Stats & AI-League Totals, what are modifiers, again?

Larryk007 · 10-03-2023, 03:24 PM

1988 replay, 3180 homeruns hit, but the game adds a modifier of 1.007. Why I can't get my mind around this still bugs me. What is the game AI telling me? The game wants to add more homeruns than the IRL season totals, if so why?

thehef · 10-03-2023, 03:53 PM

Do you have "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season for historical accuracy" checked on the Stats & AI panel? If so, then I believe the 1.007 is an attempt by OOTP to get closer to the league-wide HR output for that (or the next, not sure where you are on the sim calendar) season. IOW, based upon the way I interpret this from the manual...

When you select this check box, the game will automatically make an adjustment to your league totals after each season, so that the results of the next season will be statistically close to the real-world historical ratio of that season. So, if your league overall hit .250 in 1980, and the real world league batting average for 1981 was .275, the game will automatically adjust your Hits league totals modifier to 1.100, because you need to get hits 10% more often than this past season to approximately match the real world values.

... OOTP is saying that based upon a comparison of 1980 real vs OOTP HR totals, it's adjusting the HR modifier upwards by .007 in order for 1981 OOTP HR totals to be closer to real 1981 HR totals... I could be wrong.

Assuming what I wrote above is true or in the ballpark, what's not clear to me is why OOTP - in determing targerts for 1981 HR's - is looking at 1980 HR totals instead of simply looking at real 1981 HR's and setting a target based upon that. Now, if OOTP is saying that it's 1980 HR totals fell short by 10%, so it's making a 10% adjustment to 1981 HR's to compensate for an expected 10% shortage (based upon the 1980 sim experience), I guess that would make sense...

Definitely an area of OOTP that's mysterious. However, I'm pretty sure that there are a few longtimers here that understand and can explain, so sit tight

Larryk007 · 10-03-2023, 04:10 PM

OK, that is exactly what I was thinking, but I just do not understand why OOTP is doing it. It must be as you said something mysterious!!!

snepp · 10-03-2023, 11:03 PM

The game is doing it because it thinks that small (very, very small) adjustment to the LTM will get the sim closer to where it needs to be at the end of the season. It does this by simming (3?) seasons, compares the results of those sims to the total wanted, and modifies the LTM appropriately.

An LTM of 1.007 is such a tiny, tiny change that it's still effectively 1.000 anyway.

10-03-2023, 03:24 PM	#1
Larryk007 Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 386	Stats & AI-League Totals, what are modifiers, again? 1988 replay, 3180 homeruns hit, but the game adds a modifier of 1.007. Why I can't get my mind around this still bugs me. What is the game AI telling me? The game wants to add more homeruns than the IRL season totals, if so why?

10-03-2023, 11:03 PM	#4
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,459	The game is doing it because it thinks that small (very, very small) adjustment to the LTM will get the sim closer to where it needs to be at the end of the season. It does this by simming (3?) seasons, compares the results of those sims to the total wanted, and modifies the LTM appropriately. An LTM of 1.007 is such a tiny, tiny change that it's still effectively 1.000 anyway. Last edited by snepp; 10-03-2023 at 11:05 PM.

10-03-2023, 03:53 PM	#2
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,291	Do you have "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season for historical accuracy" checked on the Stats & AI panel? If so, then I believe the 1.007 is an attempt by OOTP to get closer to the league-wide HR output for that (or the next, not sure where you are on the sim calendar) season. IOW, based upon the way I interpret this from the manual... When you select this check box, the game will automatically make an adjustment to your league totals after each season, so that the results of the next season will be statistically close to the real-world historical ratio of that season. So, if your league overall hit .250 in 1980, and the real world league batting average for 1981 was .275, the game will automatically adjust your Hits league totals modifier to 1.100, because you need to get hits 10% more often than this past season to approximately match the real world values. ... OOTP is saying that based upon a comparison of 1980 real vs OOTP HR totals, it's adjusting the HR modifier upwards by .007 in order for 1981 OOTP HR totals to be closer to real 1981 HR totals... I could be wrong. Assuming what I wrote above is true or in the ballpark, what's not clear to me is why OOTP - in determing targerts for 1981 HR's - is looking at 1980 HR totals instead of simply looking at real 1981 HR's and setting a target based upon that. Now, if OOTP is saying that it's 1980 HR totals fell short by 10%, so it's making a 10% adjustment to 1981 HR's to compensate for an expected 10% shortage (based upon the 1980 sim experience), I guess that would make sense... Definitely an area of OOTP that's mysterious. However, I'm pretty sure that there are a few longtimers here that understand and can explain, so sit tight

10-03-2023, 04:10 PM	#3
Larryk007 Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 386	OK, that is exactly what I was thinking, but I just do not understand why OOTP is doing it. It must be as you said something mysterious!!!