Lee Elia are vying for IF backup spots. Dalrymple and Triandos as catchers, with Pat Corrales next in line.

The rotation shapes up as Short, Bunning, Culp, Bennett, and Roberts. Baldschun the closer, Wagner and Shantz as setup, Duren the "stopper", and Jackson, Green, Lopez et al. in the back of the pen.

Here's what I am wondering as the end of Spring Training nears.

Am I satisfied with the catchers? Dalrymple is strong on defense, great arm, but never hit much, and utterly stopped hitting at this point in his career IRL. He became a liability despite his glove. But his OOTP ratings based on 1963 (and prior - I use 40/30/20/10 - aren't terrible. I did a fairly complete search, and the MLB catchers are a lean bunch, as far as hitting. Triandos has some power, and is fine on defense. It would be hard to do improve here.

I'm leery of my middle infielders. They should be better than average defensively, and should hold their own offensively. Neither one is a speedster, and they don't walk much, or bunt well. Rojas can hit, and will bat second. I'm hoping Amaro can hold his own batting eighth, because I don't have much else.

Emery, with strong ratings, could be trade bait. When I shop him, I get very legitimate offers in return. I'd love to pick up another SP for insurance, or ideally a guy who could spot start or pitch middle to long relief. There are not so many of those players in 1964. And what if Stuart does not hit in Philly? It's temptation, but I feel like Emery could be a star in this reality. He's a guy who never got his chance IRL.

Depth. I don't have a lot of it, especially middle IF and behind the plate. My bullpen has questionable arms behind the studs. Knowing this team IRL ran out of SP, I am tempted to hoard them. Trading Mahaffey may have been an error. He could be dominant in this reality, if he stays healthy.

My plan is to sit tight, and wait until teams have to cut down their Spring rosters, and are forced to DFA guys and thus deal furiously. Might be able to get bench help or pitching depth cheaply at that point.

[Pelican]

Trade: SF Giants acquire Roger Maris and Jim Bouton in return for Orlando Cepeda. As Commissioner, I intervened to work this deal, after playing the Giants. They played Cepeda at 1B and McCovey in LF. They have a surplus of sluggers and 1B in particular. Jim Ray Hart is set to debut. This gives them a proven SP and an underrated (at this point in his career) RF. No idea why the Yankees parted with Bouton so easily. We know he was something of a head case who would have sore arm issues, but he is coming off a dominant season. Cepeda is a superstar, but I might have done the deal just for Maris. We'll see.

[Pelican]

Gene Mauch

I don't want this sim to be seen as a criticism of Gene Mauch, the Manager of the Phils during the ill-fated 1964 Season. Too much blame has been heaped on him for the collapse, particularly his repeated efforts to close out the pennant race by starting Chris Short or Jim Bunning, when he had no other healthy starters (and the concept of a "bullpen game" was far in the future). Or critics say Mauch was too intense (he was in fact intense), forgetting that this intensity drove his unheralded and untested team to overplay most of the season.

As one of the OOTP factoids mentions, Mauch has more wins as a Manager than anyone who failed to get to the World Series. It's a classic backhanded compliment. He made mediocre teams better. Some players wilted under the pressure and tanked. Others took the ball and overachieved for him. He was decidedly old school, and loved to play the hot hand. He platooned. He was a fighter.

As OOTP teaches, a manager can only play the hand he is dealt. He can only work with the players he has, when they are healthy. Mauch literally ran out of players in 1964, despite the GM scrambling to find guys to plug in holes. His young arms (Mahaffey, Bennett) got sore, his old arms (McLish, Klippstein) ran out of gas. There was a bewildering series of injuries to first basemen. (Someone had injury set to frequent?). He played guys all over the field to compensate. He came up short.

So much of the unfair criticism of Mauch is 20/20 hindsight. Sure, if you knew you were going into a tailspin, you would throw in a few rookie starters and rest Short and Bunning, on the theory you only needed a few wins to clinch the pennant. But at the time, and I vividly recall it (albeit as a small child of 11/12), there was the sense that one or two decisive victories would do it, and everybody could rest and prepare for the World Series. Throughout the losing streak, they only needed a single victory to turn things around.

