Player assessment

[Dutch Alexander]

How would you rate below player? Based on available data without seeing stats what is your opinion on this player?

[MathBandit]

Mediocre hitter, mediocre defender.

Can probably just about hold his own at the plate, and can be fine but not good at non-premium defensive positions. Will be a significant liability on the basepaths.

If I had him as the 11th or 12th guy on my bench as a utility guy, I'd be pretty okay with it. If he was a starter or platoon starter I'd be concerned.

[bostonredsox282]

Decent bat (probable high avg.) but middling defense make for a super sub primarily at 1B/3B/LF. Probably not a long career long term. Maybe an unconventional DH.

[mytreds]

Would be nice to see his height. Important for first baseman.

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by mytreds

Would be nice to see his height. Important for first baseman.

6'4" - 200 lbs

[Sweed]

I'd say a role player at best giving players rest while not hurting you too much at the plate while trying to keep him in LF, 1b, and RF,3b. I don't want him playing CF or thinking he could cover 2b in a pinch after some spring training time at the position. The below average glove (4 at all positions for error and DP) scares the hell out of me, I hate errors and I'd be cringing every time a ball was hit at him.

He'll put the ball in play but the eye kills being an every day player for me along with the weak glove. The lack of power means 1b as a starter is a no. Same for LF since he doesn't have great baserunning skills to help cover the lack of eye and power.

Now his 7 contact, under the hood, could be on the high side and approaching 8, while his eye could develop to the projected 4, which would add a lot of value. But his fielding would make me uncomfortable whenever he's in the lineup. If he were in my organization I'd be trying to move him for a better utility player giving up some contact for some fielding and an average eye.

[Pelican]

Useful pinch-hitter on a good team.

[Dutch Alexander]

A couple of seasons ago I considered signing this player as a FA. At the time he was entering his age 25 season and had never played at the highest level. This league is a 3 tier pro/reg league with HHK being the 2nd tier and IND the 3rd tier. There are 2 levels of combined Minor Leagues, AAA and single A (age limit 21). Below his stats at the end of his age 24 season at all levels.

I will let the poll run for a few more days and then share how I assessed him myself, what my decision was regarding signing him and I will show how he turned out. Perhaps an interesting case study.

[PSUColonel]

I would give him a grade of 55 or 60. His speed does account for something.. Without the speed he's a 55, with it he's a 60. I am also rating him as a 3B...as I feel that is likely where he would best be utilized.


If I have to choose an overall grade I’ll say 55

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I would give him a grade of 55 or 60. His speed does account for something.. Without the speed he's a 55, with it he's a 60. I am also rating him as a 3B...as I feel that is likely where he would best be utilized.


If I have to choose an overall grade I’ll say 55

His Speed is a pretty major downside, not upside. Turns him into a liability on the bases.

[CBLCardinals]

With the exception of speed, he looks like a Harold Ramirez of Tampa Bay type hitter.
Plus plus contact, doesn’t strike out much, doubles power, below average power and walks.

His defense doesn’t look that great except at 1B.

Id assume he would be a 2+ WAR player hitting something around
300 / 30 2B / 10 HR / 330-340 OBP with average defense at 1B.
Unlike Ramirez he probably can steal 30-50+ bases, but caught stealing a decent amount.

[Dijon-Main]

Can someone explain to me why him having such good speed is a downside? I feel like I'm missing some game mechanic or under-the-hood stat that you are all referencing.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Dijon-Main

Can someone explain to me why him having such good speed is a downside? I feel like I'm missing some game mechanic or under-the-hood stat that you are all referencing.

Speed is basically misnamed as a rating. It is really Stealing (maybe also baserunning?) Aggressiveness.

The mediocre Stealing/Baserunning ratings means he will actually get thrown out a lot stealing (maybe also trying to advance extra bases).

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Speed is basically misnamed as a rating. It is really Stealing (maybe also baserunning?) Aggressiveness.

The mediocre Stealing/Baserunning ratings means he will actually get thrown out a lot stealing (maybe also trying to advance extra bases).

Yup, basically this. 80 Speed / 50 Stealing/Baserunning means he's going to run as often as Tim Raines, but with the success of someone whose just average- and potential set career records in Caught Stealing.

[Dutch Alexander]

So this players name is Guus Hak and below you can see how he performed the past 3 years at the highest level.

The average consensus in the poll is that this is an average starter. (just a tick above average starter). My personal opinion on this player was that I considered him as a role player for my team. Granted at the time he was rated 6/8 for both Contact and Avoid K. What I liked about him was his above average Contact and Avoid K, a good combination leading to a good batting average. I also liked his versatility. Although his defence isn't great and he can't play any premium position it's still usefull. What I didn't like about him was his lack of Eye and Power. My expectation was that this would lead to a hollow good batting average with no more than decent OBP and SLG. I also wasn't impressed with his career stats. With an expected dropoff at the highest level he would be no more than adequate. His basestealing was also atrocious, caused by a high speed rating with an average steal rating, but this did not concern me as I play out my games and would simply not allow him to steal. Other factors to consider are that HR's in my league are only about 50% of modern MLB and my home park has large dimensions, suppressing HR's and increasing AVG, 2B's and 3B's.

