Understanding Minor League Performance in OOTP 26

[jpeters1734]

Updated post on 26 June 25:


I want to share something I’ve been noticing in OOTP 26 that has real implications for how we evaluate minor league performance. After seeing some unusual stat lines in my saves, I began running a series of tests to better understand how the minor league sim engine works this year.

What I found is that potential ratings now influence statistical output in the minors, The higher the potential, the greater the effect. To highlight that, I ran a controlled test: I created a player with all 1s in current ratings and maxed-out potential, then locked him into Triple A. Over a full season, he slashed .303/.380/.529 with 26 HRs and 2.8 WAR. That stat line would suggest a player who’s ready for the majors, but this one had no actual present-day ability.

This isn’t just a one-off. It’s one example that illustrates a broader pattern I’ve observed across multiple scenarios: players with high potential consistently produce better minor league stats than players with equal current ratings but lower ceilings. That’s new in OOTP 26. In previous versions, performance was more clearly driven by current ratings alone.

This change was intentional and related to the AI improvements mentioned in the change log. It alters how users interpret stats, and that’s worth discussing, especially since it wasn’t specifically called out. If you’re someone who relies on minor league performance as part of your decision making, it’s important to understand that those numbers may now reflect future potential as much as current ability.

Reason for edit: Reframed post to focus on informing the community and clarified tone to reflect observation rather than criticism.

[jpeters1734]

Edited: removed and updated thoughts in post above

[Guthrien]

I definitely think ratings are more important than stats, I would never let stats be my only identifying factor for promotion. That said, I've had plenty of players who had 60-80 potential completely under water in leagues they were overmatched in. Something else is going on with your setup, flat out. Just because your player has 80 POT (or 5 stars, gross), is not enough to make them excel in higher leagues.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by Guthrien

I definitely think ratings are more important than stats, I would never let stats be my only identifying factor for promotion. That said, I've had plenty of players who had 60-80 potential completely under water in leagues they were overmatched in. Something else is going on with your setup, flat out. Just because your player has 80 POT (or 5 stars, gross), is not enough to make them excel in higher leagues.

test it yourself

[philthepat]

Ok so I filled the ChiSox AAA team with a bunch of newly created teenagers, all with 1 current ratings and 600 potential. I did this for the whole roster, so pitchers and hitters. I locked them all into AAA and turned off injuries. Didn't change any development settings at all.


This is what the stats looked like at the end of the season:

[WhiskyTango]

The pitching speaks for itself but I'd say most of the batters are over-performing.

[mr-cpu-geek]

But shouldn’t a 80 potential player over-perform to some degree? The talent is there. Just not ready for the big show.

That is what the scouts are for. Many times in real like I’ll see a player killing it in the minors that never gets the time of day in the majors. Thats because even thought they are playing good, they aren’t grading out to be able to do that at the major league level.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Garlon]

Those batters combine for -2.4 WAR. Even though they may have started with current ratings of 1, what were their current ratings at the end of the season?

[philthepat]

Originally Posted by Garlon

Those batters combine for -2.4 WAR. Even though they may have started with current ratings of 1, what were their current ratings at the end of the season?

Almost none of their current ratings went above 50 by the end of the season.


They were also the worst offensive team in the International League, despite most of the individual stats looking very good.



Kinda interesting anyway... I think.

[WhiskyTango]

1. Shouldn't a player with current ability of 1 be overmatched in AAA? You start a teenager with a 1 rating in AAA and by end of season he doesn't show he spent the season entirely overmatched? I guess I play it wrong because I'd just assume he'd be better off in rookie ball for at least a season, then move him up to A for the rest of the year but I guess not.

2. The batting performances should immediately be reading like the pitching lines, particularly when considering it's batting that the player needs to take the most time learning. That's my understanding how of the (actual) game is played. But in OOTP the batting is pretty much picked up early, it's the tricky fly balls and bouncy grounders that hold them back?

[hockey31]

I'll just comment my two cents and minor crash out reading these comments. The fact this is a discussion topic is ridiculous, this game feels broken constantly, it has for the past few years. After a decade of playing, the past couple releases have been a massive let down, and for the worst reasons. Basic issues going unaddressed etc, it feels like another madden game. No improvement to bugs/fixes needed, weird development/regression. This is my first negative post on here ever, I'm just tired of watching this game add features that don't work, and never addressing real issues. They can't fix this basic problem, but hey we got the hall of fame tour and perfect team makes the company their money. This game has gone so downhill it's embarrassing, SGT Mushroom was right on his recent release on the present and future of OOTP. Once again, this sucks to type out as a player of 15+ years, I loved this game and looked forward to it yearly. RIP to developers caring about single player mode players, it was a good run! Mild crash out and rant apologies.

