Massive meltdown--Is there a setting that causes this?

[eauhomme]

I've often wondered if there is a setting that gets triggered to cause a complete collapse of a team in a game.

A couple years ago I had a single game with five bullpen meltdowns (the offense kept bringing the game back only to lose it again with the next pitcher).

Here, I have a game in which 11 batters in a row reach base with 3 different pitchers, leading to 8 runs, and then oddly, striking out the side to end it.

5th inning, leading 4-2, DJ Herz (starter): BB, HBP, 1B
Gabe Speier: 2-RBI 1B, 1B, RBI HBP, RBI 1B
Calvin Faucher: RBI 1B, 2-RBI 2B, HBP, RBI 1B, K, K, K.

6 singles, 1 double, 1 BB, 3 HBP, 3 K, 8 runs.

The game didn't get much better after this. My bullpen was already taxed and I had to go to my two closers to mop up. Andres Munoz and Robert Garcia both gave up 2 runs in an inning, Munoz on a HBP and 2 doubles, while Garcia gave up a single and a homer. In the end, the final was 14-7.

And we can't blame it on the White Sox being a terrible team. They came into the game 78-52 and with one of the best defenses in the league (3rd in defensive efficiency, 1st in ERA, AVG, and OBP, 3rd in SLG), while the Red Sox were 82-48.

[Brad K]

Can't imagine there's a setting that causes this. I'm inclined to believe there is an in game pitcher streak, without it being enough to light up the cold or hot icon. I don't have an opinion on a team pitching meltdown. (Maybe there's something in the bullpen Gatorade container!)

[kq76]

Yes, they're called the injury frequency settings (there are two).

You'll think you're doing fine and then you get an injury to a good starter or a reliever, doesn't matter, and so you need to play someone not as good not only at their spot, but also at the spot the replacement was at and all the way down the rotation or bullpen. And then you get another and another and soon enough your staff is a mix of a few pitchers you were counting on, a bunch of guys you were hoping you wouldn't have to count on too much, AAA pitchers you really hoped you wouldn't have to count on at all, and even some guys who weren't at all on your radar whom you had to acquire.

And an injury to a rotation or bullpen guy doesn't just impact that part of your staff, but the other part too. For example, if you lose a good starter, you'll probably have to play the replacement starter, and all the starters behind him, less innings than you get from the injured guy, which means you'll have to use your bullpen more. And if you lose 2 or 3 good bullpen guys you'll probably try extending your starters more which will in turn increase their risk of injury and on and on.

Can you tell I've been experiencing a vicious onslaught of injuries to my staff lately? :P Last year we had the best record in the league by 8 games and this year we're very much at risk of falling to 3rd in the division and not making the playoffs. It's okay, I like the challenge and I have both settings set to high/realistic.

[eauhomme]

But in neither this game nor the 5-meltdown game I mentioned was there any indication of a pitcher's injury. Nor did either involve pitchers who were brought up from the minors. They were just examples where every single option I put out there fell apart.

What are the odds that 11 straight batters reach base? Assuming a .333 OBP, a 1 in 3 chance of reaching, we're looking at:

Reach base once: 1 in 3 times.
Twice in a row: 1 in 9
Three times: 1 in 27
Four times: 1 in 81
Five times: 1 in 243
Six times: 1 in 729
Seven times: 1 in 2,187
Eight times: 1 in 6,561
Nine times: 1 in 19,683
Ten times: 1 in 59,049
Eleven times: 1 in 177,047

The major league record is apparently 19 times, against 4 pitchers, May 21, 1952, Dodgers against Reds, 1st inning, resulting in 15 runs. Odds: 1 in 1,162,261,467.

Groundout, BB, HR, 2B, BB, 1B, CS, BB, 1B, 1B, 1B, 1B, BB, HBP, 1B, BB, BB, 1B, 1B, HBP, BB, K.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...95205210.shtml


So maybe it wasn't so bad after all.

[Sweed]

I agree with BradK that there is the possibility of bad streaks in a game. I too think it's a streak under the hood that can keep snowballing unless you get a "lucky" play behind you to break it up. Even then I think it can still continue.

To me it's like hot/cold streaks and how they can continue to get worse and worse until, let's just go with the batter, finally bloops a single and the cold streak, under the hood, may not stop but it doesn't "grow". Batter puts together two "normal" games and the cold streak ends. Like your one game melt down I don't think there is a setting per se that makes this happen. It is bad dice roll upon bad dice roll having a temporary affect on the P's skill/mood etc. that can lead to the wheels falling off in that game.

How to get out of it? Good question.

In a game meltdown like yours it's harder to have an effect, or even know if what you did did have an effect. What I do is try different things and hope. First identify that it's all going wrong for the P in the game and get him out of there. Also use pitch around more, especially against a batter with low eye and hope he chases for a K. Or try pitch to contact, especially against a batter with low contact, hoping the ball is hit weakly right at someone. Anything different to try to put a stop to the bleeding. At the end of the day sometimes nothing works because it's just "one of those games".

It's similar to what I do for batters or pitchers in cold streaks. Using a batter as the example, I try to put him into a situation that makes success more likely. IE LHB face RHP, avoiding ace SP's unless he has had previous success against them, while making sure he gets out there to face a team's #5 SP. Get him a hit or two and hopefully break the slump.

[eauhomme]

And now, 9 days later, a second 8-run inning, all by the bullpen, and miraculously this team is still only 4th in bullpen ERA, 2nd in ERA overall. And this was with a 9-0 lead, turned into 9-8, bases left loaded after I brought in both closers in the 7th. And entirely different pitchers this time (Speier in the minors, Faucher gassed from previous game, Herz was a starter).

Connor Cooke: HR, BB, 2-run HR
Tanner McDougal: Flyout, foul E3, 1B, BB, RBI 2B, 3-run HR
Robert Garcia: K, 1B, HBP, RBI 1B, BB
Andres Munoz: K

The team held on to win 10-8.

[Brad K]

How often do you get an inning like that as the batting team?

[eauhomme]

It has happened. Maybe I'll go back and look, since I generally make notes in the "Edit Recap" when an inning is highly unusual.