Historical home runs are low

[sprague]

Here is a 1920 game, out of the box set up career, with minor leagues.
Negro leagues were on but I brought Oscar Charlston over as a test.


Babe Ruth should not hit 29 home runs in 1920 and 24 in 1921. Especially playing in the Polo Grounds which should inflate his home run total.


It seems that the real big home run hitters historically are the one that tend to get the largest reductions. Seeing the same thing with Hank Aaron and Ted Williams for example. Oddly Willie Stargell seems to turn out as expected.

[Lukas Berger]

Just something like bringing in Charleston can have a huge effect in the early seasons here, given that there are very, very few HR's to go around in the league as a whole and Ruth takes such a relatively high percentage of them.

[thehef]

What do HR's look like in your two minor leagues, NeLg & Texas Lg?

NeLg HR's should be about 2.27% of hits, .57% of AB's, and .52% of PA's... Tx Lg s/b 1.96%, .5%, and .46%...

Along those lines, how do HR totals look in your MLB?

[LansdowneSt]

It's not just Charleston (but seeing him on the leaderboard means it's definably him as a part of it). Any better minor leaguer that came up and filled a roster spot and got more HR than the person that was there in real life, was stealing home runs. So, if the bottom that used to have virtually no HR, gets elevated totals, then so the top must also come down as those HRs get taken. Ruth still led the league though, so he still had the biggest bucket of HR ability that the game was trying to fill with his proportional share.

[David Watts]

You say out of the box. So I assume recalc is off?

[Brad K]

I would argue that LTMs to more harm than good. But the game is incapable of coming close to anything realistic without LTMs and on top of that tested and adjusted LTMs so despite their undesirability they have a benefit.

Ratings based on real life performance can't provide realistic output.

Ratings based on real life performance and modified with real life LTMs can't provide realistic output.

Ratings based on real life performance modified with a LTM file that has first been tested three times against the ratings and adjusted based on tests can provide realistic output.

It's amazing what computers can do. Just amazing.

Such an improvement over what's below which with ratings alone could provide realistic performance.

[sprague]

So here is out of the box, no minor leagues or negro players
Ruth is still low for 1920, better for 1921.
But this is telling more information of how the game engine operates

[Garlon]

When you do a career mode with recalc enabled and automatically expand league enabled, OOTP forces you to use Low for position player fatigue unless you remember to override it each season. I disagree with this and it does suppress bigger totals for players. I was getting fantastic results using my own strategy settings and setting position player fatigue to high.

When you set fatigue to high you actually will generate better production from the top players because the weaker hitters on the bench will get their share of AB during the season.

You should also play with retire according to history enabled so that you do not have excess talent in the league which will also suppress league leaders.

Your batter and pitcher adjust/weaken settings will also play a role too.

[sprague]

Originally Posted by Garlon

When you do a career mode with recalc enabled and automatically expand league enabled, OOTP forces you to use Low for position player fatigue unless you remember to override it each season. I disagree with this and it does suppress bigger totals for players. I was getting fantastic results using my own strategy settings and setting position player fatigue to high.

When you set fatigue to high you actually will generate better production from the top players because the weaker hitters on the bench will get their share of AB during the season.

You should also play with retire according to history enabled so that you do not have excess talent in the league which will also suppress league leaders.

Your batter and pitcher adjust/weaken settings will also play a role too.

Thanks for your insights Garlon, you have been such a key person of information on the historical game for so many years.
I switched up to moderate fatigue, and the results are below.
What i have found a challenge is how many players "up" their totals such as in the NL here, Kelly, Meusel, and Elmer Smith are around 25% above their expected totals.
I have been noticing this in most of my games, that increase in home runs comes from lets say the second to third tier of home run guys, while the top guys tend to stay at or below what would be expected of them, as if the best HR guys are getting hurt by the engine.
This does not seem to happen with batting average, the guys generally expected to be at the top seem to be so.


Thank you for chiming in on the discussion. Its appreciated as I look ahead to when I am ready to start a full historical league, to determine the look of it, modifiers used ect.

[Brad K]

My impression was that injuries default to low because people who are actually playing the game as manager or GM rather than running tests don't like it when their star players are injured.

And retire according to history, well, that makes it safe to sign an aging star to the ridiculously long multi year contract he is asking for because you know he will retire. An issue for people who play as GM but of course irrelevant to those who watch OOTP as the unemployed Commissioner.

Concerning the talent being too high without retire according to history, OOTP should be taking other players out early via career ending injury.

[augustus_gloop]

Ready for the extreme opposite of that? Historical rookies in a large league. Dude's career turned out a bit better..

So many questions. I'm not sure which year is funnier. 1873? 1877?

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Just something like bringing in Charleston can have a huge effect in the early seasons here, given that there are very, very few HR's to go around in the league as a whole and Ruth takes such a relatively high percentage of them.

hey man, I really do love OOTP but hopefully you can realize how bonkers this sounds to more casual players who do not understand how the league total modifiers work.

I have no idea what a proper solution to this behavior should be but it's obviously very counter-intuitive that adding a new hitter to a league would affect the output of other hitters in the league.

And yeah, something like this is probably only noticeable during the transition out of the deadball era. I wonder if averaging the league totals along the same range as the player ratings would mitigate it. Probably wouldn't matter since a strict adherence to league totals only matters in the 1-year historical transactions games which probably hardly anyone plays, tbh.