Maybe everybody in Philly was "seduced" by how well the team played. When Bunning pitched his Perfect Game on Father's Day, it seemed like a magical season in Philadelphia. Rich Allen was the sure-fire ROY and a generational talent. Johnny Callison won the ASG for the NL. Only the Giants seriously threatened, and the Phillies dispatched them in August. With so many young players, this did not seem like a team that would run out of gas, or run out of players.

So, the point of the sim is to take very seriously the hints of weakness that were there, if you chose to look, in Spring Training. Problem is, at the time, no one was looking for cracks in the facade, because the Phillies were not expected to contend. An imperfect team could still improve on the 87-75 record from a year before. In other words, these seemingly small issues would have had more emphasis, if anyone had expected this team would be in first place for most of the season.

Hence my worry over first base, SP depth, bullpen depth, middle IF depth, the bench in general. Trading Mahaffey, Klippstein, and McLish is a classic example of "selling high". The two older guys were unlikely to duplicate their 1963 seasons, and Mahaffey had been shut down at the end of 1963 with shoulder trouble. These were known issues in the Spring of 1964. A "pretender" can ride with them; but a contender needs to address them.

Mauch got the most out of his players. Even the ones who didn't really like him respected him. When you read the accounts of the 1964 choke, the players are not blaming the Manager. (The media did.) He kept his foot on the gas, expecting to cross that finish line, any day. Then he could let up. It never happened.

[jksander]

Great start .... Klippstein has been great on my 1953 Cubs team. Interesting trades ... will be fun to see how they work out

[Brad K]

Great thread title!

[Pelican]

Originally Posted by jksander

Great start .... Klippstein has been great on my 1953 Cubs team. Interesting trades ... will be fun to see how they work out

He had great numbers for the Phillies, but not getting any younger in 1964, so hence the “sell high” temptation.

Just read your latest update on the ‘53 Cubs. Exciting stuff. They’ve got a chance to catch the Braves!

[Pelican]

Sorry for the radio silence on this thread. I've been out in Iowa riding my bike, then at at the Jersey Shore chasing my grandchildren around. My Mac is a Mini; but not small enough to hit the road with me (I have a Dell laptop with different seasons loaded for the road trips). Finally back to business.

Still at the tail end of Spring Training, which extends well into April in this sim. The big news is another trade. The AI summary uses the "one man's garbage" narrative (which is lame and needs to be retired), despite the fact that it involves 1B Dick Stuart, traded to LA for star closer Ron Perranoski and solid SP prospect Phil Ortega. As the deal expanded (the LA GM saying "you're close, just need a little bit more"), I included Coco Laboy and a couple of pitching prospects (Paul Brown and Marcellino Lopez) for Jim Lefebvre (age 22 in AA last year but hit well).

I admit it. I got nervous about my pitching depth. Remember, I know full well how the "Heimlich" season played out for Philadelphia. They ran out of SP, and not much depth in the bullpen. Injuries, like poop, happen. Perranoski will likely become the closer, with 41/88/56 ratings, and a LHP. Ortega (13-9 and 3.92 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) looks ready to step into the rotation if needed. Lefebvre could well become my starting 2B, if Cookie Rojas fails to step up.

You would think that the departure of Stuart leaves a gaping hole at 1B - another key element of the Phils' collapse. It's a concern. I still have John Herrnstein, a lefty who makes contact. George Banks, acquired from Minnesota, has been hitting well in Spring games, can play all over, should make the team as a backup. Cal Emery, the 1964 version of a "AAAA" player, is an enigma. IRL he hit .295 with 207 HR over fourteen minor league seasons, with only his 1963 cup of java with the Phils. He has decent 49/47/68 ratings with better potential; although he is already 26. Worth a try, and he is hitting the cover off the ball in Spring Training.