In the end I decided he would be a usefull roleplayer and he was willing to sign a Minor League deal with Majors option so I signed him. Low risk signing with some upside. Later that offseason I traded for a strong defensive 3B with 4 years left on his contract. Not a strong hitter but with a groundball heavy rotation he was going to be my starting 3B. Both corner OF positions were manned by star players, both former MVP's and at 1B I had a young promising player ready. Meaning that there was no room in the starting lineup for Hak. My plan was to use him at various positions to rest players, to take over in case of injuries and use him as a pinch hitter. My expectations were not very high.

Well, he turned out to be great. He just kept hitting when I played him and as I played him more he just continued to hit. For a while his BA hovered around .400. In the meantime my glove first 3B Perez was not hitting at all so Hak got more and more playing time and by season's end he was my starting 3B. His defence was below average but his value as a hitter outweighed the defence of Perez. Hak won the batting title with an average of .373, at the time the league record. Still, his average was fueled by an insanely high BABIP of .427 so I was sceptical. I expected this was a fluke and his average would regress and he would lose most of his value. Despite this I resigned to a 3 year deal for $265,000, just a little above the $85,000 average salary for a starter in my league. I must confess that this was a bit of a spur-of-the -moment signing and I sorta regretted it after the fact. With Perez still under contract for 3 more years it didn't make much sense to keep both Hak and Perez on the roster, especially considering my small budget. In the end I decided that Perez was unlikely to start hitting and that Hak would be more valuable at 3B despite mediocre defence. I managed to trade away Perez for a usefull utility infielder and Hak was now my starting 3B.

Well, as you can see from his stats he turned out to be an absolute stud. His BABIP and AVG regressed as expected but remained high. His defence is poor, he has no HR power and he doesn't walk (3rd worst BB% in the league, minimum 100 PA). But he is an absolute doubles machine. This past season he broke the league record for doubles and led the league in Hits, Triples, Total Bases and Extra Basehits. Now with modern MLB HR totals he probably would not have led these last two categories with his lack of HR power. But since he led both by a country mile he would still be among the leaders. Looking at his Home / Away splits it's not that be benefitted from his homepark. He actuall did much better on the road, although BABIP does suggest he was lucky on the road and unlucky at home.

Now you could argue that this is still small sample size given that it's a short 88 game schedule but I think 236 career starts is significant. In my league 3+ WAR is superstar level and in the past season his 3.9 WAR was tied for 4th. In a 162 game schedule he would be a 6.5 WAR player. I was surprised by his performance, did not expect anything remotely like this. Makes me wonder if Running Speed has an influence on BABIP in the game. There is nothing in the manual about this, it only mentions the inluence on steal attempt and the ability to take an extra base.

Quote ===========================================
Speed
Speed is a measure of how quickly a player can run from one base to the next. Players with a high rating in Speed are more of a threat to steal bases, and are more likely to advance further on a ball in play. Running Speed is strictly for offensive play. For example, Speed does not factor into an outfielder's range. However, Speed and Defensive Range are linked internally. For example, as a player ages, his speed and range will generally decline at the same pace.
Unquote=========================================

In real life high running speed would lead to more infield hits, thus a higher BABAIP but I'm not sure that it's the same in the game. What is obvious is that his high number of 2B's and 3B's are fueled by his elite running speed (more likely to advance further on a ball in play). It makes me think that running speed is an undervalued skill in the game, especially if it has an efect on BABIP. I never realised it had such an effect on doubles and tripled, I always thought this was mainly triggered by Gap Power.

Bit of long story but I thought this was interesting. Seems to me that elite running speed with high contact, high avoid K and above average gap power is a really interesting combination. These players can be sneaky good. Hak's value is somewhat increased by the playing environment in this league and it remains to be seen how he continues to perform, but his performance so far has been way beyond what I expected.

[kidd_05_u2]

In my experience, the evaluation of the player depends on the type of league. In an offline standard MLB setting, the ratings of this player are average at worst. For an online league that maximizes player development? He is a role player.

I personally rated your guy as above average for your quirky league. I think many in this thread underrate how powerful the combination of a really high contact and avoid Ks is.

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by kidd_05_u2

In my experience, the evaluation of the player depends on the type of league. In an offline standard MLB setting, the ratings of this player are average at worst. For an online league that maximizes player development? He is a role player.

I personally rated your guy as above average for your quirky league. I think many in this thread underrate how powerful the combination of a really high contact and avoid Ks is.

Sure it depends on the league enironment. And I agree that many players probably underestimate the combination of a really high contact and avoid K's. But I also think you underestimate his running speed. This is what generates his doubles and triples prowess. I still think such a player would be a star in a modern MLB setting. High average with 50+ doubles, 10+ triples and 10+ HR's.

[rudel.dietrich]

Speed used to influence infield hits and also played a small role in EBH that were not homeruns.

This is old info, like OOTP 6.5 days

But I have a feeling that has carried over into the new engine.
My anecdotal evidence is that speed does help players get a few more hits and also more doubles and triples.

[MathBandit]

Can you provide a screenshot of the editor stats? I'm curious how he would perform in the modern MLB environment.

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

Can you provide a screenshot of the editor stats? I'm curious how he would perform in the modern MLB environment.

See below. Quite mediocre, but then in this environment his ratings would be much lower I guess.