Some advice sought

[luckymann]

Interested to hear some thoughts on this issue and appreciate any input at all.

I am simply seeing too many career MiLBers making appearances in my Oakland save. Mainly pitchers, with the incidence of this with SP seemingly on the rise (I recently had a run of four opposing SP being in this category).

I had my AI eval settings at 52/26/16/6 and have just ticked them down a bit to 50/30/15/5.

Then I wondered - am I moving these the wrong or right way to remedy this problem? Is it even an Eval issue or coming from elsewhere in the settings? Or is it just one of those quirks of the game one has to tolerate?

I want some of these guys to see action - I really enjoy that aspect of this type of save - but it just seems to be overkill with the current settings and I'd like to rein it in a bit.

As I said, grateful for any thoughts on the matter.

G

[Brad K]

I don't understand how that would affect these guys making it to MLB. Maybe I'm missing something.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I don't understand how that would affect these guys making it to MLB. Maybe I'm missing something.

You may well be right bud. I just thought allocating more to stats and less to ratings would make the AI less likely to promote MiLBers that didn't deserve it.

[Brad K]

If there are too many career minor league SPs making MLB then the problem is how many are rated MLB quality based on their minor league record.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

If there are too many career minor league SPs making MLB then the problem is how many are rated MLB quality based on their minor league record.

Which is why I'm thinking have less weight on the ratings derived from those stats would alleviate the issue. Might be wrong, hope someone can clarify one way or the other.

[luckymann]

Just by way of example, here is the recent run of SP we've faced in the OAK save, season 1975:

• Paul Haugen (never made it above A-ball IRL)
• Robert Hall (never even made A-ball IRL)
• Robert Giesler (again, A- was his highest IRL level)
• Jim Michal (one IRL season, spent at A-level)
• Jim Crawford, Frank Tanana (no problems with either)
• David Evans (one IRL season, spent at Rookie-level)

Now, one or two over that stretch? Sure.

But something is rotten in Denmark, methinks, to have so many guys making such big leaps and some of them are having multiple MLB-season careers in this timeline.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Which is why I'm thinking have less weight on the ratings derived from those stats would alleviate the issue. Might be wrong, hope someone can clarify one way or the other.

I think we're talking about different stats. You're talking about RL stats and I'm talking about the player stats produced by the game. I'm certain AI looks at the stats produced by the game not the historical stats. If it were looking at historical stats that's essentially looking at ratings twice.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Just by way of example, here is the recent run of SP we've faced in the OAK save, season 1975:

• Paul Haugen (never made it above A-ball IRL)
• Robert Hall (never even made A-ball IRL)
• Robert Giesler (again, A- was his highest IRL level)
• Jim Michal (one IRL season, spent at A-level)
• Jim Crawford, Frank Tanana (no problems with either)
• David Evans (one IRL season, spent at Rookie-level)

Now, one or two over that stretch? Sure.

But something is rotten in Denmark, methinks, to have so many guys making such big leaps and some of them are having multiple MLB-season careers in this timeline.

I agree that is too many however sample size requirements of large numbers apply to both the total sample size and the number of events being tracked. Five doesn't qualify as a large number.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I agree that is too many however sample size requirements of large numbers apply to both the total sample size and the number of events being tracked. Five doesn't qualify as a large number.

Oh dear Lord. Et tu, Brute?

[Brad K]

You know sample size is the answer to every complaint! LOL.

[Brad K]

OK, here's some data. I haven't analyzed it.

Historical minors, save date May 3 1964, save start 1961, total 500 players on Active MLB Rosters

Career Minor League Players On MLB Active Rosters



Baltimore
SP Harley Anderson
3B Charles Embrey
3B James Livesey
CF Ramon Alston

Boston
CC Gary Rushing
2B Domingo Carrasquel
LF Thomas Yost

Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs
SP Donald Flynn
RP Jerome Brown

Cincinnati
CL Edward Stein

Cleveland
RP C W Price
CF Richard Allen
RF James Satalich

Detroit
SP Raymond Cordiero
1B Danny Midgette
3B Carry Overstreet
3B Jesse Queen
CF Legrant Scott

Houston
SP Joseph Flood
SP Bill Lindner
RP Raymond Armstrong

Kansas City
SP Jim Mofio
SP Jerome Rozmus
RP Bruce Haroldson
RP Gordon Riese
CC Pete Codella
CC James Tanner
SS Pedro Mayari
LF Tom McDonald
CF Lee Stevenson

Los Angeles Angels
2B Fabio Fiallo
SS Russell Nelson
RF Grimm Mason

Los Angeles Dodgers
RP James Gibbs
CC Jim Koranda
CF Fred Woessner
RF Michael Strickland

Milwaukee
1B Wenton Etheridge
2B Joe Rowe

Minnesota Twins
RP Jim Fuloli
RP Richard Tams
RP DeLon Thompson
2B Charles Isles
CF Levi Brown
CF Chuck Weatherspoon

New York Yankees
SS Luke Lamboley
RF Charles Keller

New York Mets
SP James Reiter
RP Antonio Diaz
SS Kevin Scrpelli
CF Donald Davis

Philadelphia
SP Tito Barcenas
CC Fred Walters

Pittsburgh
2B Gilbert Watts

San Francisco
SP Henry Pawlowicz
RF Henry Hill

St Louis
SP Leo Newton
RP Mike Tatro
SS Victor Lowinger
CF Jimmie McDaniel

Washington
SP Bernard Kazakavich
SP Lon Morton
SP John Zahn
RP Richard Cassani
CC Felix DeLeon
2B Charles Armstrong
LF Pablo Mitchell
CF Harold Richie
RF Leon Douglas

