Less Spread in SP K/9 compared to MLB and prior versions

atlbrave1 · 11-15-2024, 01:08 PM

Using v97 (saw similar issues in prior versions).

Ran a fictional sim for 20 years using MLB setup with out of the box settings except for injuries turned up to High - Modern Realistic and no league evolution. For Year 20, looked at K per 9 for qualified starting pitchers and noted that the spread between high and low seemed too close together. Reviewed data compared to league average and noted that 1 SD of K per 9 was .83.

Ran 20 years in OOTP23 and OOTP24 with out of the box settings.
OOTP 23 Yr 20: 1 SD of K/9 was 1.31 for qualified starting pitchers
OOTP 24 Yr 20: 1 SD of K/9 was 1.61 for qualified starting pitchers.

Looking at some MLB seasons:
1986: 1.44
1987: 1.39
1996: 1.34
1997: 1.70
2010: 1.44
2011: 1.46
2024: 1.27
2024 (expand qualifiers to 130 IP to get similar amount of pitchers): 1.43

Seems like there is still something in player creation/development that changed from prior versions which is leading to a lot of similarity in starting pitchers.

Just wondering if this was a purposeful decision and if so, why does it appear to not track to MLB data?

Note: Anyone with better data skills than me (probably lots), feel free to let me know how I screwed up. Was just trying to find best way to describe what felt like clustered results (i.e., lots of similar stat line starting pitchers).

Additional Note: Just looked at sim built with PCMS and Totals for 80's stats: Yr 35: 1 SD of K/9 was .78.

Murcer · 11-18-2024, 08:36 PM

I noticed this as well. Seems that the k ratings for pitchers aren't highly differentiated so if you up the strikeouts in the league totals, it just distributes them across all pitchers.

Garlon · 11-18-2024, 08:57 PM

Try going to League Settings>Stats & AI and lower the Pitcher Stamina to Very Low and try again.

It could also be in your fictional league that there is just too much SP talent, which is causing some compression. So rather than the pitchers not being differentiated enough, in actuality there is just so much pitching talent at the MLB level that there is not enough spread in ratings from top to bottom.

Do you have the Development Lab enabled? Maybe the development labs are working too good for pitchers?

Murcer · 11-19-2024, 05:03 AM

I've played thousands of test seasons ahead of starting my OOTP25 league and have tinkered with settings to get the strikeouts right to no avail. However, I haven't set stamina to very low - how might that address this issue?

I don't think it's a quirk of my league since I've seen this over thousands of seasons. And no, I don't use the Development Lab.

Besides this Ks thing, the other issue I've come across, and which I feel is a bigger problem, is the issue with right handed hitters: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=358632

I've stopped playing the game in hopes that one will be addressed.

atlbrave1 · 11-19-2024, 10:31 AM

Ran a simulation using Very Low stamina. Less spread than when Stamina was on low.

1 SD of K/9 was .74.

Development Lab was On as that was part of the default settings. I might run one sim with it off, but I highly doubt that is the culprit based on Murcer's reply.

11-15-2024, 01:08 PM	#1
atlbrave1 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 277	Less Spread in SP K/9 compared to MLB and prior versions Using v97 (saw similar issues in prior versions). Ran a fictional sim for 20 years using MLB setup with out of the box settings except for injuries turned up to High - Modern Realistic and no league evolution. For Year 20, looked at K per 9 for qualified starting pitchers and noted that the spread between high and low seemed too close together. Reviewed data compared to league average and noted that 1 SD of K per 9 was .83. Ran 20 years in OOTP23 and OOTP24 with out of the box settings. OOTP 23 Yr 20: 1 SD of K/9 was 1.31 for qualified starting pitchers OOTP 24 Yr 20: 1 SD of K/9 was 1.61 for qualified starting pitchers. Looking at some MLB seasons: 1986: 1.44 1987: 1.39 1996: 1.34 1997: 1.70 2010: 1.44 2011: 1.46 2024: 1.27 2024 (expand qualifiers to 130 IP to get similar amount of pitchers): 1.43 Seems like there is still something in player creation/development that changed from prior versions which is leading to a lot of similarity in starting pitchers. Just wondering if this was a purposeful decision and if so, why does it appear to not track to MLB data? Note: Anyone with better data skills than me (probably lots), feel free to let me know how I screwed up. Was just trying to find best way to describe what felt like clustered results (i.e., lots of similar stat line starting pitchers). Additional Note: Just looked at sim built with PCMS and Totals for 80's stats: Yr 35: 1 SD of K/9 was .78.

11-18-2024, 08:36 PM	#2
Murcer Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 271	I noticed this as well. Seems that the k ratings for pitchers aren't highly differentiated so if you up the strikeouts in the league totals, it just distributes them across all pitchers.

11-18-2024, 08:57 PM	#3
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,268	Try going to League Settings>Stats & AI and lower the Pitcher Stamina to Very Low and try again. It could also be in your fictional league that there is just too much SP talent, which is causing some compression. So rather than the pitchers not being differentiated enough, in actuality there is just so much pitching talent at the MLB level that there is not enough spread in ratings from top to bottom. Do you have the Development Lab enabled? Maybe the development labs are working too good for pitchers?

11-19-2024, 05:03 AM	#4
Murcer Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 271	I've played thousands of test seasons ahead of starting my OOTP25 league and have tinkered with settings to get the strikeouts right to no avail. However, I haven't set stamina to very low - how might that address this issue? I don't think it's a quirk of my league since I've seen this over thousands of seasons. And no, I don't use the Development Lab. Besides this Ks thing, the other issue I've come across, and which I feel is a bigger problem, is the issue with right handed hitters: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=358632 I've stopped playing the game in hopes that one will be addressed.

11-19-2024, 10:31 AM	#5
atlbrave1 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 277	Ran a simulation using Very Low stamina. Less spread than when Stamina was on low. 1 SD of K/9 was .74. Development Lab was On as that was part of the default settings. I might run one sim with it off, but I highly doubt that is the culprit based on Murcer's reply.