If MLB Merged with the NNL in 1920...

[JerryShoe]

Like many baseball fans, I often wonder what the lifetime statistical landscape would look life had there not been a color barrier. Babe Ruth would not have hit 714 homers if he had to face the Bullet Rogens of the day, but how many would he have hit? 699? 643? Would Oscar Charlston reach the 3000-hat plateau? OOTP could be a good way to find out, if OOTP would be historically correct. I ran baseball from 1921 to 1976, the last year anyone who played in the Negro Leagues played in MLB (Henry "Hank" Aaron and Johnny "Blue Moon" Odom) and took a look at the "counting statistics" that are easiest on the eyes, discounting those that are dependent on factors other than player performance (steals, RBIs, saves). This left hits, homers and strikeouts. Listing those who had 3000 hits, 500 homers or 2400 K's by 1976 and played most of their career after 1920, I came up with 35 lines of stats, adding in Ernie Banks who had 500 "real" homers but only 462 in OOTP. I used 1-year recalc with historical transactions and lineups. The following is the chart showing the results:

Hits..........................OOTP.........Actual
Hank Aaron...............3902.... ....3771....reasonably close
Stan Musial...............3667.........3630....nearly correct
Roberto Clemente....3644.........3000....20% too high
Al Kaline....................3461........ 3007....15% too high
Willie Mays................3419........ 3293....reasonably close
Mel Ott.......................3340....... 2876....15% too high
Frank Robinson.........3273........2943....reasonably close
Paul Waner................3221........3152....reasonabl y close
Frankie Frisch............3184........2880....reasonably close
Al Simmons................3064........2927....reasona bly close
Charlie Gehringer.......3059........2839....reasonably close
Lou Brock...................3040........3023....nearly correct
Rogers Hornsby..........3015........2930....reasonably close

Home Runs................ OOTP.......Actual
Hank Aaron....................725........755....reasona bly close
Mickey Mantle................715........536....WAY too high
Frank Robinson..............673........586....15% too high
Babe Ruth.......................665........714....reaso nably close
Willie Mays......................641........660....nearly correct
Willie McCovey............... 614........521....20% too high
Mel Ott............................609........ 511....20% too high
Harmon Killebrew............604........573....reasonably close
Ted Williams....................572........521....reas onably close
Jimmie Foxx....................553........534....reasonab ly close
Eddie Mathews...............509........512....nearly correct
Stan Musial.....................501........475....reaso nably close
Ernie Banks....................462........512....10% too low

Strikeouts......................OOTP........Actual
Jim Bunning....................2776.......2855....reas onably close
Bob Gibson.....................2746........3117....15% too low
Mickey Lolich..................2601........2832....reason ably close
Bob Feller.......................2600........2581....r easonably close
Sam McDowell...............2586........2453....reasona bly close
Sandy Koufax................2557........2396....reasonab ly close
Warren Spahn...............2491........2583....reasonably close
Don Drysdale................ 2416........2486....reasonably close
Early Wynn....................2414........2334....reason ably close

big difference........1
20% difference......3
15% difference......4
10% difference..... 1
reasonably close..22
nearly correct........4
total....................35

The scenario I envision would be along the lines of the NHL/WHA and NBA/ABA mergers, where some upstart teams move into the established circuits. I would contract the Negro National League into 4 teams and place 2 in each established league for 2 10-team, 162 game season AL and NL. If there aren't enough players for this, I would disperse the NNL players among the 2 8-team circuits. Either way, there would be a bit of work involved. I was hoping for OOTP to be on point or totally out of whack so that making a decision to dedicate a lot of time creating this project or not would be an easy one. But this is a mixed bag; certain stat lines came to close to reality that the designers should get a standing ovation (look how close Brock came). But others, I mean Mickey "Muscles" Mantle was my first baseball hero, but 715 homers??? I guess with two-thirds being reasonably close or nearly correct, it's time to roll up my sleeves. Any thoughts on whether this is a worthwhile venture? Thanks!

[reflections]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

Like many baseball fans, I often wonder what the lifetime statistical landscape would look life had there not been a color barrier. Babe Ruth would not have hit 714 homers if he had to face the Bullet Rogens of the day, but how many would he have hit? 699? 643? Would Oscar Charlston reach the 3000-hat plateau? OOTP could be a good way to find out, if OOTP would be historically correct. I ran baseball from 1921 to 1976, the last year anyone who played in the Negro Leagues played in MLB (Henry "Hank" Aaron and Johnny "Blue Moon" Odom) and took a look at the "counting statistics" that are easiest on the eyes, discounting those that are dependent on factors other than player performance (steals, RBIs, saves). This left hits, homers and strikeouts. Listing those who had 3000 hits, 500 homers or 2400 K's by 1976 and played most of their career after 1920, I came up with 35 lines of stats, adding in Ernie Banks who had 500 "real" homers but only 462 in OOTP. I used 1-year recalc with historical transactions and lineups. The following is the chart showing the results:

Hits..........................OOTP.........Actual
Hank Aaron...............3902.... ....3771....reasonably close
Stan Musial...............3667.........3630....nearly correct
Roberto Clemente....3644.........3000....20% too high
Al Kaline....................3461........ 3007....15% too high
Willie Mays................3419........ 3293....reasonably close
Mel Ott.......................3340....... 2876....15% too high
Frank Robinson.........3273........2943....reasonably close
Paul Waner................3221........3152....reasonabl y close
Frankie Frisch............3184........2880....reasonably close
Al Simmons................3064........2927....reasona bly close
Charlie Gehringer.......3059........2839....reasonably close
Lou Brock...................3040........3023....nearly correct
Rogers Hornsby..........3015........2930....reasonably close