[luckymann]

Thanks Bradley my friend, here's the Bay save on 05/23/75; just pitchers, which is where the problem clearly lies:

Braves

SP Dan Greenhalgh, Jessie Hill
RP John Hankammer, James Healey, Tomas Johnson, Jim Koering, Raymond Zappone, Dennis Lingenfelter


Orioles

SP William Graves, Terry Williams
RP Joseph DeLuise, Robert Gause, Randolph Brunner


Red Sox

SP Daniel Bielski
RP Denny Taylor, Leo Edge


Angels

SP David Evans
RP Pat Knutzen, James Marshall, James Raynor


White Sox

SP Robert Giesler, Jim Michal
RP Edward Davis, Robert Hall, Steve Kokor


Cubs

SP Gerald Lensing, Tom Moore
RP David Colon, Daniel Roberts, Donald Roth, Roberto Ruiz, Blas Mazon


Just a AL clubs from here on, I think my point has been made...


Indians

SP Thomas Bell
RP Douglas Duffie, Jose Ramirez


Tigers

SP Pedro Reinoso
RP Elmer Gregory, Francis Mulligan


Royals

SP John Hilts, Gary Schlieve
RP Byron Dismukes, Larry Hubbard, Darroll Phillips


Brewers

SP Herbert Doebler, Don Gregson
RP William Osborne


Twins

SP Stephen Hertz
RP John Jackson, Joe Reyda


Yankees

SP Thomas Jones


Rangers

SP Frank Mohr, Michael Wills
RP Bing Bingham, Bill Ferrell, Frank Ward, Thomas O'Connor


So we're talking between 33 and 50% of pitching staffs around the league being composed of career MiLBers. Which is too high by a degree of one or two, I reckon. Should be more like 10-20%, tops, wouldn't you say?

The problem goes beyond this again when you look at who's on the 40-man rosters and see all the MLB guys constantly on the WW. EG Age-25 Bruce Kison for the Tigers seems perpetually on the shuttle run.

Like I said, I want there to be a few who make the leap, but this is way above that sort of level.

G

[Brad K]

Assuming 5 SPs, 5 RPs and 15 position players per team in my save the percentages of category are

SP 14%
RP 13%
Position players 14%
Overall 13.8%

I wonder how the age of the save affects this. The first year with players assigned historically it might be the percentage of career minor leaguers is low and over time the percentage increases. I mention that because the save I used is just into its fourth year.

[Brad K]

There's something else that may be boosting the percentages in my save. It's 1964. It's still in the era where in many organizations a Black player wouldn't be in the majors unless he was a star. In others he had to be good enough to be a regular. The bench stayed white long after Jackie Robinson started playing in Brooklyn.

So Black players could produce minor league numbers good enough to make MLB in OOTP but would stay in the minors in real life.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Assuming 5 SPs, 5 RPs and 15 position players per team in my save the percentages of category are

SP 14%
RP 13%
Position players 14%
Overall 13.8%

I wonder how the age of the save affects this. The first year with players assigned historically it might be the percentage of career minor leaguers is low and over time the percentage increases. I mention that because the save I used is just into its fourth year.

Yeah, so as I've been noting with the Dream Weavers posts along the way, the main issue is with RP although SP numbers are on the high side as well.

We'll just have to see if things sort themselves out as it doesn't seem like anybody's chiming in with thoughts on the OP.

I'm also having troubles where the AI simply refuses to use our Closer Rollie Fingers anywhere near the degree he should be deployed, so I could be jumping at shadows a wee bit.

[Brad K]

The four expansion teams combined are at 19%. The two best teams according to pre season predictions (White Sox and Pirates) are at 2%.

Maybe we're the only ones playing full minors.

[Brad K]

Another possible cause of lots of career minor league SPs is the issue raised by uruguru in the pitcher stamina thread in the general discussion forum. Basically he's saying stamina gets rated on usage not ability and so OOTP ends up with five pitchers per team with SP stamina. So if a team ends up with a capable SP as long reliever some other team is going to be short a starter and will look to the minors for someone with stamina.

[Brad K]

If we consider offensive players to be those playing 1B, LF, and RF...

If we assume an average of 5.5 players per team in those positions (I didn't count)...

Then the percentage of career minor leaguers in those positions is 7.3%. The sample size isn't meaningful but if it's correct it appears that OTTP isn't creating offensive stars out of career minor leaguers.

What I've noticed (purely anecdotal) is career minor league position players with the best chance at the majors are good defenders who drew a lot of minor league walks.I haven't seen one with a great BA.

[David Watts]

Any of these guys having any success in the big leagues? If so, does the success carry over to the next season? I had Maury Wills win a rookie of the year and even tally some MVP votes in a season way prior to his big league debut. He never seen a big league field for the next 2 seasons. Spent them in the minors.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Any of these guys having any success in the big leagues? If so, does the success carry over to the next season? I had Maury Wills win a rookie of the year and even tally some MVP votes in a season way prior to his big league debut. He never seen a big league field for the next 2 seasons. Spent them in the minors.

A bunch - more so pitchers, as mentioned above. And it seems to be escalating. These are only the ones I have noticed and shortlisted, there are untold more.