But the big news is "Pancho" Herrera, the big Cuban 1B with solid MLB credentials. His bio from the SABR Project his well worth reading. After decent seasons for Philly in 1960 and 1961, he was blocked by the newly-acquired Roy Sievers. The Phils traded him to the Pirates, where he was blocked by Donn Clendenon. So he continued to clobber the ball in AAA and the winter leagues. I reacquired him, along with catcher Orlando McFarlane, from the the Bucks, for 2B Hank Allen (Dick's brother) and RHP Gary Kroll. We'll go with an Emery/Herrera platoon, with Banks getting some starts as well.

My guess/hope is that going for defense over offense makes sense for this team. The 1B will hit sixth or seventh in a pretty good lineup; although the C and SS at seven and eight are not going to contribute much offense. I hope that Gonzalez, Rojas, Allen, Callison, Covington/Johnson will hit hard. If everyone would only stay healthy (injuries are set to low), the pitching could be dominant. Not the Dodgers; but consistent.

The flaw in this approach is that Pancho, who started well enough, just went 0 for 4 and stranded five runners in a Spring game. Don Lock went 0 for 3 with three strikeouts. (The lads nevertheless easily defeated Pittsburgh, with Dennis Bennett hurling six shutout innings, Phil Ortega two, and Perranoski closing, so there!). Unheralded speedster 2B Nolan Campbell had two hits and scored three runs, stealing a base and making a great defensive play. Hey, it's the Spring, and high TCR produces surprises!

[Pelican]

Forgive me a quick digression on how OOTP handles the classic "AAAA" player, who dominates the minor leagues (and AAA), but never breaks through in MLB. The mention of Cal Emery above got me thinking about how, with development on and higher TCR, OOTP can improve on IRL. In my experience, AAAA stars are less likely to "flame out" in OOTP. They rarely turn into stars, and they don't duplicate their AAA stats; nor should they. But they also rarely turn out to be the total busts they were IRL. In short, their MLB performance tends to be roughly in the middle distribution of what you would expect, based on their minor league stats, age, and supporting ratings. Weird to say it, but this seems more "realistic" than the IRL outcome.

George Banks is another classic AAA player, with 232 HR in eleven minor league seasons, versus 219/.343/.409 in five partial MLB seasons and only 245 PA. He seems to have had the tools to excel.

It's fun to give these guys a "second chance" in OOTP, with at least the possibility that things will turn out better, between the randomness setting and the partial reliance of the game engine on minor-league performance. I expect that having at least some quality AB right out of Spring Training is a better test than the late-season callups these guys typically had. I use expanded rosters through Memorial Day, or the end of April in this sim, for just this reason. Let's see what a few promising if marginal players can do, before the final roster trim.

Any of you have thoughts on the "AAAA" issue?

Favorite "AAAA" players of all time, anyone?

[Pelican]

Another step in my relentless efforts improve the Phillies' pitching depth - or evidence of an overly-despondent view of the coming season (take your pick). Acquired veteran RP Ed Roebuck from the Senators with Paul Casanova (in the low minors at 22 with very mediocre ratings, and recall I am playing with high TCR...), for RHP Jackie Brown and C/LF Dave Watkins. Basically, Watkins had a tremendous year at Class A. IRL he would reach the majors in 1969 as a backup catcher for the Phils. Brown did not reach MLB until 1970, but had a respectable 47-53 career mark with a 4.19 ERA. Roebuck was actually acquired by the Phils from Washington in Spring 1964 IRL, and had an excellent season (5-3, 2.21, 12 saves). So, we'll see.

Roebuck's assessment (in 2009) of the Phils' 1964 collapse (from his SABR bio) is telling:

“Gene (Mauch, the Phillies’ manager) didn’t have a team to be where it was. The 1964 Phillies were not a pennant-winning-caliber team. If the season lasted long enough that would have eventually shown. By the end we were just trying to hang on. Gene did a great job to have us where we were. During those last two weeks I kept thinking ‘Oh no, somebody stop this thing.’ We were losing every crazy which way you could by then.”