Home Runs................ OOTP.......Actual
Hank Aaron....................725........755....reasona bly close
Mickey Mantle................715........536....WAY too high
Frank Robinson..............673........586....15% too high
Babe Ruth.......................665........714....reaso nably close
Willie Mays......................641........660....nearly correct
Willie McCovey............... 614........521....20% too high
Mel Ott............................609........ 511....20% too high
Harmon Killebrew............604........573....reasonably close
Ted Williams....................572........521....reas onably close
Jimmie Foxx....................553........534....reasonab ly close
Eddie Mathews...............509........512....nearly correct
Stan Musial.....................501........475....reaso nably close
Ernie Banks....................462........512....10% too low

Strikeouts......................OOTP........Actual
Jim Bunning....................2776.......2855....reas onably close
Bob Gibson.....................2746........3117....15% too low
Mickey Lolich..................2601........2832....reason ably close
Bob Feller.......................2600........2581....r easonably close
Sam McDowell...............2586........2453....reasona bly close
Sandy Koufax................2557........2396....reasonab ly close
Warren Spahn...............2491........2583....reasonably close
Don Drysdale................ 2416........2486....reasonably close
Early Wynn....................2414........2334....reason ably close

big difference........1
20% difference......3
15% difference......4
10% difference..... 1
reasonably close..22
nearly correct........4
total....................35

The scenario I envision would be along the lines of the NHL/WHA and NBA/ABA mergers, where some upstart teams move into the established circuits. I would contract the Negro National League into 4 teams and place 2 in each established league for 2 10-team, 162 game season AL and NL. If there aren't enough players for this, I would disperse the NNL players among the 2 8-team circuits. Either way, there would be a bit of work involved. I was hoping for OOTP to be on point or totally out of whack so that making a decision to dedicate a lot of time creating this project or not would be an easy one. But this is a mixed bag; certain stat lines came to close to reality that the designers should get a standing ovation (look how close Brock came). But others, I mean Mickey "Muscles" Mantle was my first baseball hero, but 715 homers??? I guess with two-thirds being reasonably close or nearly correct, it's time to roll up my sleeves. Any thoughts on whether this is a worthwhile venture? Thanks!

I'm curious if Mickey had the same injuries as in RL, that might be what caused such an increase in his home runs.

[luckymann]

He used historical lineups, so it shouldn't have played any significant part.

[JerryShoe]

I did do historical transactions and lineups, yet everyone ended up with more playing time that they should have. Mantle missed 3 games in 1964 and 2 in 1966...otherwise he started every single game from '64 to '68! As a result he had 2906 career OOTP game starts as opposed to his actual 2699. Pro-rated, he would have 601 which is down quite a bit from 715, but still 10%-15% too high.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

I did do historical transactions and lineups, yet everyone ended up with more playing time that they should have. Mantle missed 3 games in 1964 and 2 in 1966...otherwise he started every single game from '64 to '68! As a result he had 2906 career OOTP game starts as opposed to his actual 2699. Pro-rated, he would have 601 which is down quite a bit from 715, but still 10%-15% too high.

Yeah, that's perhaps not the thing to look for here as historical txns only handle starting lineups, not substitutions. So a lot of those are likely PH opportunities or partial games. Check out his PA / AB figures for a better guide, I reckon.

EDIT, sorry - just re-read that. If those starts figures are correct then something went amiss with the save. He should only have started the exact amount of games he did IRL.

[JerryShoe]

Those numbers are games started, not as a substitute PH. OOTP had him start every game in his last 2 years, and I double-checked the setting in case I messed something up, too. Aaron and Mays also had slightly more games started than history, but not to this degree. But I guess I may well go ahead with my project and I'm sure ask you advice on how to proceed.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

Those numbers are games started, not as a substitute PH. OOTP had him start every game in his last 2 years, and I double-checked the setting in case I messed something up, too. Aaron and Mays also had slightly more games started than history, but not to this degree. But I guess I may well go ahead with my project and I'm sure ask you advice on how to proceed.

I definitely think it's a worthwhile venture and those anomalies might well be a blessing in disguise thanks to them having tempered your expectations somewhat.

As you can see from my signature, I have all sorts of experience with different setups but one thing I am yet to do is a full minors NeL save. I wanted to wait until I felt the game has the NeL guys where I feel they should be. I have done a bunch of work on NeLers (check out my Eclipse League save) and this has almost always involved my own curated versions of NeL players. That said, v24 (and 23 before it) has moved the needle plenty in this regard so the big guys at least are getting close.

For mine, the two biggest hurdles with the kind of replay you are proposing are the interaction between the NeL and MLB guys and the fact that you have to deploy historical minors for the NeL guys to appear. Over time that means the file size gets huge, so I'd recommend cutting corners where possible such as having Facegens for just those who make it to the majors, culling messages regularly and keeping all of the various logs at 2 years max.

Be very interested to see how you go and wish you the best of luck with it.

G

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

Those numbers are games started, not as a substitute PH. OOTP had him start every game in his last 2 years, and I double-checked the setting in case I messed something up, too. Aaron and Mays also had slightly more games started than history, but not to this degree. But I guess I may well go ahead with my project and I'm sure ask you advice on how to proceed.

BTW this is proof that something was amiss. By its very definition, historical lineups mean exactly that. So if he was starting more in your save than the corresponding historical data shows then for whatever reason it wasn't working.

[JerryShoe]

I follow your projects, which is why I said I'm sure I'll ask your advice when the time comes (which may as well not be until the spring, when a hopefully more NeL user-friendly OOTP25 comes out). Thanks for your input.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

I follow your projects, which is why I said I'm sure I'll ask your advice when the time comes (which may as well not be until the spring, when a hopefully more NeL user-friendly OOTP25 comes out). Thanks for your input.

Cool, feel free to DM me and we can exchange emails to make the dialogue easier.

G