[hockey31]

Can't wait for the 65th patch to come out! wish i never bought this game. The streak ends next season unfortunately, done wasting time trying to test what settings work and which don't. Half assed game madden 2.0

Thank you to Cards fan for his roster releases, it's the only thing that's kept me in it. It's hilarious a guy uninvolved can put together a better roster than the company, here's a thought, pay him since he actually does work that helps the consumer.

[mytreds]

If true, I wonder how far back this issue persists with previous versions of the game.

[Guthrien]

Yea, I apologize JPeters, I guess you wouldn't notice it completely if you're going off of rating and not a whole roster. I don't think there's much excuse for that, it would look irrelevant where you let your batter sit for a season. Which is weird because like I said, many many times I've had those players misplaced and they performed like crap. If as phil above showed, it's odd they did worst in league. Raising by "50" shows that it's purely a matter of at bats to develop, not the quality. Maybe managing minors is a waste of time. Pretty convincing and disappointing.

Maybe should use those crappy reserve minors like in historical play (not using minor leagues) or just edit my game to have one giant ass minors team for each MLB club.

[dodgerblue88]

Oh boy, interesting find. I’ve always noticed a definite trend in minor league stats that tends to translate well into major league success, but this is certainly eye-opening. It changes the way I fundamentally play the game.

[Guthrien]

Originally Posted by dodgerblue88

Oh boy, interesting find. I’ve always noticed a definite trend in minor league stats that tends to translate well into major league success, but this is certainly eye-opening. It changes the way I fundamentally play the game.

This. You know how much talk has been given over to proper movement in your minor leagues? Not just here. Frankly if it's this simple it's kind of embarrassing it wasn't focused on before. It does still make me wonder why I haven't noticed worse ranked players having equitable stats/development. Hard to argue with tests.

[RosasCantina]

possibly related:

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=363585

this is my thread about minor league stats... the current sim engine, with no settings changes, produces minor league stats that are far too high on offense. For example, I just ran a 2025 sim (no settings changes at all) and the league average slash line in the International League was .275/.365/.458, which is roughly 60 points of OPS higher than the real-life league average last year.

IOW, if your league is experiencing the same phenomenon, the 1 overall player in question might in fact be performing closer to league average despite the raw stats looking great. And that might also partially explain Phil's observation that the individual player stats look quite good but the team was one of the worst offenses in the league.

Even with that being said: should a player with 1 in every offensive rating be able to perform at an above-league-average level in AAA? Seems weird—my gut says no.

Also, this needs to be tested with "control" players that have, in addition to 1 current ratings, a potential rating of 1 in every category... then we can compare the results of the 1 potential group with that of the 600 potential group to determine whether the potential is actually contributing to minor league production.

[dodgerblue88]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

I just discovered that minor league stats in OOTP don’t mean a damn thing and it has completely changed how I view this game.

I ran a test where I manually edited a player; I maxed out his potential ratings at 600 while giving him straight 1s across the board for every current rating. I put him in Triple-A just to see what would happen.

The result? He slashed .303/.380/.529 with 26 HRs and a 2.8 WAR over 139 games. That’s an OPS over .900 from a player with literally no current ability.

Why? Because the minor league engine clearly uses potential in combination with current ratings to simulate performance. That completely undermines any evaluation you might try to do using stats alone. If I were a “stats only” player, I’d look at this and assume he’s Major League ready. He’s absolutely not.

This isn’t just flawed, it’s actively misleading. Minor league performance should reflect current ability. Potential should only matter for development and scouting. But instead, you get fantasy output based on what the player might be someday.

Until that changes, don’t trust the numbers. They’re junk.

Does your minor league use autocalc or lock League total stats? I'm curious how either setting would impact the behavior

[philthepat]

Ok I did another quick test.


I created a player with all 1 current, 600 potential. I gave him average ratings across the board for all other things like speed, defense, personailty etc. Put him on the Charlotte Knights.


His stats:
.268/.363/.450
26 2B
5 3B
17 HR
3.4 WAR


I also created a player who had 1 current, 440 potential with the same ratings as the first player for everything else. So not a 'super' player, but something closer to what you might sign as an international amateur FA


His stats:
.195/.256/.289
13 2B
4 3B
9 HR
-2.1 WAR


Also, a player as above but with 1 current and 1 potential for hitting stats, same ratings for everything else as above


His stats:
.072/.097/.081
2 2B
0 3B
1 HR
-8.9 WAR


And just for curiosities sake... I cloned the first player (Mr 1/600) and locked him onto the major league roster.


His stats:
.068/.073/.078
0 2B
1 3B
1 HR
-6.6 WAR


Make of that what you will.

[low]

This is bad for those that play stats-only. Very bad.