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Pelican

Sorry for the radio silence on this thread. I've been out in Iowa riding my bike, then at at the Jersey Shore chasing my grandchildren around. My Mac is a Mini; but not small enough to hit the road with me (I have a Dell laptop with different seasons loaded for the road trips). Finally back to business.

Sound like you had a good time. Welcome back.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Pelican

Any of you have thoughts on the "AAAA" issue?

Favorite "AAAA" players of all time, anyone?

Carlos Bernier and Elvio Jiminez.

[Pelican]

Bernier was 37 in 1964 and had another great season in AAA (his last). I have a feeling he will stick with the Angels, and win a starting job in the OF. Plus some anger management therapy.

And the Yankees seem inclined to hold onto Jimenez as well. Too bad there is no DH in 1964. But a spare bat on the bench can’t hurt, and really, the competition is pretty weak. (The Yankees unaccountably traded Yogi Berra to the Mets, as a backup catcher rather than a manager.).

They each can compete with Emery and Banks for the AAAA award.

[Pelican]

Update on Bernier and Jimenez. They each hit a HR in their first Spring games as starters, for the Angels and Yanks, respectively. [I admit to some "adjustments" to their ratings as Commissioner. Neither had ratings reflective of their most recent seasons. Silvio is still a wretched fielder, of course. But they each have some pop and can make decent contact and will take a walk.] I also locked each into the MLB team, so the AI does not send them down. And I set daily lineups for both teams through April. Curious to see how they do in alternative '64.

[Brad K]

Thanks for the update on those guys. I saw Jiminez play in AAA with the Indianapolis Indians. Bernier got some playing time with me in the Pirates Moneyball save. In my current save starting 1961 Bernier being kept in the minors real life in the 50s was a reason for a meeting where GM Joe Brown chewed out the front office and scouts.

[Pelican]

So, I’m finally done with Spring Training, and looking at Opening Day. The schedule has the traditional games in D.C. and Cincy. The Phils open on the road against the Mutts. I’ll use Bunning and Short in the first two games.

ST ended on a downer, with the Phils dropping three games to the A’s at home, before sparse crowds at Connie Mack Stadium. I thought such an interleague series would draw well, just ten years after the A’s last season in Philadelphia. Rocky Colavito hit 5 HR in the three games. Not the way to prepare for the season.

Made the final cuts to get the roster down to 28 (until Memorial Day). At that point, I would likely drop one RP, one IF, one OF to get to 25; but we’ll see what happens. Banks, Emery, and Herrnstein (and Pancho Herrera) all made the team. Banks can play just about anywhere, so he’ll spell the OF and Allen at 3B, maybe even Rojas at 2B. Emery and Herrera will more or less platoon at 1B to start. Herrnstein is a good LF, so will spell Covington and Johnson. We’ll see who breaks out.

My biggest concern right now is middle IF and catcher. Triandos barely hit .100 in ST and looked bad. Dalrymple had a couple of HR over the weekend, so feeling better about him. Amaro hit and fielded well, so I left Bobby Wine in AAA. Rojas did not have a strong Spring at bat, which hurts because I am batting him second. He’s a high contact guy. Don’t want to rush Lefebvre, but his slugging could really help. Missing Tony Taylor about now at 2B.

The rotation will be Bunning, Short, Culp, Bennett, and Roberts, for now. Robin Roberts was shelled in his last two starts. I can’t figure out the problem. His velocity is up, but so are some of his pitches. He does give up HR. I need for him to settle down and be the consistent SP with great control that he was for the Orioles.

The bullpen looks absolutely stacked. I have Baldschun and Perranoski as closers, Wagner at a setup guy, Ryne Duren as a fireballing “Stopper”. Bobby Shantz and Grant Jackson are tough lefties. John Boozer and Ed Roebuck are experienced righties. I should be able to manage like it’s 2023 instead of 1964.

LA, SF, the Braves and Cincy look tough. We should be in the mix.